Here's Why GEPIC Energy Development (SZSE:000791) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden
Here's Why GEPIC Energy Development (SZSE:000791) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that GEPIC Energy Development Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000791) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
有人說,波動性,而不是債務,是投資者思考風險的最佳方式,但禾倫·巴菲特曾說過一句名言:“波動性遠非風險的代名詞。”當我們考慮一家公司的風險時,我們總是喜歡考慮其債務的用途,因爲債務過載可能導致破產。我們注意到,GEPIC能源開發有限公司(深圳證券交易所代碼:000791)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但真正的問題是這筆債務是否使公司面臨風險。
When Is Debt Dangerous?
債務何時危險?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
債務可以幫助企業,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是新資本還是自由現金流。在最壞的情況下,如果公司無法向債權人付款,它可能會破產。但是,更常見(但仍然令人痛苦)的情況是,它必須以低廉的價格籌集新的股本,從而永久稀釋股東。但是,通過取代稀釋,債務可以成爲需要資本以高回報率投資增長的企業的極好工具。考慮公司的債務水平的第一步是同時考慮其現金和債務。
How Much Debt Does GEPIC Energy Development Carry?
GEPIC能源開發揹負了多少債務?
As you can see below, GEPIC Energy Development had CN¥10.4b of debt, at September 2023, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it also had CN¥1.56b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥8.87b.
如下所示,截至2023年9月,GEPIC能源開發公司有104億元人民幣的債務,與前一年大致相同。您可以單擊圖表以獲取更多詳細信息。但是,它也有15.6億元的現金,因此其淨負債爲88.7億元人民幣。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240320/0-5ebf669b0ab3ccd7f49d3950990a9bad-0-ee365b05aa5a60c25b5d2875a18b23f3.png/big)
How Strong Is GEPIC Energy Development's Balance Sheet?
GEPIC能源開發公司的資產負債表有多強?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that GEPIC Energy Development had liabilities of CN¥2.78b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥8.96b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.56b and CN¥2.01b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥8.18b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
放大最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到,GEPIC能源開發公司的負債爲27.8億元人民幣,12個月後到期的負債爲89.6億元人民幣。另一方面,它有15.6億元人民幣的現金和價值201億元人民幣的應收賬款將在一年內到期。因此,其負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的總額高出81.8億元人民幣。
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of CN¥9.12b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
相對於其912億元人民幣的市值,這是一座巨大的槓桿率。這表明,如果公司需要迅速支撐資產負債表,股東將被嚴重稀釋。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
爲了擴大公司相對於收益的負債規模,我們計算其淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),將其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)除以利息支出(利息保障)。因此,我們將債務與收益的關係考慮在內,包括和不包括折舊和攤銷費用。
With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.3, it's fair to say GEPIC Energy Development does have a significant amount of debt. However, its interest coverage of 3.5 is reasonably strong, which is a good sign. On a lighter note, we note that GEPIC Energy Development grew its EBIT by 29% in the last year. If sustained, this growth should make that debt evaporate like a scarce drinking water during an unnaturally hot summer. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since GEPIC Energy Development will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
GEPIC能源開發公司的淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比率爲5.3,可以公平地說,確實有大量債務。但是,其3.5的利息覆蓋率相當強,這是一個好兆頭。簡而言之,我們注意到GEPIC能源開發公司的息稅前利潤在去年增長了29%。如果持續下去,這種增長應該使債務在異常炎熱的夏天像稀缺的飲用水一樣蒸發。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是你不能完全孤立地看待債務;因爲GEPIC能源開發需要收益來償還債務。因此,如果你想進一步了解其收益,可能值得看看這張長期收益趨勢圖。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, GEPIC Energy Development recorded free cash flow of 39% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
最後,儘管稅務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冷硬現金。因此,我們總是檢查息稅前利潤中有多少轉化爲自由現金流。縱觀最近三年,GEPIC能源開發公司的自由現金流佔其息稅前利潤的39%,低於我們的預期。在償還債務方面,這並不好。
Our View
我們的觀點
GEPIC Energy Development's net debt to EBITDA and level of total liabilities definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But its EBIT growth rate tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that GEPIC Energy Development is taking some risks with its use of debt. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example GEPIC Energy Development has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are significant) we think you should know about.
在我們看來,GEPIC能源開發公司的淨負債佔息稅折舊攤銷前利潤和總負債水平無疑對其造成了壓力。但其息稅前利潤增長率卻是一個截然不同的故事,也表明了一定的彈性。當我們考慮所討論的所有因素時,在我們看來,GEPIC能源開發公司在使用債務方面正在冒一些風險。因此,儘管這種槓桿率確實提高了股本回報率,但我們真的不希望看到它從現在開始增加。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。例如,GEPIC 能源開發有 3 個警告信號(以及 2 個重要信號),我們認爲你應該知道。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
當一切都說完之後,有時更容易將注意力集中在甚至不需要債務的公司上。讀者現在可以100%免費訪問淨負債爲零的成長型股票清單。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。