Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. Just Missed EPS By 8.0%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. Just Missed EPS By 8.0%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
As you might know, Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600096) last week released its latest annual, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Yunnan Yuntianhua missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of CN¥69b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.47, falling short by 3.3% and 8.0% respectively. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
你可能知道,雲南雲天化股份有限公司(SHSE: 600096)上週發佈了最新的年度報告,但對股東來說,情況並不那麼好。雲南雲天化未達到分析師的預期,收入爲690億元人民幣,法定每股收益(EPS)爲2.47元人民幣,分別下降3.3%和8.0%。分析師通常會在每份收益報告中更新他們的預測,我們可以從他們的估計中判斷他們對公司的看法是否發生了變化,或者是否有任何新的問題需要注意。根據這些結果,我們收集了最新的法定預測,以了解分析師是否改變了盈利模式。
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Yunnan Yuntianhua's seven analysts is for revenues of CN¥71.3b in 2024. This would reflect a modest 3.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 6.0% to CN¥2.61. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥73.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.87 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.
考慮到最新業績,雲南雲天化的七位分析師目前的共識是,2024年的收入爲713億元人民幣。這將反映其在過去12個月中收入略有增長3.2%。預計每股法定收益將增長6.0%,至2.61元人民幣。在本報告發布之前,分析師一直在模擬2024年的收入爲733億元人民幣,每股收益(EPS)爲2.87元人民幣。很明顯,在最新業績公佈後,悲觀情緒已經抬頭,導致收入前景疲軟,每股收益預期略有下調。
The consensus price target fell 17% to CN¥23.25, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Yunnan Yuntianhua, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥24.00 and the most bearish at CN¥22.50 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
共識目標股價下跌17%,至23.25元人民幣,疲軟的盈利前景顯然領先於估值預期。但是,固定單一價格目標可能是不明智的,因爲共識目標實際上是分析師目標股價的平均值。因此,一些投資者喜歡查看估計範圍,看看對公司的估值是否有任何分歧。對雲南雲天化有一些不同的看法,最看漲的分析師將其估值爲24.00元人民幣,最看跌的爲每股22.50元人民幣。由於估值範圍如此狹窄,分析師顯然對他們認爲的業務價值有相似的看法。
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Yunnan Yuntianhua's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 7.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Yunnan Yuntianhua is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
當然,看待這些預測的另一種方法是將它們與行業本身聯繫起來。我們要強調的是,雲南雲天化的收入增長預計將放緩,預計到2024年底的年化增長率爲3.2%,遠低於過去五年7.8%的歷史年增長率。相比之下,該行業中其他有分析師報道的公司的收入預計將以每年17%的速度增長。考慮到預計增長放緩,很明顯,雲南雲天化的增長預計也將低於其他行業參與者。
The Bottom Line
底線
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Yunnan Yuntianhua. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
最大的擔憂是,分析師下調了每股收益的預期,這表明雲南雲天化可能會面臨業務不利因素。不幸的是,他們還下調了收入預期,我們的數據顯示,與整個行業相比,表現不佳。即便如此,每股收益對業務的內在價值更爲重要。此外,分析師還下調了目標股價,這表明最新消息加劇了人們對業務內在價值的悲觀情緒。
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Yunnan Yuntianhua going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
考慮到這一點,我們仍然認爲該業務的長期發展軌跡對於投資者來說更爲重要。我們對雲南雲天化到2026年的發展做出了預測,你可以在我們的平台上免費看到這些預測。
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Yunnan Yuntianhua that you need to take into consideration.
還值得注意的是,我們已經發現了雲南雲天化的兩個警示信號,你需要考慮。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。