Jerome Powell Says Fed Doesn't 'Need To Be In A Hurry To Cut' Interest Rates: Odds Of June Reduction Jump In Prediction Market
Jerome Powell Says Fed Doesn't 'Need To Be In A Hurry To Cut' Interest Rates: Odds Of June Reduction Jump In Prediction Market
The monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report Friday showed inflation rising in the month of February, which could impact the timing of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
週五的月度個人消費支出（PCE）報告顯示，2月份的通貨膨脹率上升，這可能會影響聯儲局未來降息的時機。
Here's what Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said Friday about the latest inflation data — and what could come next.
以下是聯儲局傑羅姆·鮑威爾週五對最新通脹數據所說的話——以及接下來可能發生的事情。
What Happened: The headline PCE price index was up 2.5% annually in February, higher than the 2.4% reported in January. The figure was in line with estimates.
發生了什麼：2月份總體個人消費支出價格指數每年上漲2.5％，高於1月份公佈的2.4％。這個數字與估計一致。
Month-over-month, the PCE index rose 0.3%.
個人消費支出指數環比上漲0.3％。
Personal spending in the report was up 0.8%, which was ahead of estimates and higher than the 0.2% increase reported in January.
報告中的個人支出增長了0.8％，超出了預期，高於1月份公佈的0.2％的增長。
The core price index was up 2.8% on an annual rate, also in line with estimates. This figure takes out food and energy prices, which are more volatile.
核心價格指數按年率上漲2.8％，也符合預期。這個數字列出了波動性更大的食品和能源價格。
Powell said that the report won't lead to a rush by the Federal Reserve to cut rates.
鮑威爾表示，該報告不會導致聯儲局急於降息。
"We don't need to be in a hurry to cut," Powell said Friday, as reported by Bloomberg.
彭博社報道，鮑威爾週五表示：“我們不必急於削減。”
Powell said the newly reported inflation data is "in line with our expectations."
鮑威爾說，新公佈的通貨膨脹數據 “符合我們的預期”。
Going forward, Powell said the Federal Reserve will cut rates when inflation is on track to hit a 2% goal laid out by the financial governing body.
展望未來，鮑威爾表示，當通貨膨脹有望達到金融管理機構設定的2％的目標時，聯儲局將降息。
"It's good to see something coming in in line with expectations."
“很高興看到一些東西符合預期。”
Powell called the road to 2% inflation a "sometimes bumpy path" in his remarks.
鮑威爾在講話中稱通往2％的通脹之路是 “有時是坎坷的道路”。
Related Link: Sticky Inflation Persists: Fed's Preferred Measure Climbs, Analysts Sound Off
相關鏈接：粘性通貨膨脹持續存在：聯儲局的首選指標攀升，分析師大聲疾呼
What's Next: Estimates for rate cuts in 2024 by experts and industry analysts have been shifting based on recent inflation data. Most experts anticipate three rate cuts coming in 2024.
下一步是什麼：根據最近的通脹數據，專家和行業分析師對2024年降息的估計一直在變化。大多數專家預計，2024年將有三次降息。
One big question remains: whether the first rate cut will occur in May, June or even later.
仍然存在一個大問題：首次降息是否會在5月、6月甚至更晚發生。
Crypto prediction market Polymarket offers betting on items in categories such as politics, the Middle East, sports, cryptocurrency, pop culture, business and science.
加密預測市場 Polymarket 提供對政治、中東、體育、加密貨幣、流行文化、商業和科學等類別的項目的投注。
A prediction market for when the first rate cut from the Federal Reserve will take place has attracted millions of dollars in wagers.
聯儲局何時首次降息的預測市場吸引了數百萬美元的賭注。
On Polymarket, users deposit to Polygon (CRYPOT:MATIC) using USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) and can deposit with Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) or from crypto accounts.
在Polymarket上，用戶使用USDC（加密貨幣：USDC）向Polygon（CRYPOT: MATIC）存款，並且可以使用以太坊（加密貨幣：ETH）或加密賬戶進行存款。
Each betting market cashes out at $1 for the option(s) that ends up being the winner.
每個投注市場以1美元兌現最終成爲贏家的期權。
The market for "Fed Rate Cut By...? Has the following options as of Friday, with the percentage odds of the event occurring listed. The odds as they stood prior to the Fed's March meeting are in parentheses.
“聯儲局降息...？截至週五有以下選項，並列出了事件發生的百分比幾率。括號中列出了聯儲局3月會議之前的賠率。
May 1: 9% (10%)
5 月 1 日：9% (10%)
June 12: 63% (52%)
6 月 12 日：63% (52%)
July 31: 81% (78%)
7 月 31 日：81% (78%)
Sept. 8: 86% (89%)
9 月 8 日：86% (89%)
Nov. 7: 92% (90%)
11 月 7 日：92% (90%)
Dec. 18: 92% (93%)
12 月 18 日：92％（93％）
The latest inflation data has led to more crypto bettors wagering on a rate cut coming by June 12, with 63% betting on this date. The percenaget of people betting on a Fed cut by July 31 has also increased.
最新的通貨膨脹數據導致更多的加密貨幣博彩玩家押注6月12日之前將降息，有63％的人押注這一日期。押注聯儲局在7月31日之前削減開支的人的比例也有所增加。
Based on comments from economists and the crypto betting market, June is the heavy favorite for a first rate cut.
根據經濟學家和加密博彩市場的評論，6月是首次降息的重中之重。
Jerome Powell and Wall Street illustration. Photo: Federalreserve/Flickr Photo: Bylolo/Unsplash.
傑羅姆·鮑威爾和華爾街的插圖。照片：聯儲局/Flickr 照片：Bylolo/Unsplash。