Hanhua Financial Holding Co., Ltd. (HKG:3903) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 32% share price drop in the last month. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 26% share price drop.
Although its price has dipped substantially, Hanhua Financial Holding's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 34.6x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 8x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
Hanhua Financial Holding certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Hanhua Financial Holding's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
Hanhua Financial Holding's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 91%. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 79% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 21% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.
In light of this, it's alarming that Hanhua Financial Holding's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Key Takeaway
Even after such a strong price drop, Hanhua Financial Holding's P/E still exceeds the rest of the market significantly. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
We've established that Hanhua Financial Holding currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Hanhua Financial Holding you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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