The Baltimore bridge disaster has opened a brief opportunity for Australian coal exporters to fill a big gap in Indian coal imports -- especially coal needed by brick makers in the world's most populous nation.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) says around 14 million tonnes of thermal coal was sent to Indian buyers in 2023 from Baltimore and the disappearance of that tonnage will have an impact on the supply-demand balance in Asia and the Indian Ocean markets, and on prices if it persists.
Seven million tonnes of steelmaking met coal was sold into the Japanese and other Asian markets, such as South Korea, and Australian exporters should be able to pick up those shortfalls very easily, if only for a month or three.
Companies like Glencore, BHP, Stanmore, Whitehaven and Yancoal could be possible suppliers.
Thermal coal futures prices in Newcastle (the major pricing point for high-quality steaming coal) saw prices rise a solid $US6 a tonne last week to around $US132 to $US134 a tonne with the 5% plus gain -- all coming after the container ship ran down the bridge in Baltimore Harbour.
The EIA said in a note on Thursday that "Baltimore is responsible for an outsize share of coal shipments to the rest of the world, with India an especially large destination. An extended disruption to the port could mean a supply shock that extends to Asia and potentially reverberates back into global supply chains."
There was talk over the Easter break of Indian traders looking for emergency tonnes from Indonesia and Australia.
A handful of Australian companies produce the high-grade thermal coal Indian brick-makers and some other consumers buy from the US. Indonesia could supply, but its coal is heavily sold to China and mostly of poorer quality (and lower price) than the US coal.
The Indian buyers would be buying from nearby Indonesia if it were a question of price, but the more expensive US (and Australian) thermal coals are higher quality and less polluting.
Baltimore is home to two coal export terminals, one owned by railroad giant CSX and the other by miner Consol Energy subsidiary Consolidated Coal.
The two terminals are on the inside of the port and the collapsed bridge -- thanks to the 90,000-plus tonne container ship, Dali, ramming a support pier -- are unable to service markets.
That will remain the case until the port re-opens. In the meantime, coal can be diverted to nearby Hampton Roads/Norfolk, but that will take time and add costs and will depend on port capacity.
Baltimore is the second-largest exporting hub for coal in the United States, accounting for 28% of total coal exports in 2023 and second only to Norfolk, Virginia, also known as Hampton Roads.
After shipping around 20 million tonnes a year up to 2022, exports from Baltimore surged to 28 million tonnes last year, "mainly because of growing demand for US coal in Asia," according to the EIA.
A total of 19 million tonnes of thermal coal was exports through Baltimore, with 14 million tonnes of that heading to India and the remainder to Europe and smaller markets. The remainder is coking coal for the steel industry -- mostly in Asia, led by Japan, and then Europe.
巴爾的摩橋樑災難爲澳大利亞煤炭出口商提供了短暫的機會,可以填補印度煤炭進口的巨大缺口,尤其是這個世界上人口最多的國家制磚商所需的煤炭。
美國能源信息管理局(EIA)表示,2023年從巴爾的摩向印度買家運送了約1400萬噸動力煤,該噸位的消失將影響亞洲和印度洋市場的供需平衡,如果這種情況持續下去,將影響價格。
700萬噸鍊鋼鐵煤炭銷往日本和其他亞洲市場,例如韓國,澳大利亞的出口商應該能夠很容易地彌補這些短缺,即使只持續一三個月。
嘉能可、必和必拓、Stanmore、Whitehaven和兗煤澳洲等公司可能成爲供應商。
上週,紐卡斯爾(高質量蒸汽煤的主要定價點)的動力煤期貨價格穩步上漲每噸6美元,至每噸132美元至134美元左右,漲幅超過5%,所有這些都是在集裝箱船在巴爾的摩港撞下橋之後發生的。
環境影響評估在週四的一份報告中表示:“巴爾的摩在向世界其他地區的煤炭運輸中佔有很大份額,印度是一個特別大的目的地。港口的長期中斷可能意味着供應衝擊延伸到亞洲,並有可能迴盪到全球供應鏈。”
關於復活節假期,有傳言稱印度貿易商正在從印度尼西亞和澳大利亞尋找應急物資。
少數澳大利亞公司生產印度制磚商和其他一些消費者從美國購買的高品位動力煤。印度尼西亞可以供應,但其煤炭大量銷往中國,而且大多數煤炭質量差(價格也低於美國的煤炭)。
如果是價格問題,印度買家會從附近的印度尼西亞購買,但是更昂貴的美國(和澳大利亞)熱能煤質量更高,污染更少。
巴爾的摩有兩個煤炭出口碼頭,一個歸鐵路巨頭CSX所有,另一個歸礦業公司康索爾能源子公司聯合煤炭所有。
這兩個碼頭位於港口內部,由於9萬多噸的集裝箱船達利撞上支撐碼頭,這座倒塌的橋無法爲市場提供服務。
在港口重新開放之前,情況將保持不變。同時,煤炭可以轉移到附近的漢普頓路/諾福克,但這將花費時間並增加成本,並且將取決於港口的容量。
巴爾的摩是美國第二大煤炭出口中心,佔2023年煤炭出口總額的28%,僅次於弗吉尼亞州的諾福克,也稱爲漢普頓路。
環境影響評估稱,截至2022年,巴爾的摩每年出貨約2000萬噸,去年巴爾的摩的出口激增至2,800萬噸,“這主要是由於亞洲對美國煤炭的需求不斷增長”。
通過巴爾的摩共出口了1900萬噸動力煤,其中1400萬噸銷往印度,其餘銷往歐洲和較小的市場。其餘的是爲鋼鐵行業煉焦煤——主要在亞洲,以日本爲首,然後是歐洲。