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We Think Zhejiang Wansheng (SHSE:603010) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

We Think Zhejiang Wansheng (SHSE:603010) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

我們認爲浙江萬盛(SHSE: 603010)正在爲債務承擔一些風險
Simply Wall St ·  04/03 18:10

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Zhejiang Wansheng Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603010) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

大衛·伊本說得好,他說:“波動性不是我們關心的風險。我們關心的是避免資本的永久損失。”因此,很明顯,當你考慮任何給定股票的風險時,你需要考慮債務,因爲過多的債務會使公司陷入困境。我們注意到,浙江萬盛股份有限公司(SHSE: 603010)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但更重要的問題是:這筆債務會帶來多大的風險?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

爲什麼債務會帶來風險?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

一般而言,只有當公司無法通過籌集資金或利用自己的現金流輕鬆還清債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題。資本主義的重要部分是 “創造性破壞” 的過程,在這個過程中,倒閉的企業被銀行家無情地清算。但是,更頻繁(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,公司必須以低廉的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東,以支撐其資產負債表。當然,債務的好處是它通常代表廉價資本,尤其是當它用高回報率進行再投資的能力取代了公司的稀釋時。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,要做的第一件事是將其現金和債務放在一起考慮。

What Is Zhejiang Wansheng's Net Debt?

浙江萬盛的淨負債是多少?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2023 Zhejiang Wansheng had CN¥828.2m of debt, an increase on CN¥780.3m, over one year. But on the other hand it also has CN¥1.32b in cash, leading to a CN¥492.3m net cash position.

你可以點擊下圖查看歷史數字,但它顯示,截至2023年12月,浙江萬盛在一年內有8.282億元人民幣的債務,比7.803億元人民幣的債務有所增加。但另一方面,它也有13.2億元人民幣的現金,淨現金狀況爲4.923億元人民幣。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SHSE:603010 Debt to Equity History April 3rd 2024
SHSE: 603010 2024 年 4 月 3 日債務與股權比率的歷史記錄

How Healthy Is Zhejiang Wansheng's Balance Sheet?

浙江萬盛的資產負債表有多健康?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Zhejiang Wansheng had liabilities of CN¥1.19b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥923.0m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.32b and CN¥567.5m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥220.7m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

我們可以從最新的資產負債表中看出,浙江萬盛的負債爲11.9億元人民幣將在一年內到期,在此之後到期的負債爲9.23億元人民幣。另一方面,它有一年內到期的現金爲13.2億元人民幣,還有價值5.675億元人民幣的應收賬款。因此,它的負債總額比現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出2.207億元人民幣。

Given Zhejiang Wansheng has a market capitalization of CN¥5.68b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Zhejiang Wansheng also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.

鑑於浙江萬盛的市值爲56.8億元人民幣,很難相信這些負債會構成很大的威脅。但是,我們確實認爲值得關注其資產負債表的實力,因爲它可能會隨着時間的推移而發生變化。儘管它確實有值得注意的負債,但浙江萬盛的現金也多於債務,因此我們非常有信心它可以安全地管理債務。

It is just as well that Zhejiang Wansheng's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 49% over the last year. When it comes to paying off debt, falling earnings are no more useful than sugary sodas are for your health. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Zhejiang Wansheng can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

浙江萬盛的負荷也不是太重,因爲其息稅前利潤比去年下降了49%。在還清債務方面,收入下降對健康的作用並不比含糖的蘇打水更有用。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但最終,該業務的未來盈利能力將決定浙江萬盛能否隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. Zhejiang Wansheng may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the last three years, Zhejiang Wansheng saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

最後,儘管稅務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冷硬現金。浙江萬盛的資產負債表上可能有淨現金,但看看該企業如何將其利息稅前收益(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流仍然很有趣,因爲這將影響其對債務的需求和管理能力。在過去的三年中,浙江萬盛的自由現金流總額爲負數。儘管投資者無疑預計這種情況將在適當的時候逆轉,但這顯然意味着其使用債務的風險更大。

Summing Up

總結

While it is always sensible to look at a company's total liabilities, it is very reassuring that Zhejiang Wansheng has CN¥492.3m in net cash. So while Zhejiang Wansheng does not have a great balance sheet, it's certainly not too bad. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Zhejiang Wansheng is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

儘管查看公司的總負債總是明智的,但令人欣慰的是,浙江萬盛擁有4.923億元人民幣的淨現金。因此,儘管浙江萬盛的資產負債表不佳,但肯定還不錯。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但歸根結底,每家公司都可以控制資產負債表之外存在的風險。請注意,浙江萬盛在我們的投資分析中顯示出兩個警告信號,您應該知道...

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

當一切都說完之後,有時更容易將注意力集中在甚至不需要債務的公司上。讀者現在可以100%免費訪問淨負債爲零的成長型股票清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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