Crypto Analyst Unveils Reasons Behind Latest Altcoin Crash, Forecasts Rebound Amid Turmoil
Crypto Analyst Unveils Reasons Behind Latest Altcoin Crash, Forecasts Rebound Amid Turmoil
The crypto analyst known for accurately predicting the end of Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) bull market in 2021 has shared insights into the recent downturn in the altcoin market.
這位以準確預測2021年比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）牛市結束而聞名的加密分析師分享了對山寨幣市場近期低迷的見解。
On Friday, pseudonymous crypto strategist Pentoshi shared his view on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the recent altcoin crash can be attributed to simple supply and demand dynamics combined with a loss of momentum.
週五，化名加密策略師Pentoshi在X（前身爲Twitter）上分享了他的觀點，即最近的山寨幣暴跌可以歸因於簡單的供需動態以及動能的喪失。
Pentoshi explained that the frequent launch of new altcoins diluted demand. This saturation led to a scenario where around $200 million a day in new money inflows was necessary to sustain current prices.
Pentoshi解釋說，新山寨幣的頻繁推出稀釋了需求。這種飽和導致了這樣一種情景，即每天需要約2億美元的新資金流入才能維持當前的價格。
Eventually, supply outpaced demand, leading to sharp declines in the market, he said.
他說，最終，供應超過了需求，導致市場急劇下跌。
"We got to the point where there were a lot of new coins launching daily and each one needed more and more liquidity to support it. At one point, it needed around $200 million a day of new money inflows to support current prices," Pentoshi said in a post highlighting the imbalance that precipitated the crash.
“我們到了每天都有很多新硬幣發行的地步，每種硬幣都需要越來越多的流動性來支持。有一次，它每天需要約2億美元的新資金流入來支撐當前的價格。” 彭託希在一篇文章中說，他強調了導致暴跌的不平衡。
I always relate markets to sports or a game
Why bc you play both offense and defense and there are huge momentum shifts
At times you can feel the momentum waning and at this point momentum swings the other way. Even if only temprorary
So what happened here? I think for the... pic.twitter.com/RLnLMpjDKy— Pentoshi euroPeng � (@Pentosh1) April 12, 2024
我總是將市場與體育或遊戲聯繫起來
爲什麼 bc 你同時玩進攻和防守而且勢頭髮生了巨大的變化
有時你會感覺到勢頭減弱，此時動量反過來波動。即使只是暫時的
那麼這裏發生了什麼？我想對於... pic.twitter.com/rlnlmpjdky— Pentoshi EuroPeng (@Pentosh1) 2024 年 4 月 12 日
Despite this significant correction, Pentoshi remained optimistic about the broader crypto bull market's health.
儘管進行了重大修正，但Pentoshi仍對更廣泛的加密牛市的健康狀況持樂觀態度。
He emphasized that the downturn represents a local, not a macro, top and suggested that the market is far from reaching a point of "infinite supply" with no buyers left, which typically signals the end of a bull market.
他強調，經濟低迷代表的是局部高位，而不是宏觀經濟高位，並表示市場遠未達到 “無限供應”，沒有買家，這通常預示着牛市的結束。
"We reached a point of balance and then the other team took over temporarily," Pentoshi added.
彭託希補充說：“我們達到了平衡點，然後另一支隊伍暫時接手了。”
Pentoshi's analysis of TOTAL3, an index that tracks the value of the altcoin market, showed a roughly 30% drop from its 2024 peak of $788.85 billion to a low of $563.85 billion.
彭託希對追蹤山寨幣市場價值的指數 TOTAL3 的分析顯示，從2024年的峯值7888.5億美元跌至5638.5億美元的低點，下降了約30％。
However, he anticipated support at around $600 billion and predicted a rebound to a $1 trillion market valuation.
但是，他預計支撐位約爲6000億美元，並預測市場估值將反彈至1萬億美元。
"This isn't the macro top, in my opinion, just a local one," Pentoshi added.
彭託希補充說：“在我看來，這不是宏觀頂部，只是本地頂部。”
However, he cautioned that a change in this outlook would depend on significant shifts, such as Bitcoin losing market structure or substantial outflows from Bitcoin ETFs.
但是，他警告說，這種前景的變化將取決於重大變化，例如比特幣失去市場結構或比特幣ETF的大量資金流出。
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