share_log

Fujian Longking (SHSE:600388) Investors Are up 8.4% in the Past Week, but Earnings Have Declined Over the Last Three Years

Fujian Longking (SHSE:600388) Investors Are up 8.4% in the Past Week, but Earnings Have Declined Over the Last Three Years

福建龍工(SHSE: 600388)投資者在過去一週上漲了8.4%,但在過去三年中收益有所下降
Simply Wall St ·  04/14 22:34

One simple way to benefit from the stock market is to buy an index fund. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. Just take a look at Fujian Longking Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600388), which is up 53%, over three years, soundly beating the market decline of 21% (not including dividends).

從股票市場中獲益的一種簡單方法是購買指數基金。但是我們中的許多人敢於夢想獲得更大的回報,並自己建立投資組合。看看福建龍工股份有限公司(SHSE: 600388),該公司在三年內上漲了53%,大大超過了市場21%(不包括股息)的跌幅。

Since it's been a strong week for Fujian Longking shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.

由於對福建龍淨股東來說,這是強勁的一週,讓我們來看看長期基本面的走勢。

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

儘管一些人繼續教導高效市場假說,但事實證明,市場是反應過度的動態系統,投資者並不總是理性的。考慮市場對公司的看法發生了怎樣的變化的一種不完美但簡單的方法是將每股收益(EPS)的變化與股價走勢進行比較。

During the three years of share price growth, Fujian Longking actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 11% per year.

在股價增長的三年中,福建龍淨的每股收益(EPS)實際上每年下降11%。

Thus, it seems unlikely that the market is focussed on EPS growth at the moment. Given this situation, it makes sense to look at other metrics too.

因此,目前市場似乎不太可能專注於每股收益的增長。鑑於這種情況,也應該考慮其他指標。

Languishing at just 1.5%, we doubt the dividend is doing much to prop up the share price. It could be that the revenue growth of 3.2% per year is viewed as evidence that Fujian Longking is growing. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth, and maybe shareholder's faith in better days ahead will be rewarded.

股息僅爲1.5%,我們懷疑股息是否能在支撐股價方面起到多大作用。每年3.2%的收入增長可能被視爲福建龍淨增長的證據。在這種情況下,公司可能會犧牲當前的每股收益來推動增長,也許股東對未來更美好時光的信心將得到回報。

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

下圖描述了收入和收入隨時間推移而發生的變化(點擊圖片即可顯示確切的數值)。

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SHSE:600388 Earnings and Revenue Growth April 15th 2024
SHSE: 600388 2024 年 4 月 15 日收益和收入增長

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Fujian Longking will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

可能值得注意的是,首席執行官的薪水低於類似規模公司的中位數。始終值得關注首席執行官的薪酬,但更重要的問題是公司多年來是否會增加收益。因此,看看分析師認爲福建龍淨未來的收入(自由利潤預測)是很有意義的。

What About Dividends?

分紅呢?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Fujian Longking's TSR for the last 3 years was 61%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

在考慮投資回報時,重要的是要考慮兩者之間的區別 股東總回報 (TSR) 和 股價回報。股東總回報率是一種回報計算方法,它考慮了現金分紅的價值(假設收到的任何股息都經過再投資)以及任何貼現資本籌集和分拆的計算價值。可以說,股東總回報率更全面地描述了股票產生的回報。碰巧的是,福建龍淨過去3年的股東總回報率爲61%,超過了前面提到的股價回報率。而且,猜測股息支付在很大程度上解釋了這種分歧是沒有好處的!

A Different Perspective

不同的視角

While the broader market lost about 17% in the twelve months, Fujian Longking shareholders did even worse, losing 22% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 3%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Fujian Longking (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.

儘管整個市場在十二個月中下跌了約17%,但福建龍淨股東的表現甚至更糟,損失了22%(甚至包括股息)。話雖如此,在下跌的市場中,一些股票不可避免地會被超賣。關鍵是要密切關注基本發展。長期投資者不會那麼沮喪,因爲他們本可以在五年內每年賺3%。如果基本面數據繼續顯示長期可持續增長,那麼當前的拋售可能是一個值得考慮的機會。儘管市場狀況可能對股價產生的不同影響值得考慮,但還有其他因素更爲重要。比如風險。每家公司都有它們,我們已經發現了福建龍井的4個警示標誌(其中1個不容忽視!)你應該知道。

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

如果你想看看另一家公司——一家財務狀況可能優異的公司——那麼千萬不要錯過這份已經證明自己可以增加收益的公司的免費名單。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在中國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
    搶先評論