Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600993)
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600993)
Key Insights
關鍵見解
- The projected fair value for Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group is CN¥25.19 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group's CN¥25.77 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
- Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group's peers seem to be trading at a higher premium to fair value based onthe industry average of -12,571%
- 根據兩階段股權自由現金流,馬應龍藥業集團的預計公允價值爲25.19元人民幣
- 馬應龍製藥集團25.77元人民幣的股價表明其交易價格與其公允價值估計相似
- 根據行業平均水平-12,571%,美英龍製藥集團的同行似乎以更高的公允價值溢價進行交易
Does the April share price for Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600993) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
馬應龍藥業集團有限公司(SHSE: 600993)4月份的股價是否反映了其真正價值?今天,我們將通過採用預期的未來現金流並將其折現爲現值來估算股票的內在價值。這將使用折扣現金流 (DCF) 模型來完成。在你認爲自己無法理解之前,請繼續閱讀!實際上,它沒有你想象的那麼複雜。
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
公司可以在很多方面得到估值,因此我們要指出,DCF並不適合所有情況。對於那些熱衷於股票分析的人來說,你可能會對這裏的Simply Wall St分析模型感興趣。
The Calculation
計算結果
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我們將使用兩階段的DCF模型,顧名思義,該模型考慮了兩個增長階段。第一階段通常是較高的增長期,在第二個 “穩步增長” 時期逐漸趨於平穩,最終值是第二個 “穩定增長” 時期。首先,我們需要估計未來十年的現金流。鑑於我們沒有分析師對自由現金流的估計,我們從公司上次公佈的價值中推斷了之前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩其萎縮速度,而自由現金流不斷增長的公司在此期間的增長率將放緩。我們這樣做是爲了反映早期增長的放緩幅度往往比後來的幾年更大。
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
通常,我們假設今天的一美元比未來一美元更有價值,因此我們需要對這些未來現金流的總和進行折價才能得出現值估計:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
10 年自由現金流 (FCF) 預測
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥494.4m | CN¥507.0m | CN¥520.5m | CN¥534.8m | CN¥549.8m | CN¥565.5m | CN¥581.7m | CN¥598.6m | CN¥616.0m | CN¥633.9m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 2.38% | Est @ 2.55% | Est @ 2.67% | Est @ 2.75% | Est @ 2.81% | Est @ 2.85% | Est @ 2.87% | Est @ 2.89% | Est @ 2.91% | Est @ 2.92% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.4% | CN¥460 | CN¥439 | CN¥420 | CN¥401 | CN¥384 | CN¥368 | CN¥352 | CN¥337 | CN¥323 | CN¥309 |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
槓桿FCF(人民幣,百萬) | CN¥494.4m | 507.0 萬元人民幣 | 520.5 億人民幣 | 5.348 億元人民幣 | 5.49 億元人民幣 | 565.5 萬元人民幣 | 5.817億元人民幣 | 5.986 億元人民幣 | 6.16億元人民幣 | 6.339 億元人民幣 |
增長率估算來源 | Est @ 2.38% | Est @ 2.55% | Est @ 2.67% | Est @ 2.75% | Est @ 2.81% | 東部時間 @ 2.85% | Est @ 2.87% | Est @ 2.89% | Est @ 2.91% | Est @ 2.92% |
現值(人民幣,百萬)折扣價 @ 7.4% | 460 元人民幣 | CN¥439 | CN¥420 | CN¥401 | CN¥384 | CN¥368 | CN¥352 | CN¥337 | CN¥323 | CN¥309 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥3.8b
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估計的FCF增長率)
10年期現金流(PVCF)的現值 = 38億元人民幣
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.4%.
我們現在需要計算終值,該值涵蓋了這十年之後的所有未來現金流。出於多種原因,使用的增長率非常保守,不能超過一個國家的GDP增長。在這種情況下,我們使用10年期國債收益率的5年平均值(2.9%)來估計未來的增長。與10年 “增長” 期一樣,我們使用7.4%的股本成本將未來的現金流折現爲今天的價值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥634m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (7.4%– 2.9%) = CN¥14b
終端價值 (TV) = FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 6.34億元人民幣× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (7.4% — 2.9%) = 140億元人民幣
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥14b÷ ( 1 + 7.4%)10= CN¥7.1b
終端價值的現值 (PVTV) = 電視/ (1 + r)10= CN¥14b÷ (1 + 7.4%)10= 7.1億元人民幣
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥11b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥25.8, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
總價值是未來十年的現金流總額加上折後的終端價值,由此得出總權益價值,在本例中爲110億元人民幣。在最後一步中,我們將股票價值除以已發行股票的數量。相對於目前的25.8元人民幣的股價,該公司在撰寫本文時表現接近公允價值。但請記住,這只是一個近似的估值,就像任何複雜的公式一樣,垃圾進出。
![dcf](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240416/0-78fc674770595815da13dd08cb6a4987-0-dcf3e09cf43f49f39f91123259c6ab65.png/big)
Important Assumptions
重要假設
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
我們要指出的是,貼現現金流的最重要投入是貼現率,當然還有實際的現金流。投資的一部分是自己對公司未來業績的評估,因此請自己嘗試計算並檢查自己的假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮公司未來的資本需求,因此它沒有全面反映公司的潛在表現。鑑於我們將馬應龍製藥集團視爲潛在股東,因此使用股本成本作爲貼現率,而不是構成債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在此計算中,我們使用了7.4%,這是基於0.800的槓桿測試版。Beta是衡量股票與整個市場相比波動性的指標。我們的測試版來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔值,設定在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定的業務的合理範圍。
Moving On:
繼續前進:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group, we've put together three important aspects you should look at:
儘管公司的估值很重要,但它不應該是你在研究公司時唯一考慮的指標。DCF模型不是完美的股票估值工具。最好你運用不同的案例和假設,看看它們將如何影響公司的估值。如果一家公司以不同的速度增長,或者其股本成本或無風險利率急劇變化,則產出可能會大不相同。對於馬應龍藥業集團而言,我們彙總了您應該考慮的三個重要方面:
- Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group .
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!
- 風險:爲此,你應該注意我們在馬應龍製藥集團發現的1個警告信號。
- 其他穩健的業務:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去表現是強大業務的基礎。爲什麼不瀏覽我們具有堅實業務基礎的股票互動清單,看看是否還有其他你可能沒有考慮過的公司!
- 其他環保公司:擔心環境並認爲消費者會越來越多地購買環保產品?瀏覽我們正在考慮更綠色未來的公司的互動名單,發現一些你可能沒有想到的股票!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS。Simply Wall St每天都會更新每隻中國股票的差價合約計算結果,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的內在價值,請在此處搜索。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。