Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Shanghai Cooltech Power Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300153)
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Shanghai Cooltech Power Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300153)
Key Insights
主要見解
- Shanghai Cooltech Power's estimated fair value is CN¥5.51 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Shanghai Cooltech Power's CN¥5.06 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
- The average premium for Shanghai Cooltech Power's competitorsis currently 1,062%
- 科泰電源的預估公允價值爲CN¥5.51,基於二階段股權自由現金流模型。
- 科泰電源的股價CN¥5.06表明其交易價格與公允價值估計相似。
- 科泰電源競爭對手的平均溢價目前爲1,062%。
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Shanghai Cooltech Power Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300153) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
在本文中,我們將利用貼現現金流模型(DCF)來估算科泰電源有限公司(SZSE:300153)的內在價值,通過預期未來現金流和對今天的貼現折現實現。信不信由你,這並不太難,就像你從我們的例子中所看到的那樣!
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
需要記住,估算公司價值有很多方法,而DCF只是其中的一種。如果您想了解更多有關折現現金流的知識,可以詳細閱讀Simply Wall St分析模型的理論基礎。
Is Shanghai Cooltech Power Fairly Valued?
科泰電源是否公平價值?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我們使用的是2階段模型,這意味着公司現金流有兩個不同的增長階段。一般來說,第一階段是高增長,第二階段是低增長。首先,我們必須對未來十年的現金流進行估計。由於沒有自由現金流的分析師估計數據可供我們使用,因此我們必須推斷出公司上一期的自由現金流(FCF)的數據,並假定自由現金流在此期間呈收縮趨勢的公司的收縮速率會降低,自由現金流呈增長趨勢的公司的增長率也會放緩。我們這樣做是爲了反映增長趨勢在早期相較於後期會放緩。
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
普遍認爲今天的一美元比將來的一美元更有價值,因此我們需要貼現這些未來的現金流總和來得出現值估計:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
10年自由現金流 (FCF) 預估值
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥116.0m | CN¥119.6m | CN¥123.2m | CN¥126.9m | CN¥130.6m | CN¥134.5m | CN¥138.5m | CN¥142.6m | CN¥146.8m | CN¥151.1m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 3.08% | Est @ 3.04% | Est @ 3.01% | Est @ 2.99% | Est @ 2.97% | Est @ 2.96% | Est @ 2.96% | Est @ 2.95% | Est @ 2.95% | Est @ 2.95% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.5% | CN¥106 | CN¥99.7 | CN¥93.7 | CN¥88.1 | CN¥82.9 | CN¥77.9 | CN¥73.2 | CN¥68.8 | CN¥64.7 | CN¥60.8 |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
槓桿自由現金流量(人民幣,百萬) | 自由現金流爲CN¥116.0m | 自由現金流爲CN¥119.6m | 自由現金流爲CN¥123.2m | 自由現金流爲CN¥126.9m | 自由現金流爲CN¥130.6m | 自由現金流爲CN¥134.5m | 自由現金流爲CN¥138.5m | 自由現金流爲CN¥142.6m | 自由現金流爲CN¥146.8m | 自由現金流爲CN¥151.1m |
創業板增長率預測來源 | 預計 @ 3.08%。 | Est @ 3.04% | 債券型@ 3.01% | 估計年利率爲2.99% | 估值爲2.97% | 估計爲2.96% | 估計爲2.96% | 預期增長率爲2.95% | 預期增長率爲2.95% | 預期增長率爲2.95% |
現值(單位:百萬元,折現率爲9.5%) | 價格爲CN¥106 | 價格爲CN¥99.7 | 價格爲CN¥93.7 | 價格爲CN¥88.1 | 價格爲CN¥82.9 | 77.9元人民幣 | 73.2元人民幣 | 68.8元人民幣 | 64.7元人民幣 | 60.8元人民幣 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥816m
("Est" = FCF增長率估計由Simply Wall St)
未來10年現金流的現值(PVCF)=816百萬人民幣
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.5%.
現在我們需要計算終端價值,它包括這十年後所有未來現金流。基於許多理由,使用非常保守的增長率,不能超過一個國家的GDP增長率。在此情況下,我們使用10年政府債券型收益率的5年平均值(2.9%)來估計未來的增長。與10年'增長'期一樣,我們使用權益成本率(9.5%)來折現未來的現金流到今天的價值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥151m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (9.5%– 2.9%) = CN¥2.4b
終止價值(TV)= FCF2033× (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = 151百萬人民幣× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (9.5%– 2.9%) = 24億人民幣
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥2.4b÷ ( 1 + 9.5%)10= CN¥949m
終止價值現值(PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= 24億人民幣÷ ( 1 + 9.5%)10= 9.49億人民幣
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥1.8b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥5.1, the company appears about fair value at a 8.2% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
總價值是未來十年現金流和折現終端價值之和,這在本例中爲18億人民幣。 要獲得每股內在價值,我們將其除以總流通股數。 相對於目前股價5.1元人民幣,公司看起來大約公正價值偏低8.2%。請記住,這只是一個近似估值,就像任何複雜的公式一樣——輸入垃圾產生垃圾。
![dcf](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240417/0-e050529ff9fe828dc9b32522f25a79ad-0-2097c343f85945f7154ef27de935ca33.png/big)
Important Assumptions
重要假設
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Shanghai Cooltech Power as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.171. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
上述計算非常依賴兩個假設。第一個是折現率,另一個是現金流。如果您不同意這些結果,請自己嘗試計算並調整假設。折現現金流也沒有考慮行業可能的週期性或公司未來的資本需求,因此它並不能給出公司潛在表現的完整畫面。鑑於我們正在考慮將科泰電源作爲潛在股東,使用的是權益成本率作爲折現率,而不是考慮債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了9.5%,這基於淨負債β的1.171。β是衡量股票波動性的指標,與整個市場相比。我們從全球可比公司的平均β中得到我們的β,在0.8和2.0之間強制實施一個限制,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。
Moving On:
接下來:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Shanghai Cooltech Power, we've put together three further aspects you should assess:
雖然重要,但DCF計算最好不要是您進行公司分析的唯一依據。DCF模型不是投資估值的全部和終極目標。它應該被看作是一種指引,告訴您“這隻股票被低估/高估需要滿足什麼假設條件?”例如,公司權益成本或無風險利率的變化會對估值產生重大影響。對於科泰電源,我們總結了三個需要評估的方面:
- Financial Health: Does 300153 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!
- 財務健康狀況:300153是否有健康的資產負債表?請查看我們的免費資產負債表分析,檢查關鍵因素(如槓桿率和風險)的六個簡單檢查步驟。
- 其他優秀企業:低負債,高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是構建強大企業基礎的基礎。爲什麼不探索我們交互式的股票列表,其中包括具有堅實業務基礎的其他公司?
- 其他環保型公司:擔心環境問題,並認爲消費者將越來越多地購買環保產品?瀏覽我們的交互式公司列表,了解一些您可能沒有想到的股票!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS. Simply Wall St每天都會更新其所覆蓋的每隻中國股票的DCF計算,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的內在價值,只需在此搜索即可。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或電郵 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。