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Why Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane's (SZSE:002523) Shaky Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems

Why Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane's (SZSE:002523) Shaky Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems

爲什麼株洲天橋起重機(深圳證券交易所:002523)的收益不穩定只是問題的開始
Simply Wall St ·  04/20 22:47

Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002523) earnings announcement last week contained some soft numbers, disappointing investors. We did some digging and think there are some comforting factors lying beneath the statutory profit numbers.

株洲天橋起重機有限公司s(SZSE:002523)上週的業績中包含一些疲軟的數字,令投資者失望。我們進行了一些挖掘,認爲法定利潤數字之下有一些令人欣慰的因素。

earnings-and-revenue-history
SZSE:002523 Earnings and Revenue History April 21st 2024
SZSE: 002523 2024 年 4 月 21 日的收益和收入歷史記錄

Examining Cashflow Against Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane's Earnings

根據株洲天橋起重機的收益研究現金流

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

在高級財務中,用於衡量公司將報告的利潤轉換爲自由現金流(FCF)的關鍵比率是應計比率(來自現金流)。爲了獲得應計比率,我們首先從一段時期的利潤中減去FCF,然後將該數字除以該期間的平均運營資產。這個比率告訴我們,一家公司的利潤中有多少沒有自由現金流的支持。

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

因此,負應計比率對公司來說是正數,而正應計比率是負數。這並不意味着我們應該擔心應計比率爲正,但值得注意的是,應計比率相當高的地方。值得注意的是,有一些學術證據表明,總的來說,高應計率對短期利潤來說是個壞兆頭。

Over the twelve months to December 2023, Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane recorded an accrual ratio of -0.14. That indicates that its free cash flow was a fair bit more than its statutory profit. To wit, it produced free cash flow of CN¥309m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of CN¥37.3m. Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.

在截至2023年12月的十二個月中,株洲天橋起重機的應計率爲-0.14。這表明其自由現金流遠超過其法定利潤。換句話說,它在此期間產生的自由現金流爲3.09億元人民幣,與其報告的3730萬元利潤相形見絀。株洲天橋起重機的自由現金流比去年有所改善,總體來說還是不錯的。話雖如此,故事還有更多。我們可以看到,不尋常的項目影響了其法定利潤,從而影響了應計比率。

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane.

注意:我們始終建議投資者檢查資產負債表的實力。點擊此處查看我們對株洲天橋起重機的資產負債表分析。

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

不尋常物品對利潤的影響

Surprisingly, given Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane's accrual ratio implied strong cash conversion, its paper profit was actually boosted by CN¥18m in unusual items. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to December 2023. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.

令人驚訝的是,鑑於株洲天橋起重機的應計比率意味着強勁的現金轉換,其票面利潤實際上是由1800萬元人民幣的不尋常項目提振的。我們不能否認更高的利潤通常會讓我們感到樂觀,但如果利潤是可持續的,我們更願意這樣做。當我們分析全球絕大多數上市公司時,我們發現重大不尋常的事項往往不會重演。這正如你所預料的那樣,因爲這些增強被描述爲 “不尋常”。截至2023年12月,株洲天橋起重機從不尋常的項目中獲得了相當大的利潤。因此,我們可以推測,這些不尋常的物品使其法定利潤明顯高於原來的水平。

Our Take On Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane's Profit Performance

我們對株洲天橋起重機盈利表現的看法

Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane's profits got a boost from unusual items, which indicates they might not be sustained and yet its accrual ratio still indicated solid cash conversion, which is promising. Having considered these factors, we don't think Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane's statutory profits give an overly harsh view of the business. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane (1 is potentially serious) you should be familiar with.

株洲天橋起重機的利潤因不尋常的項目而得到提振,這表明這些利潤可能無法持續下去,但其應計比率仍然顯示出穩健的現金轉換,這令人鼓舞。考慮到這些因素,我們認爲株洲天橋起重機的法定利潤對該業務的看法並不過於嚴厲。有鑑於此,如果你想對公司進行更多分析,了解所涉及的風險至關重要。例如,我們已經確定了你應該熟悉的株洲天橋起重機的兩個警告標誌(其中一個可能很嚴重)。

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, as a guide to a business. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

在這篇文章中,我們研究了許多可能損害利潤數字效用的因素,以此作爲企業的指南。但是,還有很多其他方法可以讓你對公司的看法。有些人認爲高股本回報率是優質業務的好兆頭。雖然可能需要你進行一些研究,但你可能會發現這份免費收集的擁有高股本回報率的公司,或者這份內部人士正在購買的股票清單很有用。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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