Is Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings (SZSE:300999) A Risky Investment?
Is Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings (SZSE:300999) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd (SZSE:300999) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
由伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李露對此毫不掩飾,他說:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。”因此,當你評估公司的風險時,看來聰明的貨幣知道債務(通常涉及破產)是一個非常重要的因素。重要的是,益海嘉裏金龍魚控股有限公司(深圳證券交易所代碼:300999)確實有債務。但是這筆債務是股東關心的問題嗎?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
債務會帶來什麼風險?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
債務可以幫助企業,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是新資本還是自由現金流。在最壞的情況下,如果公司無法向債權人付款,它可能會破產。但是,更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司爲了控制債務,必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東。當然,債務可以成爲企業的重要工具,尤其是資本密集型企業。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,要做的第一件事是同時考慮其現金和債務。
What Is Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings's Debt?
益海嘉裏金龍灣控股的債務是多少?
As you can see below, at the end of December 2023, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings had CN¥115.7b of debt, up from CN¥109.9b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it does have CN¥77.5b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥38.2b.
如下所示,截至2023年12月底,益海嘉裏金龍灣控股的債務爲1157億元人民幣,高於去年同期的1099億元人民幣。點擊圖片查看更多細節。但是,它確實有775億加元的現金抵消了這一點,淨負債約爲382億元人民幣。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240421/0-472a24d4c613a2718e6922f71c54a966-0-5c0af1b9d486501ba950d268a34ba8a7.png/big)
A Look At Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings' Liabilities
看看益海嘉裏阿拉瓦納控股的負債
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings had liabilities of CN¥130.0b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥12.6b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥77.5b and CN¥14.8b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥50.2b.
我們可以從最新的資產負債表中看出,益海嘉裏Arawana Holdings的負債爲130.0億元人民幣,一年後到期的負債爲126億元人民幣。另一方面,它有一年內到期的現金爲775億元人民幣,還有價值148億元人民幣的應收賬款。因此,其負債超過其現金和(短期)應收賬款總額502億元人民幣。
This deficit isn't so bad because Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings is worth a massive CN¥162.2b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
這種赤字還不錯,因爲益海嘉裏Arawana Holdings的市值高達1622億元人民幣,因此如果有需要,可能會籌集足夠的資金來支撐其資產負債表。但是,我們絕對希望留意其債務帶來過大風險的跡象。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
爲了擴大公司相對於收益的負債規模,我們計算其淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),將其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)除以利息支出(利息保障)。這樣,我們既考慮債務的絕對數量,也考慮爲債務支付的利率。
As it happens Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings has a fairly concerning net debt to EBITDA ratio of 7.7 but very strong interest coverage of 1k. So either it has access to very cheap long term debt or that interest expense is going to grow! Importantly, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 66% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
碰巧的是,益海嘉裏阿拉瓦納控股的淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比率相當令人擔憂,爲7.7,但利息覆蓋率非常強勁,爲1k。因此,要麼它有機會獲得非常便宜的長期債務,要麼利息支出將增加!重要的是,益海嘉裏阿拉瓦納控股的息稅前利潤在過去十二個月中下降了驚人的66%。如果這種盈利趨勢繼續下去,那麼償還債務就像放貓坐過山車一樣容易。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是,未來的收益將決定益海嘉裏Arawana Holdings未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果您專注於未來,可以查看這份顯示分析師利潤預測的免費報告。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
最後,公司只能用冷硬現金償還債務,不能用會計利潤償還債務。因此,值得檢查一下息稅前利潤中有多少是由自由現金流支持的。在過去的三年中,益海嘉裏Arawana Holdings的總自由現金流爲負數。儘管這可能是增長支出的結果,但它確實使債務風險大大增加。
Our View
我們的觀點
To be frank both Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. Overall, it seems to us that Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 1 warning sign with Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
坦率地說,益海嘉裏阿拉瓦納控股將息稅前利潤轉換爲自由現金流,以及其(不)增長息稅前利潤的往績都使我們對其債務水平感到相當不舒服。但至少它在用息稅前利潤支付利息支出方面相當不錯;這令人鼓舞。總體而言,在我們看來,益海嘉裏Arawana Holdings的資產負債表確實對業務構成了相當大的風險。出於這個原因,我們對該股非常謹慎,我們認爲股東應密切關注其流動性。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。我們已經向益海嘉裏Arawana Holdings發現了一個警告信號,我們知道它們應該成爲您投資過程的一部分。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
畢竟,如果你對一家資產負債表堅如磐石的快速成長型公司更感興趣,那麼請立即查看我們的淨現金增長股票清單。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。