Is Anhui Gourgen Traffic ConstructionLtd (SHSE:603815) Using Too Much Debt?
Is Anhui Gourgen Traffic ConstructionLtd (SHSE:603815) Using Too Much Debt?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603815) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
傳奇基金經理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾經說過:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。”當我們思考一家公司的風險有多大時,我們總是喜歡考慮其債務的用途,因爲債務過載可能導致破產。我們可以看到,安徽固爾根交通建設有限公司, Ltd.(上海證券交易所代碼:603815)確實在其業務中使用債務。但更重要的問題是:這筆債務會帶來多大的風險?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
債務何時危險?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
債務爲企業提供幫助,直到企業難以用新的資本或自由現金流還清債務。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。但是,更頻繁(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,公司必須以低廉的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東,以支撐其資產負債表。當然,債務的好處是它通常代表廉價資本,尤其是當它用高回報率進行再投資的能力取代了公司的稀釋時。當我們研究債務水平時,我們首先要同時考慮現金和債務水平。
What Is Anhui Gourgen Traffic ConstructionLtd's Debt?
安徽固建交通建設有限公司的債務是多少?
As you can see below, at the end of December 2023, Anhui Gourgen Traffic ConstructionLtd had CN¥1.75b of debt, up from CN¥1.35b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥1.24b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥504.1m.
如下所示,截至2023年12月底,安徽省交通建設有限公司的債務爲17.5億元人民幣,高於去年同期的13.5億元人民幣。點擊圖片查看更多細節。但是,由於其現金儲備爲12.4億元人民幣,其淨負債較少,約爲5.041億元人民幣。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240422/0-33434a17eb7f2b6edadd1fc65ebdacff-0-ce985c3ff3797446d8e0403e9a48f8d9.png/big)
A Look At Anhui Gourgen Traffic ConstructionLtd's Liabilities
看看安徽省高根交通建設有限公司的負債
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Anhui Gourgen Traffic ConstructionLtd had liabilities of CN¥7.44b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥1.01b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.24b and CN¥5.91b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥1.30b.
我們可以從最新的資產負債表中看出,安徽固建交通建設有限公司的負債爲74.4億元人民幣,一年後到期的負債爲101億元人民幣。另一方面,它有一年內到期的現金爲12.4億元人民幣,還有價值59.1億元人民幣的應收賬款。因此,其負債超過其現金和(短期)應收賬款總額13.0億元人民幣。
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Anhui Gourgen Traffic ConstructionLtd has a market capitalization of CN¥4.11b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
儘管這可能看起來很多,但還不錯,因爲安徽固爾根交通建設有限公司的市值爲41.1億元人民幣,因此如果需要,它可能會通過籌集資金來強化資產負債表。但是,仍然值得仔細研究其償還債務的能力。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
我們使用兩個主要比率來告知我們相對於收益的債務水平。第一個是淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),第二個是其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)覆蓋其利息支出(或簡稱利息保障)的多少倍。因此,我們將債務與收益的關係考慮在內,包括和不包括折舊和攤銷費用。
Anhui Gourgen Traffic ConstructionLtd has net debt of just 1.3 times EBITDA, indicating that it is certainly not a reckless borrower. And this view is supported by the solid interest coverage, with EBIT coming in at 8.4 times the interest expense over the last year. Also good is that Anhui Gourgen Traffic ConstructionLtd grew its EBIT at 18% over the last year, further increasing its ability to manage debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Anhui Gourgen Traffic ConstructionLtd's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
安徽固爾根交通建設有限公司的淨負債僅爲息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的1.3倍,這表明它肯定不是一個魯莽的借款人。這一觀點得到了穩健的利息覆蓋範圍的支持,息稅前利潤是去年利息支出的8.4倍。同樣不錯的是,安徽固建交通建設有限公司的息稅前利潤比去年增長了18%,進一步提高了其債務管理能力。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,影響未來資產負債表狀況的是安徽國建交通建設有限公司的收益。因此,在考慮債務時,絕對值得一看收益趨勢。單擊此處查看交互式快照。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Anhui Gourgen Traffic ConstructionLtd burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
最後,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤根本無法減少債務。因此,合乎邏輯的步驟是研究息稅前利潤與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。在過去的三年中,安徽固爾根交通建設有限公司燒掉了大量現金。儘管投資者無疑預計這種情況將在適當的時候逆轉,但這顯然意味着其使用債務的風險更大。
Our View
我們的觀點
Anhui Gourgen Traffic ConstructionLtd's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered cast it in a significantly better light. In particular, its EBIT growth rate was re-invigorating. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Anhui Gourgen Traffic ConstructionLtd is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Anhui Gourgen Traffic ConstructionLtd is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
儘管我們考慮的其他因素明顯好於此分析,但安徽固爾根交通建設有限公司將息稅前利潤轉換爲自由現金流的做法確實是負面的。特別是,其息稅前利潤增長率重獲活力。從上面提到的所有角度來看,在我們看來,由於負債累累,安徽省交通建設有限公司確實是一項風險較大的投資。這不一定是一件壞事,因爲槓桿可以提高股本回報率,但這是需要注意的事情。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但歸根結底,每家公司都可以控制資產負債表之外存在的風險。請注意,安徽固建交通建設有限公司在我們的投資分析中顯示了1個警告標誌,你應該知道...
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
畢竟,如果你對一家資產負債表堅如磐石的快速成長型公司更感興趣,那麼請立即查看我們的淨現金增長股票清單。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。