FriendLtd's (SHSE:605050) Profits May Not Reveal Underlying Issues
FriendLtd's (SHSE:605050) Profits May Not Reveal Underlying Issues
The recent earnings posted by Friend Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:605050) were solid, but the stock didn't move as much as we expected. We think this is due to investors looking beyond the statutory profits and being concerned with what they see.
Friend Co. 最近公佈的業績, Ltd.(上海證券交易所股票代碼:605050)表現穩定,但該股的波動幅度沒有我們預期的那麼大。我們認爲這是由於投資者將目光投向了法定利潤之外並關注他們所看到的情況。
![earnings-and-revenue-history](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240425/0-ba1a959c64c89af9310826e349551a66-0-716d6166a627ac82e0a509dbfc1a1140.png/big)
Examining Cashflow Against FriendLtd's Earnings
根據FriendLtd的收益檢查現金流
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
許多投資者還沒有聽說過現金流的應計比率,但它實際上是衡量公司在給定時期內自由現金流(FCF)在多大程度上支持利潤的有用指標。簡而言之,該比率從淨利潤中減去FCF,然後將該數字除以該時期公司的平均運營資產。你可以將現金流的應計比率視爲 “非FCF利潤率”。
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
因此,負應計比率對公司來說是正數,而正應計比率是負數。雖然正應計比率表明非現金利潤達到一定水平不是問題,但高應計比率可以說是一件壞事,因爲它表明紙面利潤與現金流不匹配。引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年發表的一篇論文,“應計額較高的公司將來的利潤往往會降低”。
FriendLtd has an accrual ratio of 0.39 for the year to December 2023. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥830m despite its profit of CN¥417.3m, mentioned above. We also note that FriendLtd's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of CN¥830m.
截至2023年12月的一年中,FriendLtd的應計比率爲0.39。從統計學上講,這對未來的收益來說確實是負面的。事實上,在此期間,該公司沒有產生任何自由現金流。在過去的十二個月裏,它實際上有 負面的 自由現金流,儘管利潤爲4.173億元人民幣,但流出量仍爲8.3億元人民幣,如上所述。我們還注意到,去年 FriendLtd 的自由現金流實際上也是負的,因此我們可以理解股東是否被其8.3億元人民幣的流出所困擾。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
這可能會讓你想知道分析師對未來盈利能力的預測。幸運的是,您可以單擊此處查看根據他們的估計描繪未來盈利能力的交互式圖表。
Our Take On FriendLtd's Profit Performance
我們對FriendLtd的利潤表現的看法
As we discussed above, we think FriendLtd's earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. For this reason, we think that FriendLtd's statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. But at least holders can take some solace from the 21% EPS growth in the last year. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. For example, FriendLtd has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.
正如我們上面討論的那樣,我們認爲FriendLtd的收益沒有得到自由現金流的支持,這可能會讓一些投資者感到擔憂。出於這個原因,我們認爲FriendLtd的法定利潤可能不利於其潛在盈利能力,並可能給投資者留下過於積極的公司印象。但是,至少持有人可以從去年21%的每股收益增長中得到一些安慰。歸根結底,如果你想正確地了解公司,必須考慮的不僅僅是上述因素。請記住,在分析股票時,值得注意所涉及的風險。例如,FriendLtd 有 2 個警告標誌(以及 1 個有點不愉快),我們認爲你應該知道。
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of FriendLtd's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
這份報告只研究了揭示FriendLTD利潤性質的單一因素。但是,還有很多其他方法可以讓你對公司的看法。例如,許多人認爲高股本回報率是有利的商業經濟的標誌,而另一些人則喜歡 “關注資金”,尋找內部人士正在買入的股票。雖然可能需要你進行一些研究,但你可能會發現這份免費收集的擁有高股本回報率的公司,或者這份內部人士正在購買的股票清單很有用。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。