The GHT Co.,Ltd (SZSE:300711) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 85%. The annual gain comes to 115% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.
Following the firm bounce in price, GHTLtd may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 12.6x, since almost half of all companies in the Communications industry in China have P/S ratios under 4x and even P/S lower than 2x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.
How GHTLtd Has Been Performing
GHTLtd has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue at a solid pace. It might be that many expect the respectable revenue performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on GHTLtd's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, GHTLtd would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 18% last year. Pleasingly, revenue has also lifted 46% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.
Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 45% shows it's noticeably less attractive.
In light of this, it's alarming that GHTLtd's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.
The Bottom Line On GHTLtd's P/S
Shares in GHTLtd have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.
Our examination of GHTLtd revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't detracting from the P/S as much as we though, given they look worse than current industry expectations. When we see slower than industry revenue growth but an elevated P/S, there's considerable risk of the share price declining, sending the P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
You always need to take note of risks, for example - GHTLtd has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on GHTLtd, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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