Is Ternium (NYSE:TX) A Risky Investment?
Is Ternium (NYSE:TX) A Risky Investment?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
大衛·伊本說得好,他說:“波動性不是我們關心的風險。我們關心的是避免資本的永久損失。”因此,很明顯,當你考慮任何給定股票的風險時,你需要考慮債務,因爲過多的債務會使公司陷入困境。我們可以看到,Ternium S.A.(紐約證券交易所代碼:TX)確實在其業務中使用了債務。但是,股東是否應該擔心其債務的使用?
When Is Debt A Problem?
債務何時會成爲問題?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
債務可以幫助企業,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是新資本還是自由現金流。最終,如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東們可能會一無所獲。但是,更常見(但仍然令人痛苦)的情況是,它必須以低廉的價格籌集新的股本,從而永久稀釋股東。當然,許多公司使用債務爲增長提供資金,而不會產生任何負面影響。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,要做的第一件事是同時考慮其現金和債務。
How Much Debt Does Ternium Carry?
Ternium 揹負了多少債務?
As you can see below, at the end of March 2024, Ternium had US$2.10b of debt, up from US$880.3m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. But it also has US$4.06b in cash to offset that, meaning it has US$1.97b net cash.
如下所示,截至2024年3月底,Ternium的債務爲21.0億美元,高於去年同期的8.803億美元。點擊圖片查看更多細節。但它也有40.6億美元的現金可以抵消這一點,這意味着它的淨現金爲19.7億美元。
How Healthy Is Ternium's Balance Sheet?
Ternium 的資產負債表有多健康?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Ternium had liabilities of US$3.78b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$3.34b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$4.06b as well as receivables valued at US$3.40b due within 12 months. So it actually has US$352.0m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
我們可以從最新的資產負債表中看出,Ternium的負債爲37.8億美元,一年後到期的負債爲33.4億美元。除這些債務外,它有40.6億美元的現金以及價值34.0億美元的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。所以它實際上有3.52億美元 更多 流動資產超過總負債。
This surplus suggests that Ternium has a conservative balance sheet, and could probably eliminate its debt without much difficulty. Succinctly put, Ternium boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
這種盈餘表明Ternium的資產負債表比較保守,可以毫不費力地消除債務。簡而言之,Ternium擁有淨現金,因此可以公平地說,它沒有沉重的債務負擔!
Better yet, Ternium grew its EBIT by 101% last year, which is an impressive improvement. If maintained that growth will make the debt even more manageable in the years ahead. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Ternium's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
更好的是,Ternium去年的息稅前利潤增長了101%,這是一個令人印象深刻的改善。如果這種增長得以維持,將使未來幾年的債務更加易於管理。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,未來的收益比什麼都重要,將決定Ternium未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. Ternium may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Looking at the most recent three years, Ternium recorded free cash flow of 44% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
最後,儘管稅務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冷硬現金。Ternium的資產負債表上可能有淨現金,但研究該企業如何將其利息稅前收益(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流仍然很有趣,因爲這將影響其對債務的需求和管理能力。縱觀最近三年,Ternium的自由現金流佔其息稅前利潤的44%,低於我們的預期。在償還債務方面,這並不好。
Summing Up
總結
While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Ternium has US$1.97b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. And it impressed us with its EBIT growth of 101% over the last year. So we don't think Ternium's use of debt is risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Ternium is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those can't be ignored...
儘管調查公司的債務總是明智的,但在這種情況下,Ternium的淨現金爲19.7億美元,資產負債表看起來不錯。它的息稅前利潤比去年增長了101%,給我們留下了深刻的印象。因此,我們認爲Ternium使用債務沒有風險。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。請注意,Ternium在我們的投資分析中顯示了3個警告信號,其中一個不容忽視...
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
畢竟,如果你對一家資產負債表堅如磐石的快速成長型公司更感興趣,那麼請立即查看我們的淨現金增長股票清單。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。