One thing we could say about the analysts on Changzhou Almaden Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002623) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as the analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.

After the downgrade, the three analysts covering Changzhou Almaden are now predicting revenues of CN¥4.0b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a notable 8.7% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 55% to CN¥0.64. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥4.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.99 in 2024. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Changzhou Almaden's prospects, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

The consensus price target fell 20% to CN¥24.52, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading analyst valuation estimates.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Changzhou Almaden's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Changzhou Almaden's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 8.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 25% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 23% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Changzhou Almaden.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Changzhou Almaden's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Changzhou Almaden going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.