Shaky Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For UE Furniture (SHSE:603600)
Shaky Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For UE Furniture (SHSE:603600)
UE Furniture Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603600) lackluster earnings announcement last week disappointed investors. We looked deeper and believe that there is even more to be worried about, beyond the soft profit numbers.
UE 傢俱有限公司's(上海證券交易所股票代碼:603600)上週公佈的乏善可陳的業績令投資者失望。我們進行了更深入的研究,並認爲除了疲軟的利潤數字外,還有更多需要擔心的地方。
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A Closer Look At UE Furniture's Earnings
仔細研究UE Furniture的收益
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
用於衡量公司將其利潤轉化爲自由現金流(FCF)的效果的一個關鍵財務比率是應計比率。爲了獲得應計比率,我們首先從一段時間內的利潤中減去FCF,然後將該數字除以該期間的平均運營資產。該比率向我們顯示了公司的利潤超過其FCF的程度。
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
因此,負應計比率對公司來說是正數,正應計比率是負數。這並不意味着我們應該擔心應計比率爲正,但值得注意的是,應計比率相當高的地方。引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年發表的一篇論文,“應計額較高的公司未來的利潤往往較低”。
Over the twelve months to March 2024, UE Furniture recorded an accrual ratio of 0.22. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow fell significantly short of its reported profits. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥288.8m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥77m in the last year. It's worth noting that UE Furniture generated positive FCF of CN¥499m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. Having said that, there is more to consider. We must also consider the impact of unusual items on statutory profit (and thus the accrual ratio), as well as note the ramifications of the company issuing new shares. One positive for UE Furniture shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
在截至2024年3月的十二個月中,UE Furniture的應計比率爲0.22。不幸的是,這意味着其自由現金流遠低於其報告的利潤。儘管該公司報告的利潤爲2.888億元人民幣,但從自由現金流來看,它實際上在去年消耗了7700萬元人民幣。值得注意的是,UE Furniture一年前創造了4.99億元人民幣的正FCF,因此至少他們過去曾這樣做過。話雖如此,還有更多需要考慮的地方。我們還必須考慮不尋常項目對法定利潤(以及應計比率)的影響,並注意公司發行新股的後果。對UE Furniture股東來說,一個積極因素是,去年的應計比率明顯改善,這使人們有理由相信其未來可能會恢復更強勁的現金轉換。如果確實如此,股東應尋求在本年度的現金流相對於利潤的改善。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
這可能會讓你想知道分析師對未來盈利能力的預測。幸運的是,您可以單擊此處查看根據他們的估計描繪未來盈利能力的交互式圖表。
To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. UE Furniture expanded the number of shares on issue by 11% over the last year. Therefore, each share now receives a smaller portion of profit. Per share metrics like EPS help us understand how much actual shareholders are benefitting from the company's profits, while the net income level gives us a better view of the company's absolute size. You can see a chart of UE Furniture's EPS by clicking here.
要了解公司收益增長的價值,必須考慮削弱股東的利益。與去年相比,UE Furniture的已發行股票數量增加了11%。因此,每股現在獲得的利潤比例較小。每股收益等每股指標可以幫助我們了解實際股東從公司的利潤中受益的程度,而淨收入水平則使我們能夠更好地了解公司的絕對規模。您可以點擊此處查看UE Furniture的每股收益圖表。
A Look At The Impact Of UE Furniture's Dilution On Its Earnings Per Share (EPS)
看看UE Furniture的稀釋對其每股收益(EPS)的影響
UE Furniture has improved its profit over the last three years, with an annualized gain of 12% in that time. Net profit actually dropped by 15% in the last year. Unfortunately for shareholders, though, the earnings per share result was even worse, declining 19%. Therefore, the dilution is having a noteworthy influence on shareholder returns.
在過去三年中,UE Furniture的利潤有所提高,同期年化增長了12%。去年的淨利潤實際上下降了15%。但不幸的是,對於股東來說, 每股收益 結果甚至更糟,下降了19%。因此,稀釋對股東回報產生了顯著影響。
In the long term, if UE Furniture's earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.
從長遠來看,如果UE Furniture的收益 每股 可以上漲,那麼股價也應該上漲。但是,如果其利潤增加而每股收益保持不變(甚至下降),那麼股東可能看不到太多好處。出於這個原因,你可以說從長遠來看,每股收益比淨收入更重要,前提是目標是評估公司的股價是否可能上漲。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
不尋常的物品如何影響利潤?
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that UE Furniture's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥112m in the last twelve months. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. We can see that UE Furniture's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to March 2024. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.
考慮到應計比率,在過去十二個月中,價值1.12億元人民幣的不尋常物品提振了UE Furniture的利潤也就不足爲奇了。雖然我們希望看到利潤增加,但當不尋常的物品做出重大貢獻時,我們往往會更加謹慎一些。當我們分析全球絕大多數上市公司時,我們發現重大不尋常的事項往往不會重演。而且,畢竟,這正是會計術語的含義。我們可以看到,相對於截至2024年3月的一年中,UE Furniture的不尋常產品與其利潤相比相當可觀。在其他條件相同的情況下,這可能會使法定利潤成爲衡量潛在盈利能力的不良指導。
Our Take On UE Furniture's Profit Performance
我們對UE傢俱利潤表現的看法
In conclusion, UE Furniture's weak accrual ratio suggested its statutory earnings have been inflated by the unusual items. Meanwhile, the new shares issued mean that shareholders now own less of the company, unless they tipped in more cash themselves. On reflection, the above-mentioned factors give us the strong impression that UE Furniture'sunderlying earnings power is not as good as it might seem, based on the statutory profit numbers. If you'd like to know more about UE Furniture as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. For example, we've found that UE Furniture has 3 warning signs (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.
總之,UE Furniture的低應計比率表明,這些不尋常的項目誇大了其法定收益。同時,發行的新股意味着股東現在擁有的公司股份有所減少,除非他們自己投入更多現金。經過反思,上述因素給我們留下了強烈的印象,即根據法定利潤數字,UE Furniture的潛在盈利能力並不像看起來那樣好。如果您想進一步了解UE Furniture作爲一家企業,請務必了解其面臨的任何風險。例如,我們發現 UE Furniture 有 3 個警告標誌(1 個有點不愉快!)在進行進一步分析之前,這值得你注意。
Our examination of UE Furniture has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
我們對UE Furniture的審查側重於某些可能使其收益看起來好於實際的因素。而且,在此基礎上,我們有些懷疑。但是,還有很多其他方法可以讓你對公司的看法。例如,許多人認爲高股本回報率是有利的商業經濟的標誌,而另一些人則喜歡 “關注資金”,尋找內部人士正在買入的股票。因此,你可能希望看到這份免費收藏的擁有高股本回報率的公司,或者這份內部人士正在購買的股票清單。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。