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Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic's (SZSE:300553) Profits May Be Overstating Its True Earnings Potential

Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic's (SZSE:300553) Profits May Be Overstating Its True Earnings Potential

杭州極智機電(深圳證券交易所代碼:300553)的利潤可能誇大了其真正的盈利潛力
Simply Wall St ·  05/03 18:11

Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300553) posted some decent earnings, but shareholders didn't react strongly. Our analysis has found some concerning factors which weaken the profit's foundation.

杭州集智機電有限公司(深交所股票代碼:300553)公佈了一些不錯的收益,但股東們的反應並不強烈。我們的分析發現了一些削弱利潤基礎的相關因素。

earnings-and-revenue-history
SZSE:300553 Earnings and Revenue History May 3rd 2024
SZSE: 300553 收益和收入歷史記錄 2024 年 5 月 3 日

Examining Cashflow Against Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic's Earnings

根據杭州極智機電的收益研究現金流

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

用於衡量公司將其利潤轉換爲自由現金流(FCF)的情況的一個關鍵財務比率是應計比率。應計比率從給定時期的利潤中減去FCF,然後將結果除以該時間內公司的平均運營資產。這個比率告訴我們,一家公司的利潤中有多少沒有自由現金流的支持。

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

這意味着負的應計比率是一件好事,因爲它表明該公司帶來的自由現金流比其利潤所暗示的要多。儘管應計比率爲正並不成問題,表示非現金利潤達到一定水平,但高應計比率可以說是一件壞事,因爲它表明票面利潤與現金流不匹配。引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年發表的一篇論文,“應計收入較高的公司將來的利潤往往會降低”。

For the year to March 2024, Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic had an accrual ratio of 0.22. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥118m despite its profit of CN¥26.2m, mentioned above. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥118m, this year, indicates high risk. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

在截至2024年3月的一年中,杭州集智機電的應計比率爲0.22。因此,我們可以推斷出其自由現金流遠不足以支付其法定利潤。在過去的十二個月裏,它實際上有 負面的 自由現金流,儘管利潤爲2620萬元人民幣,但流出量仍爲1.18億元人民幣,如上所述。在去年自由現金流爲負的背景下,我們想象一些股東可能會懷疑其今年1.18億元人民幣的現金消耗是否表明存在高風險。話雖如此,故事還有更多。應計比率至少部分反映了不尋常項目對法定利潤的影響。

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic.

注意:我們始終建議投資者檢查資產負債表的實力。點擊此處查看我們對杭州集智機電的資產負債表分析。

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

不尋常物品對利潤的影響

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥15m in the last twelve months. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to March 2024. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

考慮到應計比率,在過去十二個月中,價值1500萬元人民幣的不尋常物品提振了杭州極智機電的利潤也就不足爲奇了。雖然獲得更高的利潤總是件好事,但來自不尋常物品的巨額捐款有時會抑制我們的熱情。當我們分析全球絕大多數上市公司時,我們發現重大不尋常的事項往往不會重演。這正如你所預料的那樣,因爲這些增強被描述爲 “不尋常”。截至2024年3月,杭州極智機電從不尋常的項目中獲得了相當大的利潤。在其他條件相同的情況下,這可能會使法定利潤成爲衡量潛在盈利能力的不良指導。

Our Take On Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic's Profit Performance

我們對杭州集智機電盈利表現的看法

Summing up, Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. Considering all this we'd argue Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic you should be aware of.

總而言之,杭州極智機電從不尋常的項目中獲得了不錯的利潤提振,但其紙面利潤無法與自由現金流相提並論。考慮到所有這些,我們認爲杭州極智機電的利潤可能給人一種對其可持續盈利水平的過於慷慨的印象。考慮到這一點,除非我們對風險有透徹的了解,否則我們不會考慮投資股票。一個很好的例子:我們已經發現了兩個你應該注意的杭州集智機電的警告信號。

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

在本文中,我們研究了許多可能削弱利潤數字效用的因素,我們對此持謹慎態度。但是,還有很多其他方法可以告知你對公司的看法。有些人認爲高股本回報率是高質量業務的好兆頭。儘管可能需要代表你進行一些研究,但你可能會發現這份免費收集的擁有高股本回報率的公司,或者這份內部人士正在購買的股票清單很有用。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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