Anhui Gujing Distillery's (SZSE:000596) Promising Earnings May Rest On Soft Foundations
Anhui Gujing Distillery's (SZSE:000596) Promising Earnings May Rest On Soft Foundations
Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000596) just reported some strong earnings, and the market reacted accordingly with a healthy uplift in the share price. We did some analysis and think that investors are missing some details hidden beneath the profit numbers.
安徽古井酒廠股份有限公司(SZSE: 000596)剛剛公佈了一些強勁的收益,市場做出了相應的反應,股價出現了健康的上漲。我們做了一些分析,認爲投資者遺漏了一些隱藏在利潤數字之下的細節。
![earnings-and-revenue-history](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240505/0-ce679e01e8ee03150bfbd9d53ec0ea5e-0-d41912bce4c06fbf06e4134980ef1b48.png/big)
A Closer Look At Anhui Gujing Distillery's Earnings
仔細看看安徽古井酒廠的收益
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
許多投資者尚未聽說過現金流的應計比率,但它實際上是衡量公司在給定時期內自由現金流(FCF)在多大程度上支持利潤的有用指標。爲了獲得應計比率,我們首先從一段時期的利潤中減去FCF,然後將該數字除以該期間的平均運營資產。你可以將現金流的應計比率視爲 “非FCF利潤率”。
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
因此,當公司的應計比率爲負時,這實際上被認爲是一件好事,但是如果應計比率爲正,則被認爲是一件壞事。儘管應計比率爲正(表明非現金利潤達到一定水平)不是問題,但高應計比率可以說是一件壞事,因爲它表明紙質利潤與現金流不匹配。那是因爲一些學術研究表明,高應計比率往往會導致利潤下降或利潤增長放緩。
Anhui Gujing Distillery has an accrual ratio of 0.73 for the year to March 2024. That means it didn't generate anywhere near enough free cash flow to match its profit. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. In fact, it had free cash flow of CN¥1.3b in the last year, which was a lot less than its statutory profit of CN¥5.09b. Anhui Gujing Distillery's free cash flow actually declined over the last year, but it may bounce back next year, since free cash flow is often more volatile than accounting profits.
截至2024年3月的一年中,安徽古井酒廠的應計比率爲0.73。這意味着它產生的自由現金流不足以與其利潤相提並論。從統計學上講,這對未來的收益來說確實是負面的。實際上,它去年的自由現金流爲13億元人民幣,遠低於其50.9億元人民幣的法定利潤。去年,安徽古井酒廠的自由現金流實際上有所下降,但明年可能會反彈,因爲自由現金流通常比會計利潤更具波動性。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
這可能會讓你想知道分析師對未來盈利能力的預測。幸運的是,您可以單擊此處查看根據他們的估計描繪未來盈利能力的交互式圖表。
Our Take On Anhui Gujing Distillery's Profit Performance
我們對安徽古井酒廠利潤表現的看法
As we have made quite clear, we're a bit worried that Anhui Gujing Distillery didn't back up the last year's profit with free cashflow. As a result, we think it may well be the case that Anhui Gujing Distillery's underlying earnings power is lower than its statutory profit. But the good news is that its EPS growth over the last three years has been very impressive. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. If you'd like to know more about Anhui Gujing Distillery as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. For example, we've found that Anhui Gujing Distillery has 2 warning signs (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.
正如我們已經明確指出的那樣,我們有點擔心安徽古井酒廠沒有用自由現金流來支持去年的利潤。因此,我們認爲安徽古井酒廠的潛在盈利能力很可能低於其法定利潤。但好消息是,其在過去三年中的每股收益增長非常令人印象深刻。歸根結底,如果你想正確地了解公司,必須考慮的不僅僅是上述因素。如果您想進一步了解安徽古井酒廠的業務,請務必了解其面臨的任何風險。例如,我們發現安徽古井酒廠有 2 個警告標誌(1 個不容忽視!)在進行進一步分析之前,這值得你注意。
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Anhui Gujing Distillery's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
本報告僅研究了揭示安徽古井酒廠利潤性質的單一因素。但是,還有很多其他方法可以讓你對公司的看法。有些人認爲高股本回報率是優質業務的好兆頭。因此,你可能希望看到這份免費收藏的擁有高股本回報率的公司,或者這份內部人士正在購買的股票清單。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。