share_log

Jinjian Cereals IndustryLtd's (SHSE:600127) Solid Earnings May Rest On Weak Foundations

Jinjian Cereals IndustryLtd's (SHSE:600127) Solid Earnings May Rest On Weak Foundations

金健穀物工業有限公司(上海證券交易所代碼:600127)的穩健收益可能建立在薄弱的基礎上
Simply Wall St ·  05/06 18:50

The recent earnings posted by Jinjian Cereals Industry Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600127) were solid, but the stock didn't move as much as we expected. We think this is due to investors looking beyond the statutory profits and being concerned with what they see.

金健米業(SHSE:600127)最近發佈的收益表現穩健,但是股票的移動程度並不如我們所預期的那樣。我們認爲這是由於投資者看到了更多超過法定利潤的內容並對此感到擔憂。

earnings-and-revenue-history
SHSE:600127 Earnings and Revenue History May 6th 2024
SHSE:600127的收益和營收歷史(2024年5月6日)

A Closer Look At Jinjian Cereals IndustryLtd's Earnings

對金健米業(SHSE:600127)收益的更深入解析

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

衡量公司將其利潤轉化爲自由現金流(FCF)的一項關鍵財務比率是應計比率。簡單地說,這個比率將FCF從淨利潤中減去,然後除以該公司在該期間的平均運營資產。您可以將從現金流中得出的應計比率視爲“非FCF利潤比率”。

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

因此,當一家公司的應計比率爲負時,實際上被認爲是一件好事,但如果應計比率爲正,則是一件壞事。這並不意味着我們應該擔心應計比率爲正,但值得注意的是,應計比率相當高時會導致獲利或獲利增長較低。

Jinjian Cereals IndustryLtd has an accrual ratio of -0.12 for the year to March 2024. That implies it has good cash conversion, and implies that its free cash flow solidly exceeded its profit last year. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of CN¥187m, well over the CN¥20.7m it reported in profit. Jinjian Cereals IndustryLtd shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

金健米業(SHSE:600127)在2024年3月的一年中的應計比率爲-0.12。這意味着它具有良好的現金轉換能力,並暗示其自由現金流去年明顯超過其利潤。事實上,在過去的十二個月中,它報告了1.87億元人民幣的自由現金流,遠遠超過了2070萬元人民幣的利潤。金健米業的股東們無疑對過去十二個月的自由現金流的改善感到滿意。話雖如此,這個應計比率反映了非常規項目對法定利潤的影響,至少部分反映了這一點。

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Jinjian Cereals IndustryLtd.

注意:我們始終建議投資者檢查資產負債表的強度。單擊此處以進行金健米業的資產負債表分析。

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

除了稀釋之外,還應該注意的是,萬集科技在過去12個月中因不尋常項目獲得了價值人民幣3.5萬元的利潤。雖然我們希望看到利潤增加,但當這些不尋常項目對利潤做出重大貢獻時,我們會更加謹慎。我們對全球大部分上市公司的數據進行了分析,發現不尋常項目往往是一次性的。這正如我們所期望的那樣,因爲這些提升被描述爲"不尋常"。相對於其利潤而言,萬集科技在2021年12月前的不尋常項目貢獻大。因此,我們可以推斷出,這些不尋常項目正在使其財務利潤顯著增強。

Surprisingly, given Jinjian Cereals IndustryLtd's accrual ratio implied strong cash conversion, its paper profit was actually boosted by CN¥13m in unusual items. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Jinjian Cereals IndustryLtd had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to March 2024. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

令人驚訝的是,鑑於金健米業(SHSE: 600127)的應計比率暗示着強勁的現金轉換,其紙面利潤實際上是由非常規項目提升了1300萬元人民幣。雖然我們喜歡看到利潤增加,但當非常規項目對利潤造成重大貢獻時,我們往往會更加謹慎。當我們分析全球絕大多數上市公司時,發現重大的非常規項目通常不會重複出現。畢竟這正是會計術語所暗示的。與2024年3月的利潤相比,金健米業的非常規項目貢獻相當大。其他條件相等的情況下,這可能會導致法定利潤成爲了基礎盈利能力的糟糕指南。

Our Take On Jinjian Cereals IndustryLtd's Profit Performance

我們對金健米業(SHSE:600127)的盈利表現的看法

Jinjian Cereals IndustryLtd's profits got a boost from unusual items, which indicates they might not be sustained and yet its accrual ratio still indicated solid cash conversion, which is promising. Having considered these factors, we don't think Jinjian Cereals IndustryLtd's statutory profits give an overly harsh view of the business. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Jinjian Cereals IndustryLtd you should be mindful of and 1 of these bad boys is a bit unpleasant.

金健米業(SHSE: 600127)的利潤得到了非常規項目的提升,這表明它們可能無法持續,但其應計比率仍然表明了強勁的現金轉換,這是有希望的。在考慮了這些因素之後,我們認爲金健米業(SHSE: 600127)的法定利潤並沒有過多地影響業務。請記住,在分析股票時,值得注意的是所涉及的風險。例如,我們已發現金健米業(SHSE:600127)的2個警告信號,您需要注意其中1個不良因素。

Our examination of Jinjian Cereals IndustryLtd has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

我們對金健米業(SHSE:600127)的研究側重於某些因素,這些因素可以使其收益看起來比實際情況更好。但是如果您能夠專注於細節,總有更多的發現。例如,許多人認爲高股本回報率是良好的商業經濟指標,而另一些人則喜歡“跟隨資金”,尋找內部人士正在購買的股票。因此,您可能希望查看此免費擁有高股本回報率的公司系列或此股票內部人士正在購買的列表。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
    搶先評論