These 4 Measures Indicate That Keppel (SGX:BN4) Is Using Debt Extensively
These 4 Measures Indicate That Keppel (SGX:BN4) Is Using Debt Extensively
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Keppel Ltd. (SGX:BN4) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
傳奇基金經理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾經說過:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。”因此,很明顯,當你考慮任何給定股票的風險時,你需要考慮債務,因爲過多的債務會使公司陷入困境。與許多其他公司一樣,吉寶有限公司(新加坡證券交易所股票代碼:BN4)也使用債務。但真正的問題是這筆債務是否使公司面臨風險。
When Is Debt Dangerous?
債務何時危險?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
當企業無法通過自由現金流或以誘人的價格籌集資金來輕鬆履行這些義務時,債務和其他負債就會成爲風險。在最壞的情況下,如果公司無法向債權人付款,它可能會破產。但是,更常見(但仍然令人痛苦)的情況是,它必須以低廉的價格籌集新的股本,從而永久稀釋股東。當然,債務的好處在於它通常代表廉價資本,尤其是當它以高回報率進行再投資的能力取代公司的稀釋時。考慮公司的債務水平的第一步是同時考慮其現金和債務。
How Much Debt Does Keppel Carry?
吉寶揹負了多少債務?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2023 Keppel had S$11.3b of debt, an increase on S$10.5b, over one year. However, it does have S$1.50b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about S$9.81b.
你可以點擊下圖查看歷史數字,但它顯示,截至2023年12月,吉寶在一年內有113億新元的債務,比105億新元有所增加。但是,它確實有15.0億新元的現金抵消了這一點,淨負債約爲98.1億新元。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240522/0-2b84a6d03884848172c7a3a883f02109-0-8af448617bb689a73078c413deceba15.png/big)
How Strong Is Keppel's Balance Sheet?
吉寶的資產負債表有多強?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Keppel had liabilities of S$6.14b due within a year, and liabilities of S$9.68b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of S$1.50b as well as receivables valued at S$2.09b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total S$12.2b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
最新的資產負債表數據顯示,吉寶的負債爲61.4億新元,之後到期的負債爲96.8億新元。除了這些債務外,它還有價值15.0億新元的現金和價值20.9億新元的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的總額高出122億新元。
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of S$12.1b, we think shareholders really should watch Keppel's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
鑑於這一赤字實際上高於公司121億新元的市值,我們認爲股東確實應該關注吉寶的債務水平,就像父母第一次看着孩子騎自行車一樣。在公司必須迅速清理資產負債表的情況下,股東似乎可能會遭受大規模稀釋。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
爲了擴大公司相對於收益的負債規模,我們計算其淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),將其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)除以利息支出(利息保障)。這種方法的優勢在於,我們既考慮了債務的絕對數量(包括淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤),也考慮了與該債務相關的實際利息支出(及其利息覆蓋率)。
Keppel has a rather high debt to EBITDA ratio of 9.6 which suggests a meaningful debt load. However, its interest coverage of 4.6 is reasonably strong, which is a good sign. Pleasingly, Keppel is growing its EBIT faster than former Australian PM Bob Hawke downs a yard glass, boasting a 123% gain in the last twelve months. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Keppel's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
吉寶的債務與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比率相當高,爲9.6,這表明債務負擔相當可觀。但是,其4.6的利息覆蓋率相當強,這是一個好兆頭。令人高興的是,吉寶的息稅前利潤增長速度比澳大利亞前總理鮑勃·霍克低一碼還要快,在過去十二個月中增長了123%。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,未來的收益將決定吉寶未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Keppel burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
最後,公司只能用冷硬現金償還債務,不能用會計利潤償還債務。因此,值得檢查一下息稅前利潤中有多少是由自由現金流支持的。在過去的三年中,吉寶燒掉了大量現金。儘管這可能是增長支出的結果,但它確實使債務風險大大增加。
Our View
我們的觀點
On the face of it, Keppel's net debt to EBITDA left us tentative about the stock, and its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that's encouraging. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that Keppel's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Keppel you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.
從表面上看,吉寶的淨負債佔息稅折舊攤銷前利潤讓我們對該股持初步看法,其將息稅前利潤轉換爲自由現金流並不比一年中最繁忙的夜晚那家空蕩蕩的餐廳更具吸引力。但至少它在增長息稅前利潤方面相當不錯;這令人鼓舞。從大局來看,我們似乎很清楚吉寶使用債務給公司帶來了風險。如果一切順利,這應該會提高回報,但另一方面,債務會增加永久資本損失的風險。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。一個很好的例子:我們已經發現了你應該注意的吉寶的4個警告信號,其中一個不容忽視。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
歸根結底,通常最好將注意力集中在沒有淨負債的公司身上。您可以訪問我們的此類公司的特別名單(所有公司都有利潤增長記錄)。它是免費的。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。