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Is YOUNGY (SZSE:002192) A Risky Investment?

Is YOUNGY (SZSE:002192) A Risky Investment?

YOUNGY(深圳證券交易所:002192)是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  05/24 19:06

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that YOUNGY Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002192) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

傳奇基金經理李璐(受到查理·芒格支持)曾說:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會承受永久性的資本損失。” 當我們考慮一家公司的風險性時,我們總是喜歡看它的債務使用情況,因爲過載的債務可能會導致破產。 我們注意到YOUNGY股份有限公司(SZSE:002192)的資產負債表上確實有債務。 但更重要的問題是:這些債務會產生多少風險?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

債務帶來了什麼風險?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但如果企業無力償還債務,那麼它就取決於他們的恩情了。 最終,如果公司無法履行償還債務的法定義務,股東可能會一無所有。 然而,一種更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,一家公司必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東權益,以控制債務。 當然,債務的好處在於,它通常代表着廉價的資本,特別是當它以高收益率投資公司中的股權代替稀釋時。 在考慮企業使用多少債務時,首先要做的是將其現金和債務放在一起看。

How Much Debt Does YOUNGY Carry?

YOUNGY公司承擔多少債務?

As you can see below, at the end of March 2024, YOUNGY had CN¥100.1m of debt, up from CN¥66.0m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥1.51b in cash, so it actually has CN¥1.41b net cash.

正如下面所看到的,截至2024年3月底,YOUNGY負債10010萬元,比去年同期的6600萬元增加。 點擊圖像獲取更多詳細信息。 然而,它的資產負債表顯示其持有15.1億人民幣現金,因此實際上有14.1億人民幣的淨現金。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:002192 Debt to Equity History May 24th 2024
SZSE:002192債務股本歷史記錄2024年5月24日

How Strong Is YOUNGY's Balance Sheet?

YOUNGY的資產負債表有多強?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that YOUNGY had liabilities of CN¥482.3m falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥453.0m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.51b and CN¥280.6m worth of receivables due within a year. So it actually has CN¥855.9m more liquid assets than total liabilities.

從最近的資產負債表我們可以看到,YOUNGY有CN¥48230萬的負債在一年內到期,CN¥45300萬的負債在超過一年到期。 另一方面,它有15.1億元的現金和2,806萬元的應收賬款在一年內到期。 因此,它實際上擁有8559萬元。總負債還多出了更多的流動資產。

This surplus suggests that YOUNGY has a conservative balance sheet, and could probably eliminate its debt without much difficulty. Simply put, the fact that YOUNGY has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.

這種盈餘表明YOUNGY有一個保守的資產負債表,可能很容易消除其債務。 簡而言之,YOUNGY擁有的現金超過債務,可以安全地管理其債務,這是一個好的指標。

It is just as well that YOUNGY's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 80% over the last year. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if YOUNGY can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

幸好YOUNGY的負載不太重,因爲其EBIT在過去一年中下降了80%。 下降的收益(如果趨勢持續)可能會使即使是適度的債務變得非常風險。 顯然資產負債表是分析債務的關鍵。 但最終業務未來的盈利能力將決定YOUNGY能否隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。 因此,如果您想看看專業人士的看法,您可能會發現這份分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. YOUNGY may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the most recent three years, YOUNGY recorded free cash flow worth 66% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

最後,公司只能用實實在在的現金償還債務,而不能用會計利潤償還。 儘管YOUNGY在資產負債表上有淨現金,但查看企業將其利潤利息和稅前收入(EBIT)轉化爲自由現金流的程度仍然很有趣,因爲這將影響其管理債務的需求和能力。 在過去的三年中,YOUNGY的自由現金流價值爲其EBIT的66%,這是正常水平,因爲自由現金流不包括利息和稅收。 這種自由現金流使公司有能力在適當時期償還債務。

Summing Up

總之

While we empathize with investors who find debt concerning, you should keep in mind that YOUNGY has net cash of CN¥1.41b, as well as more liquid assets than liabilities. The cherry on top was that in converted 66% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in CN¥159m. So we don't have any problem with YOUNGY's use of debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for YOUNGY you should be aware of.

儘管我們理解投資者對債務的擔憂,但您應該記住,YOUNGY的淨現金爲14.1億元,而其流動資產超過其負債。 更出色的是,它將66%的EBIT轉化爲自由現金流,帶來了1.59億元的收入。 因此,我們對YOUNGY的債務使用沒有任何問題。 分析債務水平時,資產負債表是明顯的起點。 但最終,每個公司都可能存在超出資產負債表範圍的風險。 例如:我們已經發現3種YOUNGY的預警信號,您應該注意。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

如果您在所有這些工作之後,更感興趣於擁有堅實資產負債表的快速發展公司,請立即查看我們的淨現金成長股列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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