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Is Inly Media (SHSE:603598) A Risky Investment?

Is Inly Media (SHSE:603598) A Risky Investment?

Inly Media(上海證券交易所代碼:603598)是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  06/02 20:57

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Inly Media Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603598) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

作爲投資者,有些人認爲波動性,而不是負債,是風險的最佳指標,但禾倫·巴菲特曾經說過“波動性遠非風險的同義詞。” 當你考慮到一個公司有多大的風險時,自然就會考慮該公司的資產負債表,因爲債務通常會導致一個企業的破產。正如許多其他公司一樣,引力傳媒股份有限公司(SHSE:603598)也使用了負債。但是,股東們需要擔心它使用負債嗎?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

債務何時有危險?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

一般來說,當公司無法通過籌集資金或自有現金流來輕鬆償還債務時,負債才會真正成爲一個問題。資本主義的核心是“創造性破壞”過程,即破產的企業被銀行家無情地清算。然而,更常見的(但仍然令人痛苦的)情況是,在股價低位時不得不發行新的股權資本,從而永久性地稀釋股東的權益。當然,很多公司使用債務資金來支持業務增長,而沒有任何負面影響。在我們考慮負債水平時,我們首先考慮現金和負債水平的整體情況。

How Much Debt Does Inly Media Carry?

引力傳媒的債務到底有多少?

As you can see below, at the end of March 2024, Inly Media had CN¥264.1m of debt, up from CN¥210.3m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it does have CN¥51.1m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥213.0m.

正如下圖所示,在2024年3月底,引力傳媒的債務爲26410萬人民幣,而去年同期爲21030萬人民幣。點擊圖片獲取更多信息。然而,公司也有5110萬人民幣的現金用來抵掉債務,因此淨債務約爲21300萬人民幣。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SHSE:603598 Debt to Equity History June 3rd 2024
SHSE:603598 負債權益歷史記錄,截至2024年6月3日

A Look At Inly Media's Liabilities

了解引力傳媒的負債

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Inly Media had liabilities of CN¥1.14b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥50.5m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥51.1m and CN¥585.5m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥552.6m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Inly Media had liabilities of CN¥11.4億 due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥5050萬 due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥5110萬 and CN¥58550萬 worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥55260萬 more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Since publicly traded Inly Media shares are worth a total of CN¥4.15b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.

鑑於引力傳媒公開交易的股票總值爲41.5億人民幣,這種水平的負債似乎不可能構成主要威脅。但是,有足夠多的負債,我們建議股東繼續密切關注資產負債表的情況。

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

我們通過查看淨債務與利息、稅、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)之比以及計算其利息支出由收益前利息和稅(EBIT)覆蓋的程度來度量一家公司的債務負載相對於其收益能力的程度。此方法的優點在於我們同時考慮了債務的絕對量(以淨債務爲EBITDA)以及與該債務相關的實際利息支出(以其利息覆蓋倍數計算)。

Inly Media's debt is 3.5 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 6.8 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. We also note that Inly Media improved its EBIT from a last year's loss to a positive CN¥59m. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is Inly Media's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

引力傳媒的債務是EBITDA的3.5倍,而其EBIT則覆蓋了其利息支出的6.8倍。這表明,儘管債務水平相當高,但我們不認爲其構成問題。我們還注意到,引力傳媒將EBIT從去年的虧損提高到了正CN¥5900萬元。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解最多關於債務的情況。但是引力傳媒的盈利情況將影響其資產負債表在未來的持續情況,因此,在考慮債務時,值得看一看收益趨勢的情況。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) is backed by free cash flow. During the last year, Inly Media produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 70% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

最後,儘管財務人員可能很喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冰冷的現金。因此,檢查有多少利潤(在利息和稅前收入之前),由自由現金流支持。在過去的一年中,引力傳媒產生了強勁的自由現金流,相當於其EBIT的70%,這正是我們所預料的。這種自由現金流讓公司處於良好的償債位置。

Our View

我們的觀點

Inly Media's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its net debt to EBITDA. All these things considered, it appears that Inly Media can comfortably handle its current debt levels. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Inly Media (including 2 which are concerning) .

引力傳媒的EBIt轉化爲自由現金流,似乎與Cristiano Ronaldo向14歲以下守門員進球一樣容易處理其債務。但更爲嚴肅的是,我們對其淨債務與EBITDA之比有些擔憂。總而言之,考慮到這些因素,引力傳媒似乎可以輕鬆地應對其現有的債務水平。當然,雖然這種槓桿可以增強股本回報率,但它也帶來了更多的風險,因此,值得關注。在分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是應該關注的領域。但是,最終,每個公司都可能存在超越資產負債表範圍的風險。因此,您應該了解我們發現的三個警告信號(其中包括兩個令人擔憂的標誌)。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

歸根結底,專注於沒有淨債務的公司往往更好。您可以訪問我們的特別列表,其中包括所有表現出盈利增長軌跡的公司。這是免費的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

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