Treasury Yields Fall, Dollar Weakens As Manufacturing Activity Gauge Contracts More Than Expected
Treasury Yields Fall, Dollar Weakens As Manufacturing Activity Gauge Contracts More Than Expected
The U.S. manufacturing activity barometer contracted more than expected in May, leading to a sharp retreat in Treasury yields at the start of the week.
五月份美國製造業活動的晴雨表跌幅超出預期，導致本週開頭國債收益率急劇下挫。
After falling back into contraction in April, manufacturing activity continued to decline for the second consecutive month, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey.
據供應管理學會（ISM）的調查顯示，在四月份再次回落後，製造業活動在第二個連續的月份繼續下滑。
Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond fell by nine basis points to 4.41%, marking the third straight day of declines. Longer-dated yields also saw similar drops, with the 30-year yield retreating to 4.57%. This decline spurred a 0.9% rally in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT).
標準的十年期美國國債收益率下跌九個點子至4.41%，標誌着連續第三天下跌。同樣，較長期限的收益率也出現了類似的下跌，30年期收益率隨之回落到4.57%。這一下跌刺激了納斯達克(NASDAQ) iShares 20+年期國庫券ETF(TLT)上漲0.9%。
As yields fell, the U.S. dollar index broadly weakened against peers. The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) falling 0.4%.
由於收益率下跌，美元指數大幅下挫。紐約證券交易所市場上，景順DB美元指數看好基金ETF(NYSE:UUP)下跌0.4%。
Traders slightly increased wagers on a September rate cut, currently assigning a 59% chance. That's up from Friday's 55%, according to CME Group's FedWatch toll.
交易員略微增加了對9月份降息的押注，目前指定了59%的概率。根據芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，這比周五的55%有所增加。
April ISM Manufacturing PMI Report: Key Highlights
四月份ISM製造業PMI報告：重點亮點
- The ISM Manufacturing PMI Index fell to 48.7% in May, a 0.5 percentage point decrease from April's 49.2%, failing to meet economists' forecast of 49.7%.
- The New Orders Index stayed in contraction at 45.4%, which is 3.7 percentage points lower than April's 49.1%.
- The Production Index recorded 50.2%, dropping by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month's 51.3%.
- The Prices Index was 57%, a reduction of 3.9 percentage points from April's 60.9%.
- The Backlog of Orders Index stood at 42.4%, down 3 percentage points from April's 45.4%.
- Meanwhile, the Employment Index increased to 51.1%, up 2.5 percentage points from April's 48.6%.
- 五月份ISM製造業PMI指數降至48.7%，比4月份的49.2%下降了0.5個百分點，未能達到經濟學家預測的49.7%。
- 新訂單指數保持萎縮，爲45.4%，比4月份的49.1%低了3.7個百分點。
- 生產指數爲50.2%，比上個月的51.3%下降了1.1個百分點。
- 價格指數爲57%，比4月份的60.9%降低了3.9個百分點。
- 訂單積壓指數爲42.4%，比4月份的45.4%下降了3個百分點。
- 同時，就業指數從48.6%上升到51.1%，增長了2.5個百分點。
The Economist's Take
經濟學家的觀點
"Demand remains elusive as companies demonstrate an unwillingness to invest due to current monetary policy and other conditions," said Timothy Fiore, chair of the Institute for Supply Management.
供應管理學會主席蒂莫西·菲奧雷（Timothy Fiore）表示：“由於當前的貨幣政策和其他情況，公司表現出了不願意投資的不情願，需求依然很少。”
These investments are being deferred, encompassing supplier order commitments, inventory building, and capital expenditures.
這些投資正在被推遲，包括供應商訂單承諾、庫存建設和資本支出。
While production execution continued to expand, it remained flat compared to the previous month.
雖然生產執行繼續擴張，但與上個月保持持平。
According to Fiore, suppliers maintain capacity, with improved lead times and less severe shortages.
根據菲奧雷的說法，供應商保持產能，提高了交貨期並減少了嚴重的短缺。
Fiore indicated that 55% of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in May, an increase from 34 percent in April.
菲奧雷表示，製造業GDP的55%在五月份收縮，比四月份的34%增加了。
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