Continental Holdings Limited (HKG:513) shares have had a horrible month, losing 26% after a relatively good period beforehand. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 41% share price drop.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Continental Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Luxury industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.7x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

How Continental Holdings Has Been Performing

For instance, Continental Holdings' receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Continental Holdings?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Continental Holdings' is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 28%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 8.8% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 13% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Continental Holdings' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

With its share price dropping off a cliff, the P/S for Continental Holdings looks to be in line with the rest of the Luxury industry. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

The fact that Continental Holdings currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Having said that, be aware Continental Holdings is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 2 of those are a bit unpleasant.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.