European Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates By 0.25%, But Projects Inflation 'Above Target Well Into Next Year'
European Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates By 0.25%, But Projects Inflation 'Above Target Well Into Next Year'
The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, a move that was largely anticipated by the market, indicating the need to "moderate the degree of monetary policy restriction after nine months of holding rates steady."
歐洲央行週四下調利率25個點子，這一舉動市場是預期之中的，表明需要“適度減緩貨幣政策限制的程度，”此前已經維持利率穩定了九個月。
The new interest rates are set at 4.25% for main refinancing operations, 4.5% for the marginal lending facility and 3.75% for the deposit facility.
新的利率爲：主要再融資操作利率爲4.25%，邊界貸款設施利率爲4.5%，存款設施利率爲3.75%。
This is the first ECB rate cut since March 2016 for both the main refinancing operations rate and the marginal lending rate, and the first reduction in the deposit rate since September 2019.
這是歐洲央行自2016年3月以來首次降息，主要再融資操作利率和邊際貸款利率都是如此，而存款利率也是自2019年9月以來首次下調。
Furthermore, the ECB is the second major central bank to enact a rate cut this week, following the Bank of Canada's similar 25-basis-point reduction in the policy rate on Wednesday.
此外，歐洲央行是繼加拿大銀行週三實施類似的25個點子政策利率下調之後，第二家實施利率下調的主要央行。
ECB Revises 2024 Growth Outlook, Inflation To The Upside
歐洲央行修訂了2024年的增長前景，而通脹走勢向上。
The ECB statement indicates that headline inflation has fallen by 2.5 percentage points since September 2023 and "the outlook has improved markedly."
歐洲央行聲明指出，自2023年9月以來，總體通脹率下降了2.5個百分點，而“前景已經明顯改善”。
Frankfurt also warned that "domestic price pressures remain strong as wage growth is elevated, and inflation is likely to stay above target well into next year."
法蘭克福也警告說：“由於工資增長高企，國內物價壓力依然強勁，通脹可能會保持在目標之上，很可能持續到明年。”
Frankfurt also issued the June staff economic projections, which compared to March signal an upward revision for both growth and inflation for 2024. The central bank also made upward adjustments to expectations for price pressures next year.
法蘭克福還發布了6月的工作人員經濟預測報告，與3月相比，2024年的增長與通脹情況都得到了上調。中央銀行還上調了明年的價格壓力預期。
Headline inflation is now projected to average 2.5% in 2024 (up by 0.2 percentage points from May), 2.2% in 2025 (up by 0.2 percentage points from May) and 1.9% in 2026 (unchanged).
預計2024年總體通脹率平均爲2.5% （比5月份上調了0.2個百分點），2025年爲2.2%（比5月份上調了0.2個百分點），2026年爲1.9%（未變）。
Core inflation projections have also been revised upward by 0.2 percentage points to 2.8% for this year. Projections for 2025 have been raised by 0.1 percentage points to 2.1%, while those for 2026 were kept unchanged at 2.0%.
核心通脹預測今年也上調了0.2個百分點至2.8%。2025年的預測上調了0.1個百分點至2.1%，而2026年的預測則保持在2.0%。
Output growth is now expected to average 0.9% in 2024 (up from 0.6% in March), 1.4% in 2025 (down from 1.5% in March) and 1.6% in 2026 (unchanged).
預計2024年經濟增長率平均爲0.9%（比3月的0.6%上調），2025年爲1.4%（比3月的1.5%下調），2026年爲1.6%（未變）。
The ECB continues to reiterate that future policy decisions will depend on the evolution of data, following a meeting-by-meeting approach.
歐洲央行繼續強調未來的政策決策將取決於數據的發展，採用逐會議的方式。
Market Reactions
市場反應
The euro, as tracked by the Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust (NYSE:FXE), rose by 0.1% to 1.0885 against the dollar minutes after the ECB statement, as investors took as "hawkish" the upward revisions on inflation.
歐元指數型景順貨幣板塊信託股（NYSE: FXE）在歐洲央行發佈聲明後幾分鐘內上漲了0.1％，投資者認爲通脹上調“鷹派”。
Yields on major European sovereign bonds rose by about 4 basis points, with the 10-year Bund rising to 2.55%.
主要歐洲各國主權債券的收益率增加了約4個點子，10年期德國國債的收益率上升至2.55％。
European equity indices trimmed session gains in reaction to the ECB decision, after hitting all-time highs earlier this morning.
歐洲股市指數在歐洲央行決定後出現下降，此前它們在當天早些時候創下歷史新高。
Photo via Shutterstock.
圖片來自Shutterstock。