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We Think Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (SZSE:000869) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease

We Think Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (SZSE:000869) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease

我們認爲張裕能輕鬆應對其債務。
Simply Wall St ·  06/11 18:53

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine Company Limited (SZSE:000869) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司的巴菲特合夥人李錄毫不掩飾地表示:'最大的投資風險不在價格的波動性上,而在於你是否會遭受永久性資本損失。'當我們考慮一家公司有多大的風險時,我們總是喜歡看看它使用債務的情況,因爲債務過載可能會導致破產。我們注意到,煙臺張裕旗下張裕股份有限公司(深證股市:000869)確實有債務在其資產負債表上。但更重要的問題是:這些債務會帶來多大的風險呢?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

爲什麼債務會帶來風險?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

債務有助於企業,直到企業在新資本或自由現金流方面有困難償還債務。在最壞的情況下,如果企業無法償還其債權人,那麼該公司可能會破產。雖然這不是很常見,但我們經常看到負債的公司會因爲貸款人迫使它們以降價的價格籌集資本而永久稀釋股東。然而,通過取代稀釋,債務可以成爲需要高回報率投資於成長的企業的極好工具。當我們檢查債務水平時,我們首先考慮現金和債務水平的總和。

What Is Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine's Net Debt?

煙臺張裕旗下張裕股份有限公司的淨債務是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine had debt of CN¥446.4m at the end of March 2024, a reduction from CN¥639.8m over a year. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥2.06b in cash, so it actually has CN¥1.61b net cash.

你可以單擊下面的圖像查看更多詳細信息,它顯示煙臺張裕旗下張裕股份有限公司在2024年3月底的債務爲人民幣446.4萬元,較去年同期減少了人民幣639.8萬元。但其資產負債表顯示,該公司持有人民幣20.6億元的現金,因此實際上有淨現金16.1億元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:000869 Debt to Equity History June 11th 2024
SZSE:000869自2014年6月11日的資產負債率歷史記錄

A Look At Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine's Liabilities

評估煙臺張裕旗下張裕股份有限公司的負債水平

The latest balance sheet data shows that Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine had liabilities of CN¥1.56b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥175.6m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥2.06b and CN¥711.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So it actually has CN¥1.03b more liquid assets than total liabilities.

最新資產負債表數據顯示,煙臺張裕旗下張裕股份有限公司短期內要還清人民幣15.6億元的債務,之後還有人民幣1.756億元的債務。另一方面,該公司持有20.6億元人民幣和7.11億元人民幣在一年內到期應收賬款。因此,其實際上有10.3億元人民幣的淨現金。總負債還多出了更多的流動資產。

This short term liquidity is a sign that Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine could probably pay off its debt with ease, as its balance sheet is far from stretched. Succinctly put, Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

這種短期流動性的跡象表明,煙臺張裕旗下張裕股份有限公司很可能能夠輕鬆清償其債務,因爲其資產負債表遠未到極限。簡而言之,煙臺張裕旗下張裕股份有限公司擁有淨現金,因此可以說其沒有沉重的債務負擔!

On the other hand, Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine saw its EBIT drop by 4.4% in the last twelve months. That sort of decline, if sustained, will obviously make debt harder to handle. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

另一方面,煙臺張裕旗下張裕股份有限公司最近12個月的息稅前利潤下降了4.4%。如果這樣的下降持續下去,顯然會使債務的處理更加困難。很明顯,資產負債表是你分析債務的主要區域。但最終,企業未來的盈利能力,將決定煙臺張裕旗下張裕股份有限公司是否能夠隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果你想了解專業人士的看法,你可能會發現這份涉及分析師盈利預測的免費報告很有趣。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. While Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the last three years, Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.

最後,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤並不夠。儘管煙臺張裕旗下張裕股份有限公司在其資產負債表上具有淨現金,但人們仍然值得關注它把息稅前利潤轉化爲自由現金流的能力,以幫助我們了解它是如何快速建立(或侵蝕)其現金餘額的。過去三年,煙臺張裕旗下張裕股份有限公司實際上生產的自由現金流比息稅前利潤還多。在涉及保持債權人的好感方面,沒有比收到現金更好的了。

Summing Up

總之

While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine has CN¥1.61b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. And it impressed us with free cash flow of CN¥640m, being 119% of its EBIT. So we don't think Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine's use of debt is risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine .

雖然調查一家公司的債務使用情況總是明智的,但在這種情況下,煙臺張裕旗下張裕股份有限公司擁有淨現金16.1億元和看起來還不錯的資產負債表。此外,它還以6.4億元的自由現金流給我們留下了深刻印象,這是其息稅前利潤的119%。因此,我們認爲煙臺張裕旗下張裕股份有限公司使用債務並不具有風險。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解到的債務最多。但是,並不是所有的投資風險都在資產負債表上,遠非如此。因此,你應該知道我們發現的1個關於煙臺張裕旗下張裕股份有限公司的警告標誌。

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

說到底,有時更容易關注那些甚至不需要債務的公司。讀者可以免費查看零淨債務增長股票列表,立即獲得。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

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