O-I Glass (NYSE:OI) Use Of Debt Could Be Considered Risky
O-I Glass (NYSE:OI) Use Of Debt Could Be Considered Risky
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, O-I Glass, Inc. (NYSE:OI) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
資深基金經理李錄(受查利·芒格支持)曾經說過:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動性,而是您是否會承受資本永久損失。” 在考慮風險時,自然要考慮公司的資產負債表,因爲企業倒閉時通常涉及債務。O-I Glass,Inc.(紐交所:OI)確實有債務。但這種債務是否讓股東擔憂呢?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
爲什麼債務會帶來風險?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
債務支持企業直到企業無法償還債務,要麼通過新的資本,要麼通過自由現金流。在最糟糕的情況下,如果企業無法償還債權人的債務,它可能會破產。儘管這種情況並不常見,但我們經常看到負債的公司因貸方強制它們以不利價格募集資本而導致股東永久稀釋。話雖這樣說,最常見的情況是企業合理地管理它的債務,使其對自己有利。考慮企業使用債務量時,要做的第一件事是查看其現金和債務。
How Much Debt Does O-I Glass Carry?
O-I Glass負債有多少?
As you can see below, O-I Glass had US$4.75b of debt, at March 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it also had US$395.0m in cash, and so its net debt is US$4.36b.
正如下圖所示,在2024年3月,O-I Glass的債務爲47.5億美元,與前一年大致相同。您可以點擊圖表以獲取更詳細信息。但是它也有3.95億美元的現金,因此其淨債務爲43.6億美元。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240619/0-ddc6e36a08d28433690a0ea4e82223bb-0-62b7fd80b4713df1655dde70fef2421a.png/big)
How Healthy Is O-I Glass' Balance Sheet?
O-I Glass的資產負債表狀況如何?
The latest balance sheet data shows that O-I Glass had liabilities of US$2.60b due within a year, and liabilities of US$4.98b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$395.0m as well as receivables valued at US$801.0m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$6.39b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
最新資產負債表數據顯示,O-I Glass由於一年內總負債超過26億美元,並在此之後有超過49.8億美元的負債。抵銷這些義務,它有3.95億美元的現金以及12個月內到期的應收賬款價值8.01億美元。因此,其到期未償還負債總額超過63.9億美元。
This deficit casts a shadow over the US$1.85b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, O-I Glass would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
這個虧損巨額的數據就像是懸在那裏的一座大山,讓這個185億美元的公司蒙上了陰影。因此,我們肯定認爲股東需要密切關注這一點。畢竟,如果今天要償還債權人,O-I Glass很可能需要進行一次重大的再融資。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我們通過將公司的淨債務與其息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)相除,並計算其息稅前利潤(EBIT)如何覆蓋其利息費用(利息覆蓋率)來衡量公司的債務負擔相對於其盈利能力。因此,我們同時考慮債務的絕對數量以及所支付的利率。
While we wouldn't worry about O-I Glass's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.8, we think its super-low interest cover of 2.3 times is a sign of high leverage. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. More concerning, O-I Glass saw its EBIT drop by 7.8% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues the company will face an uphill battle to pay off its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine O-I Glass's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
雖然我們不擔心O-I Glass的淨債務/息稅前利潤比率爲3.8,但我們認爲其超低的利息覆蓋率爲2.3倍,是高負債的跡象。因此,股東應該意識到近期利息支出似乎真的對業務產生了影響。更令人擔憂的是,O-I Glass在過去十二個月中看到其息稅前利潤率下降了7.8%。如果這種盈利趨勢持續下去,公司將面臨償還債務的艱鉅挑戰。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表上了解債務的大多數信息。但未來的盈利,最終會決定O-I Glass能否維持一個健康的資產負債表。因此,如果您關注未來,您可以查看這份免費的報告,其中顯示分析師的利潤預測。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, O-I Glass recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.
最後,公司只能用冷硬現金而不是會計利潤償還債務。因此,我們需要清楚地了解EBIT是否導致相應的自由現金流。在過去的三年中,O-I Glass的自由現金流總額爲負數。對於自由現金流不可靠的公司來說,債務風險遠遠高於其他公司,因此股東應該希望過去的支出在未來能夠產生自由現金流。
Our View
我們的觀點
On the face of it, O-I Glass's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. And furthermore, its net debt to EBITDA also fails to instill confidence. Taking into account all the aforementioned factors, it looks like O-I Glass has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with O-I Glass .
從表面上看,O-I Glass的息稅前利潤轉化爲自由現金流的情況讓我們對這個股票持謹慎態度,而其總負債水平也不比最繁忙的晚上空蕩蕩的餐廳更具吸引力。此外,其淨債務/息稅前利潤比率也未能增強信心。考慮到所有上述因素,看起來O-I Glass的負債過高。雖然一些投資者喜歡這種冒險的投資,但對我們來說,這絕非我們的菜。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時要關注的領域。但最終,每個公司都可能存在超出資產負債表範圍的風險。爲此,您應該注意我們在O-I Glass中發現的一個警告信號。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
說到底,有時更容易關注那些甚至不需要債務的公司。讀者可以免費查看零淨債務增長股票列表,立即獲得。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或電郵 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或者,也可以發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com