WEIli Holdings Limited (HKG:2372) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 32% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 43% in that time.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, it's still not a stretch to say that WEIli Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Packaging industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.8x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

What Does WEIli Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?

For example, consider that WEIli Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, WEIli Holdings would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 34%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 40% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 21% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that WEIli Holdings' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Following WEIli Holdings' share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We find it unexpected that WEIli Holdings trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Plus, you should also learn about these 3 warning signs we've spotted with WEIli Holdings (including 2 which don't sit too well with us).

If you're unsure about the strength of WEIli Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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