These 4 Measures Indicate That Shenzhen Expressway (HKG:548) Is Using Debt Extensively
These 4 Measures Indicate That Shenzhen Expressway (HKG:548) Is Using Debt Extensively
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Shenzhen Expressway Corporation Limited (HKG:548) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
作爲投資者,有人認爲波動性而不是債務是風險考慮的最佳方式,但禾倫·巴菲特曾經說過“波動性遠非風險的同義詞”。當你檢查一家公司的風險時,考慮其資產負債表是再自然不過的了,因爲債務通常在企業破產時會牽涉其中。我們注意到,深高速公路股份有限公司(HKG:548)的負債表上確實有債務。但這是否會給股東帶來擔憂呢?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
債務何時有危險?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
當債務和其他負債對一家企業來說難以便捷地履行那些義務,無論是通過自由現金流還是以優惠價格發行股本來履行時,其就會面臨風險。最終,如果該公司無法履行償還債務的法定義務,股東可能一分錢都拿不到。但更常見的(但仍然痛苦的)情況是,它必須以低價發行新股權,從而永久地稀釋股東的權益。話雖如此,最常見的情況是一家公司合理地管理其債務,並以自身的利益爲前提。當我們思考一家公司的債務使用時,首先要關注現金和債務。
How Much Debt Does Shenzhen Expressway Carry?
深高速公路負載了多少債務?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2024 Shenzhen Expressway had CN¥32.9b of debt, an increase on CN¥31.0b, over one year. On the flip side, it has CN¥3.66b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥29.3b.
你可以點擊下面的圖表查看歷史數字,但它顯示,截至2024年3月,深高速公路負載着329億元的債務,比一年前的310億元有所增加。另一方面,深高速公路也擁有36.6億元的現金,淨債務約爲293億元。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240621/0-dd73bb421446030ef47c14d1ac9f2287-0-b426957ae2afd60ce2a3edda50bb1f28.png/big)
How Strong Is Shenzhen Expressway's Balance Sheet?
深高速公路的資產負債表有多強?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Shenzhen Expressway had liabilities of CN¥19.7b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥19.3b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had CN¥3.66b in cash and CN¥2.09b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥33.3b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
根據最近一份資產負債表,深高速公路有197億元的短期負債和193億元的長期負債。雖然有短期應收賬款的36.6億元和應收賬款的20.9億元,但總負債比其現金和短期應收賬款的總和高33.3億元。這個赤字就像是高聳在普通人頭頂上的巨人,給這家公司帶來了許多負面影響。因此,我們認爲股東需要密切關注。畢竟,如果深高速公路必須今天向債權人支付債務,它可能需要進行大規模再融資。
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥20.5b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Shenzhen Expressway would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
深高速公路目前的情況確實讓人擔憂,因爲其淨債務與EBITDA比率爲6.0,但非常強的利息覆蓋率爲0.1萬。這意味着它要麼擁有非常便宜的長期債務,要麼其利息支出將會增長!在過去的十二個月中,我們看到深高速公路的營收利潤增長了6.8%。雖然這沒有讓我們感到非常興奮,但在債務方面是一個積極的表現。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
通過查看公司的淨債務與利息、稅、折舊、攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)之比以及它的利息費用(利息覆蓋率)可以衡量一個公司的債務負擔與收益能力。因此,我們考慮將債務與有無計算折舊和攤銷費用的收益相對比。
As it happens Shenzhen Expressway has a fairly concerning net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.0 but very strong interest coverage of 1k. So either it has access to very cheap long term debt or that interest expense is going to grow! We saw Shenzhen Expressway grow its EBIT by 6.8% in the last twelve months. Whilst that hardly knocks our socks off it is a positive when it comes to debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Shenzhen Expressway can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
資產負債表顯然是分析債務時的重點。但最終,企業未來的盈利能力將決定深高速公路能否隨時間加強其資產負債表。所以,如果你想知道專業人士的看法,你可能會發現這份免費的分析師利潤預測報告很有趣。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Shenzhen Expressway produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 64% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
但我們最後考慮的也是很重要的,因爲一家公司不能用紙面利潤來償還債務,它需要現金。因此,邏輯上應該看到EBIT的多少被實際的自由現金流所匹配。在過去的三年中,深高速公路所產生的可靠的自由現金流相當於其EBIT的64%,這正是我們所期望的。這些冷酷的現金意味着它可以在需要時減少債務。
Our View
我們的觀點
Neither Shenzhen Expressway's ability to handle its total liabilities nor its net debt to EBITDA gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But its interest cover tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. It's also worth noting that Shenzhen Expressway is in the Infrastructure industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Shenzhen Expressway is taking some risks with its use of debt. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Shenzhen Expressway is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is significant...
深圳高速公路的總負債處理能力和其淨債務/息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)比率都讓我們對其再借債能力缺乏信心。但其利息覆蓋率卻講述了一個截然不同的故事,並表現出一些抗風險的能力。此外,需要注意的是,深圳高速公路是製造行業的一員,這個行業通常被認爲是非常防禦性的。當我們考慮到所有這些因素時,我們認爲深圳高速公路在運用債務方面存在風險。雖然債務可以提高回報,但我們認爲該公司現在的槓桿已經足夠了。平衡表明顯是分析債務時關注的重點領域。然而,並非所有的投資風險都存在於平衡表中-遠非如此。請注意,我們在投資分析中發現深圳高速公路出現了兩個警告信號,其中一個是顯著的……
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
說到底,有時更容易關注那些甚至不需要債務的公司。讀者可以免費查看零淨債務增長股票列表,立即獲得。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或電郵 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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