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Here's Why Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD (SZSE:000957) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

Here's Why Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD (SZSE:000957) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

以下是中通客車控股有限公司(股票代碼:000957)管理其債務的原因。
Simply Wall St ·  06/20 22:04

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Zhongtong Bus Holding Co.,LTD (SZSE:000957) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

伯克希爾哈撒韋的孟格(Charlie Munger)支持的外部基金管理人Li Lu明確表示,“最大的投資風險不是價格波動,而是您是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。”因此,當你考慮某支股票有多冒險時,需要考慮債務,因爲太多債務可能會使公司倒閉。我們注意到中通客車股份有限公司(SZSE:000957)確實有債務在負債表上。但真正的問題是這些債務是否會使公司變得冒險。

When Is Debt A Problem?

什麼時候負債才是一個問題?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

通常情況下,只有當公司無法輕鬆償還債務,要麼通過發行股票籌集資本,要麼通過現金流償還債務時,債務才能成爲真正的問題。在最壞的情況下,如果公司無法償還債權人的債務,會破產。然而,更經常(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,公司必須以極低的價格發行股票,永久性稀釋股東的利益,以扶持其資產負債表。 通過代替稀釋,債務可以成爲需要資本以高回報投資於增長的企業的一種非常好的工具。當我們考慮一個公司的債務使用時,我們首先查看現金和債務的結合。

What Is Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD's Net Debt?

中通客車股份有限公司的淨負債是多少?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD had CN¥484.3m of debt in March 2024, down from CN¥1.05b, one year before. But it also has CN¥2.34b in cash to offset that, meaning it has CN¥1.86b net cash.

點擊下面的圖形以查看歷史數據,但它顯示中通客車股份有限公司在2024年3月有4.843億元債務,比一年前的10.5億元下降。但是,它也有23.4億元的現金來抵消它,這意味着它有18.6億元的淨現金。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:000957 Debt to Equity History June 21st 2024
SZSE:000957的資產負債比歷史記錄

A Look At Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD's Liabilities

放大最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到中通客車股份有限公司在12個月內到期的負債爲56.6億元,超過4542萬元到期的負債。另一方面,它有23.4億元的現金和34.4億元的短期應收賬款。因此,它的負債總額超過現金和短期應收賬款合計3.333億元。

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD had liabilities of CN¥5.66b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥454.2m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥2.34b and CN¥3.44b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥333.3m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

考慮到中通客車股份有限公司的市值達63.7億元,很難相信這些負債會帶來多少威脅。話雖如此,顯然我們應該繼續監督它的資產負債表,以防情況惡化。儘管它的負債有所增加,但中通客車股份有限公司擁有淨現金,因此可以說它沒有負擔沉重的債務!

Given Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD has a market capitalization of CN¥6.37b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

股東應該注意到,中通客車股份有限公司去年的息稅前利潤下降了43%。如果這種下跌持續下去,償還債務將會比在素食者大會上銷售鵝肝更難。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是,您不能孤立地查看債務;因爲中通客車股份有限公司需要盈利來償還債務。因此,如果您想進一步了解其收益情況,不妨查看其長期收益趨勢圖。

Shareholders should be aware that Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD's EBIT was down 43% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

但我們最終的考慮也很重要,因爲一家公司不能用紙質利潤支付債務;它需要現金。中通客車股份有限公司可能在資產負債表上有淨現金,但看看公司如何將其息稅前利潤轉化爲自由現金流,這仍然很有趣,因爲這將影響它需要以及管理債務的能力。值得股東高興的是,在過去兩年中,中通客車股份有限公司實際上產生的自由現金流大於息稅前利潤。這種強勁的現金生成方式讓我們的心暖如熊蜂裝扮的小狗。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Happily for any shareholders, Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last two years. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.

雖然查看公司的總負債始終是明智的,但中通客車股份有限公司有18.6億元的淨現金仍讓人感到安心。其中一點是,公司自由現金流在過去兩年已經超過了息稅前利潤的1555%,這是加上一點調料,使其有1.1億元的自由現金流。因此,我們對中通客車股份有限公司的運用債務沒有任何問題。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是,最終,每家公司都會存在超越資產負債表之外的風險。例如,中通客車股份有限公司有3個警告標誌,我們認爲您應該注意。

Summing Up

總之

While it is always sensible to look at a company's total liabilities, it is very reassuring that Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD has CN¥1.86b in net cash. The cherry on top was that in converted 1,555% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in CN¥1.1b. So we don't have any problem with Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD's use of debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

但我們最終的考慮也很重要,因爲一家公司不能用紙質利潤支付債務;它需要現金。中通客車股份有限公司在資產負債表上可能有淨現金,但看看公司如何將其息稅前利潤轉化爲自由現金流,這仍然很有趣,因爲這將影響其需要以及管理債務的能力。有好消息是,中通客車股份有限公司在過去兩年中實際上產生的自由現金流比息稅前利潤多。這種強勁的現金生成率使我們感覺舒服。雖然查看公司的總負債始終是明智的,但中通客車股份有限公司有18.6億元的淨現金仍讓人感到安心。此外,它將其1555%的息稅前利潤轉化爲自由現金流,總計11億元。因此,我們對中通客車股份有限公司的運用債務沒有任何問題。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但說到底,每個公司都可能存在超越資產負債表之外的風險。例如,中通客車股份有限公司有3個警告標誌,我們認爲您應該注意。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

如果您在所有這些工作之後,更感興趣於擁有堅實資產負債表的快速發展公司,請立即查看我們的淨現金成長股列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或者發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。

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