Is Sage Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SAGE) In A Good Position To Deliver On Growth Plans?
Is Sage Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SAGE) In A Good Position To Deliver On Growth Plans?
Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, although software-as-a-service business Salesforce.com lost money for years while it grew recurring revenue, if you held shares since 2005, you'd have done very well indeed. But while history lauds those rare successes, those that fail are often forgotten; who remembers Pets.com?
僅因業務不盈利並不意味着股票會下跌。例如,像軟件即服務業務Salesforce.com一樣,儘管多年來一直在增加經常性收入但沒有盈利,如果你自2005年以來持有股份,那麼你的確做得很好。但是,雖然歷史讚揚了那些罕見的成功,但失敗的人通常會被遺忘; 誰還記得Pets.com呢?
So, the natural question for Sage Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SAGE) shareholders is whether they should be concerned by its rate of cash burn. In this article, we define cash burn as its annual (negative) free cash flow, which is the amount of money a company spends each year to fund its growth. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.
因此,對於Sage Therapeutics(納斯達克:sage therapeutics)股東來說,自然的問題是他們應該擔心它的現金流出率。在本文中,我們將現金流出率定義爲其年度(負面的)自由現金流,即公司每年用於資金增長的金額。第一步是將其現金流出率與其現金儲備進行比較,以確定其“現金墊跑路期”。
When Might Sage Therapeutics Run Out Of Money?
Sage Therapeutics 何時會用盡資金?
A company's cash runway is the amount of time it would take to burn through its cash reserves at its current cash burn rate. In March 2024, Sage Therapeutics had US$717m in cash, and was debt-free. In the last year, its cash burn was US$425m. Therefore, from March 2024 it had roughly 20 months of cash runway. Notably, analysts forecast that Sage Therapeutics will break even (at a free cash flow level) in about 4 years. That means unless the company reduces its cash burn quickly, it may well look to raise more cash. The image below shows how its cash balance has been changing over the last few years.
公司的現金跑道是指以其現有現金燃燒率計算,公司的現金儲備能支撐其多長時間。截至2024年3月,Sage Therapeutics 的現金儲備爲7.17億美元,沒有負債。在過去的一年裏,其現金燃燒爲4.25億美元。因此,從2024年3月開始,該公司大約還有20個月的現金跑道。值得注意的是,分析師預測Sage Therapeutics將在約4年內實現盈虧平衡(以自由現金流水平爲標準)。這意味着,除非公司迅速削減現金燃燒,否則很可能會尋求籌集更多資金。下圖顯示了公司過去幾年現金餘額的變化情況。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240622/0-642dc807e9ef0091304459897857d822-0-04e1012a9c29ba379edc1ccc3ae055b8.png/big)
How Well Is Sage Therapeutics Growing?
Sage Therapeutics增長情況如何?
Sage Therapeutics reduced its cash burn by 16% during the last year, which points to some degree of discipline. But this achievement is overshadowed by the brilliant operating revenue growth of 869%. We think it is growing rather well, upon reflection. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.
Sage Therapeutics在過去一年中將現金流出率降低了16%,這表明了一定程度的紀律性。但是,869%的出色營收增長使這一成就黯然失色。我們認爲它的增長相當不錯。然而,顯然,關鍵因素是該公司是否將來將拓展業務。因此,查看公司的分析師預測是非常有意義的。
How Easily Can Sage Therapeutics Raise Cash?
Sage Therapeutics能輕易籌集資金嗎?
Sage Therapeutics seems to be in a fairly good position, in terms of cash burn, but we still think it's worthwhile considering how easily it could raise more money if it wanted to. Companies can raise capital through either debt or equity. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash and drive growth. We can compare a company's cash burn to its market capitalisation to get a sense for how many new shares a company would have to issue to fund one year's operations.
在現金流出率方面,Sage Therapeutics似乎處於一個相當不錯的位置,但我們仍然認爲,考慮如果它想要籌集更多資金會很容易是值得的。公司可以通過債務或股權發行來籌集資金。通常,企業將出售新的股份,以籌集資金和推動增長。我們可以將公司的現金流出率與其市值進行比較,以了解公司需要發行多少新股票來籌集一年的運營資金。
Sage Therapeutics has a market capitalisation of US$642m and burnt through US$425m last year, which is 66% of the company's market value. Given how large that cash burn is, relative to the market value of the entire company, we'd consider it to be a high risk stock, with the real possibility of extreme dilution.
Sage Therapeutics的市值爲6.42億美元,去年的現金燃燒情況爲4.25億美元,相當於該公司市值的66%。考慮到現金燃燒相對於整個公司市值的規模如此之大,我們認爲它是一隻高風險股票,極有可能出現極度稀釋。
How Risky Is Sage Therapeutics' Cash Burn Situation?
Sage Therapeutics的現金燃燒情況有多大風險?
On this analysis of Sage Therapeutics' cash burn, we think its revenue growth was reassuring, while its cash burn relative to its market cap has us a bit worried. Shareholders can take heart from the fact that analysts are forecasting it will reach breakeven. Even though we don't think it has a problem with its cash burn, the analysis we've done in this article does suggest that shareholders should give some careful thought to the potential cost of raising more money in the future. Its important for readers to be cognizant of the risks that can affect the company's operations, and we've picked out 2 warning signs for Sage Therapeutics that investors should know when investing in the stock.
在對Sage Therapeutics的現金流出率進行分析後,我們認爲其營收增長令人放心,但是相對於市值的現金流出率令我們有些擔憂。股東可以從分析師正在預測其將達到盈虧平衡的事實中獲得安慰。儘管我們認爲它的現金流出率沒有問題,但本文中所做的分析確實表明,股東應認真考慮將來籌集更多資金的潛在成本。讀者需要了解可能影響公司運營的風險,我們在文章中挑選了2個Sage Therapeutics的警告信號,投資股票的投資者應該知道。
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies with significant insider holdings, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)
當然,您也可以通過在其他地方尋找找到出色的投資機會。因此,請查看具有重要內部股權的公司的免費列表,以及此分析師預測的股票成長列表。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或電郵 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或者,也可以發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com