Calculating The Fair Value Of Qingdao Eastsoft Communication Technology Co.,Ltd (SZSE:300183)
Calculating The Fair Value Of Qingdao Eastsoft Communication Technology Co.,Ltd (SZSE:300183)
Key Insights
主要見解
- Qingdao Eastsoft Communication TechnologyLtd's estimated fair value is CN¥10.63 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Current share price of CN¥11.35 suggests Qingdao Eastsoft Communication TechnologyLtd is potentially trading close to its fair value
- Qingdao Eastsoft Communication TechnologyLtd's peers seem to be trading at a higher premium to fair value based onthe industry average of -258%
- 根據2階段自由現金流股權估值法,青島東軟通信技術股份有限公司的預期公允價值爲人民幣10.63元。
- 青島東軟通信技術股份有限公司當前的股價爲人民幣11.35元,表明其潛在交易價值接近其公允價值。
- 根據行業平均-258%的數據,青島東軟通信技術股份有限公司的同行業估值溢價水平較高。
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Qingdao Eastsoft Communication Technology Co.,Ltd (SZSE:300183) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
今天我們將通過一個方法來估算青島東軟通信技術股份有限公司(SZSE:300183)的內在價值,即通過預期未來現金流並將其貼現到現值。我們將利用貼現現金流模型(DCF)來實現這一目的。雖然聽起來很複雜,但其實很簡單!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
公司可以用很多種方式進行估值,因此我們指出DCF並不適用於每一種情況。 如果您仍然對這種估值方法有疑問,請查看Simply Wall St分析模型。
The Calculation
計算方法
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我們採用了所謂的2級模型,這意味着我們爲公司的現金流漲幅設定了兩個不同的時間段。一般來說,第一階段增長較快,第二階段則是增長較慢的階段。在第一階段,我們需要估計未來十年的業務現金流。由於我們無法使用任何自由現金流的分析師估計值,因此我們需要從公司的上一個報告的現金自由流量(FCF)進行推算。我們假設自由現金流減少的公司將減緩其減少速度,而自由現金流增長的公司將在這個時間段內看到其增長速度變慢。我們這樣做是爲了反映增長在初期年份的減速程度比晚期年份的減速程度更大。
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
普遍認爲今天的一美元比將來的一美元更有價值,因此我們需要貼現這些未來的現金流總和來得出現值估計:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
10年自由現金流(FCF)預測
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥191.6m | CN¥217.4m | CN¥239.7m | CN¥259.1m | CN¥276.0m | CN¥291.0m | CN¥304.6m | CN¥317.2m | CN¥329.1m | CN¥340.7m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 17.96% | Est @ 13.44% | Est @ 10.28% | Est @ 8.07% | Est @ 6.52% | Est @ 5.43% | Est @ 4.67% | Est @ 4.14% | Est @ 3.77% | Est @ 3.51% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.1% | CN¥177 | CN¥186 | CN¥190 | CN¥190 | CN¥187 | CN¥183 | CN¥177 | CN¥171 | CN¥164 | CN¥157 |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
槓桿自由現金流量(人民幣,百萬) | 人民幣191.6百萬元 | 人民幣217.4百萬元 | 人民幣239.7百萬元 | 人民幣259.1百萬元 | 人民幣276.0百萬元 | 人民幣291.0百萬元 | 人民幣304.6百萬元 | 人民幣317.2百萬元 | 人民幣329.1百萬元 | 人民幣340.7百萬元 |
創業板增長率預測來源 | 預計增長率爲17.96%時 | 預計增長率爲13.44%時 | 預計增長率爲10.28%時 | 按8.07%估算 | 估值:6.52% | 以5.43%的速度估算 | 以3.99%估算的金額 | 預期增長率 4.14% | 以3.77%爲估計值 | 預計@ 3.51% |
現值(百萬人民幣)貼現率爲8.1% | 177人民幣 | 186人民幣 | CN¥190 | CN¥190 | 人民幣187元 | 人民幣183元 | 177人民幣 | 171元人民幣 | 人民幣164 | 157元人民幣 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥1.8b
("Est" = FCF增長率估計由Simply Wall St)
10年現金流的現值(PVCF)= 18億人民幣
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.1%.
我們現在需要計算終端價值,它包括此十年期後所有未來現金流。出於多種原因,我們使用非常保守的增長率,它不能超過一個國家的GDP增長率。在這種情況下,我們使用了10年期政府債券收益率的5年均值(2.9%)來估計未來增長。與10年的'增長'期相同,我們使用權益成本率8.1%將未來現金流貼現至今天的價值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥341m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.1%– 2.9%) = CN¥6.8b
終止價值(TV)= FCF2033 ×(1 + g)÷(r-g)=人民幣341百萬元×(1 + 2.9%)÷(8.1%–2.9%)=人民幣6.8十億
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥6.8b÷ ( 1 + 8.1%)10= CN¥3.1b
終止價值現值(PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10 =人民幣6.8十億÷(1 + 8.1%)=10人民幣3.1十億
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥4.9b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥11.4, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
總價值或股權價值等於未來現金流的現值之和,本例中爲49億元人民幣。最後一步是將股權價值除以流通股數。與當前的11.4元人民幣的股價相比,在撰寫本文時,該公司似乎在公平價值附近。但請記住,這只是一個近似估值,並且像任何複雜的公式一樣,垃圾進,垃圾出。
![dcf](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240625/0-e9dad7301317f8d75cd4b79ee76f790f-0-613283470dad32c03360df633fb9746d.png/big)
The Assumptions
假設
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Qingdao Eastsoft Communication TechnologyLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.915. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
我們指出折現現金流的最重要輸入是貼現率和實際現金流。您不必同意這些輸入,我建議您重新計算並進行調整。 DCF模型還未考慮行業的週期性可能性或公司未來的資本需求,因此不能完全反映公司的潛在業績。鑑於我們作爲潛在股東正在尋找青島東軟通信技術有限公司,所以使用權益成本作爲貼現率,而不是考慮債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了8.1%,該數字基於0.915的槓桿貝塔。 Beta是一隻股票與整個市場波動率的比較。我們從全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔值中獲得我們的貝塔值,強制限制在0.8至2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。
Moving On:
接下來:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Qingdao Eastsoft Communication TechnologyLtd, we've put together three additional factors you should further research:
儘管公司的估值很重要,但理想情況下,它不應是您仔細審查公司的唯一分析片段。DCF模型並不是完美的股票估值工具。最好您可以應用不同的情境和假設,並查看它們如何影響公司的估值。例如,公司的權益成本或無風險利率的變化可能會顯着影響估值。關於青島東軟通信技術有限公司,我們還整理了三個附加因素供您進一步研究:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Qingdao Eastsoft Communication TechnologyLtd (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
- Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!
- 風險:例如,我們發現了三個預警信號,其中一個非常重要,您在此之前應該注意在青島東軟通信技術有限公司進行投資。
- 其他高質量選擇:你喜歡一個好的多面手嗎?瀏覽我們的高質量股票交互列表,了解還有哪些你可能錯過的好東西!
- 其他分析師推薦:有興趣看看分析師的想法嗎?請查看我們的交互式分析師股票推薦列表,以了解他們認爲哪些股票具有有吸引力的未來前景!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
PS:Simply Wall St應用程序每天爲深交所上市的每隻股票進行貼現現金流估值。如果您想查找其他股票的計算,請在此搜索。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或者發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。