Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated on Tuesday that it is premature to lower the policy rate, and indicated her readiness to support further rate hikes if inflation worsens.
While giving a speech in London, Bowman noted that "we have seen only modest further progress on inflation" in 2024 and warned that increased immigration and continued labor market tightness could sustain high core services inflation.
Bowman highlighted that the 12-month measures of total and core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation have been stable or slightly declined since December, standing at 2.7 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, in April.
The consumer price index (CPI) report for May indicated a decrease in 12-month core CPI inflation to 3.4 percent from 3.6 percent in April.
However, average core CPI inflation for the year through May is 3.8 percent, higher than the second half of last year's average, suggesting elevated inflation may persist. With tight labor markets, wage growth remains high at around 4%, surpassing the level consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation goal given trend productivity growth.
"Looking ahead, I will be closely watching the incoming data," Bowman noted, underscoring the Fed's data-dependent stance. She expects inflation to eventually return to the 2% target, contingent on maintaining the federal funds rate at its current range of 5.25-5.50% "for some time."
"We are still not yet at the point where it is appropriate to lower the policy rate," she noted, adding that she "will remain cautious in the approach to future changes in policy stance."
Bowman clarified that if data indicate inflation is moving sustainably towards the 2% goal, it will become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to avoid overly restrictive monetary policy. Conversely, she maintained a hawkish stance, stating, "I remain willing to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at a future meeting should progress on inflation stall or even reverse."
Market Reactions
Following Bowman's remarks, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), saw a slight increase against major pairs between 7:00 and 8:00 a.m. ET.
The euro-dollar exchange rate dropped to about 1.07, partially reversing Monday's gains. Treasury yields remained broadly flat at the short end of the curve but fell slightly in the longer-dated part. U.S. equity futures were broadly positive in premarket trading amid a tech rebound.
Contracts on the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, while those on the Nasdaq increased by over 0.8%. The tech sector, as tracked by The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLK), and the semiconductor industry, as tracked by the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:SMH), were up 0.7% and 1.1%,
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聯儲局理事米歇爾·鮑曼週二表示，現在降低政策利率還爲時過早，並表示如果通貨膨脹惡化，她願意支持進一步加息。
鮑曼在倫敦發表演講時指出，2024年 “我們在通貨膨脹方面僅看到微不足道的進一步進展”，並警告說，移民人數的增加和勞動力市場的持續緊張可能會維持核心服務的高通脹。
鮑曼強調，自12月以來，12個月的個人消費總支出（PCE）通脹指標一直穩定或略有下降，4月份分別爲2.7％和2.8％。
5月份的消費者物價指數（CPI）報告顯示，12個月核心消費者價格指數通脹率從4月份的3.6％下降至3.4％。
但是，截至5月的一年中，核心消費者價格指數的平均通脹率爲3.8％，高於去年下半年的平均水平，這表明通貨膨脹率可能持續上升。在勞動力市場緊張的情況下，工資增長仍然很高，約爲4％，在生產率增長趨勢下，超過了與聯儲局2％的通貨膨脹目標一致的水平。
鮑曼指出：“展望未來，我將密切關注即將到來的數據，” 他強調了聯儲局依賴數據的立場。她預計，通貨膨脹率最終將恢復到2％的目標，前提是 “在一段時間內” 將聯邦基金利率維持在目前的5.25-5.50％區間內。
她指出：“我們還沒有達到降低政策利率的適當階段，” 她補充說，她 “在應對未來政策立場變化時將保持謹慎態度。”
鮑曼澄清說，如果數據顯示通貨膨脹率持續向2％的目標邁進，則應逐步降低聯邦基金利率，以避免過於嚴格的貨幣政策。相反，她保持鷹派立場，並表示：“如果通貨膨脹停滯甚至逆轉，我仍然願意在未來的會議上提高聯邦基金利率的目標區間。”
市場反應
鮑曼發表講話後，景順數據庫美元指數看漲基金ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：UUP）追蹤的美元指數（DXY）在美國東部時間上午7點至8點之間兌主要貨幣對小幅上漲。
歐元兌美元匯率跌至1.07左右，部分逆轉了週一的漲勢。美國國債收益率在曲線短端基本持平，但長期部分略有下降。在科技股反彈的背景下，美國股票期貨在盤前交易中普遍表現樂觀。
標準普爾500指數的合約上漲了0.3％，而納斯達克指數的合約上漲了0.8％以上。能源精選板塊SPDR基金（紐約證券交易所代碼：XLK）追蹤的科技板塊和VanEck半導體ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：SMH）追蹤的半導體行業分別上漲0.7％和1.1％，
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