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We Think SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd (SZSE:002218) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

We Think SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd (SZSE:002218) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

我們認爲深圳拓普集成(SZSE:002218)在債務方面存在一定風險
Simply Wall St ·  06/25 20:51

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:002218) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

傳奇基金經理陸杉(得到查理·芒格的支持)曾說過:“最大的投資風險不是價格波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性資本損失。”當您評估一家公司的風險時,考慮到債務通常是業務崩潰的因素之一,因此多個財務指標需要考慮,可以看到SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司(SZSE:002218)確實在業務運行中使用了多項債務融資。但股東們是否應該擔心它的債務使用情況呢?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

爲什麼債務會帶來風險?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

債務在企業沒有還清它的時候會幫助企業,這要麼是通過新的資本或通過自由現金流,但在最壞的情況下,如果公司無法償還其債權人,公司就會破產。但更常見的(但仍然昂貴)情況是,公司必須在便宜的股票價格下稀釋股東才能控制債務。當然,很多公司使用債務來資助業務增長,而沒有任何負面後果。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,首先要做的是看它的現金和債務。

How Much Debt Does SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd Carry?

SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司有多少負債?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd had debt of CN¥1.91b, up from CN¥1.39b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥770.8m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥1.13b.

下圖顯示,截至2024年3月,SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司債務總額爲190 RMB,比去年的139 RMB增長。然而,由於該公司現金儲備爲77.080 RMB,其淨債務水平較低,約爲 113 RMB。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:002218 Debt to Equity History June 26th 2024
SZSE: 002218股權的負債與資產關係歷史走勢圖(2024年6月26日)

A Look At SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd's Liabilities

SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司的負債情況

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd had liabilities of CN¥877.7m falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥1.73b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥770.8m as well as receivables valued at CN¥1.40b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥444.9m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

我們可以從最近的資產負債表上看到,SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司應於一年內支付的負債總額爲87.77 RMB,應於一年以上支付的負債總額爲1.73億 RMB。抵消這些債務的是,它有77.080 RMB的現金以及收賬價值爲14億的應於12個月內到期收款。所以,其負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款總額高444.90 RMB。

Given SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd has a market capitalization of CN¥3.96b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.

考慮到SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司的市值爲39.6億RMB,很難相信這些負債會帶來多大的威脅。然而,很明顯我們應該繼續關注它的資產負債表,以防情況惡化。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

爲了考察公司債務與盈利的相對關係,我們計算其淨債務與利息、稅、折舊和攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的比值以及其利息支出(利息保障倍數)與利潤之前的利潤(EBIT)的比值。這種方法的優點是,我們考慮了與債務相關的絕對量(淨債務與EBITDA)和實際利息開支(利息保障倍數)的實際利潤。

While we wouldn't worry about SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.2, we think its super-low interest cover of 1.2 times is a sign of high leverage. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. Worse, SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd's EBIT was down 68% over the last year. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

雖然我們不會擔心SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司的淨債務與EBITDA比率爲3.2,但我們認爲其超低的利息覆蓋率爲1.2倍是高槓杆的標誌。這在很大程度上歸因於公司的折舊及攤銷費用,這些費用可能使其EBITDA成爲一種非常慷慨的收益衡量指標,其債務可能比首次出現時更加沉重。顯然,借錢的成本對股東的回報產生了負面影響。更糟的是,SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司的EBIt在過去一年中下降了68%。如果收益繼續遵循這種軌跡,償還負債將比讓我們在雨中奔跑更艱難。資產負債表顯然是您分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司的收益情況將影響其資產負債表在未來的經營狀況。因此,如果您想更多地了解其收益情況,請查看公司在創業板上長期的收益趨勢圖。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd reported free cash flow worth 4.6% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.

最後,雖然稅務部門可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冰冷的現金。因此,我們始終會檢查EBIt轉化爲自由現金流的數量。在過去三年中,SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司報告的自由現金流價值約爲其EBIt的4.6%,這實際上是相當低的。這種低水平的現金轉化率削弱了其管理和償還債務的能力。

Our View

我們的觀點

On the face of it, SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd's interest cover left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at staying on top of its total liabilities; that's encouraging. Overall, we think it's fair to say that SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd (2 are significant) you should be aware of.

從表面上看,SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司的利息覆蓋率讓我們對該股持有觀望態度,其EBIt增長率也不如一年中最繁忙的晚上唯一的空餐廳有吸引力。但至少它在總負債方面表現出色,這是值得鼓勵的。總的來說,我們認爲可以公正地說,SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司有足夠的負債,從資產負債表上存在一些真正的風險存在。如果一切順利,這可能會得到回報,但債務的不利影響是永久性損失的更大風險。當分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點,但不是所有的投資風險都源自資產負債表。例如,我們已經確定了SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司的4個警告信號(其中2個重要),您應該加以注意。

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

說到底,有時更容易關注那些甚至不需要債務的公司。讀者可以免費查看零淨債務增長股票列表,立即獲得。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或者發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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