Bank of America Analyst Highlights Fed Stress Test Opacity, Varying Bank Impacts: 'Goldman Sachs Worst Hit, Huntington Best'
Bank of America Analyst Highlights Fed Stress Test Opacity, Varying Bank Impacts: 'Goldman Sachs Worst Hit, Huntington Best'
The latest Federal Reserve stress test results have highlighted "the inherent opacity" of the Fed evaluation process, according to Bank of America analyst Ebrahim H. Poonawala.
根據美國銀行業的分析師Ebrahim H. Poonawala稱，最新的聯邦儲備壓力測試結果凸顯了“聯儲評估過程的內在不透明性”。
The tests, which assess the resilience of banks under severe economic scenarios, revealed a wide range of impacts on minimum capital requirements. Overall, they demonstrated that the institutions have sufficient buffers to weather the storm, albeit with higher-than-expected losses.
這些測試評估了經濟困境下銀行的韌性，揭示了對最低資本要求的廣泛影響。總體來說，他們證明了這些機構有足夠的緩衝來經受住風暴，儘管有更高於預期的損失。
Bank Of America's Key Insights From the Stress Test Results
美國銀行從壓力測試結果中獲得的主要洞察
'Goldman Sachs Worst Hit': Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) experienced the largest year-over-year increase in its stress capital buffer (SCB), rising by 100 basis points (bps), which could poses a negative impact on return on equity (ROE) and slower share buybacks in the latter half of 2024, according to Bank of America. Poonawala maintains a Buy rating on Goldman Sachs, confident in the stock's long-term prospects.
根據美國銀行，在壓力緩衝區（SCB）方面，高盛（紐交所：GS）經歷了最大的年度增長，上升了100個點子（bps），這可能會對ROE產生負面影響，並減緩2024年下半年的股票回購。Poonawala對高盛股票的長期前景持有買入評級。
Wells Fargo Well-Positioned: Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC) "is well positioned to handle its 90bps SCB increase. We don't expect the drag from the higher SCB to last," Poonawala stated. Bank of America anticipates Wells Fargo to achieve a 14-15% return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) by 2026, assuming the CET1 ratio remains above 11%.
惠爾斯法哥（紐交所：WFC）“已做好應對90個點子的SCB增長的準備。我們不希望更高的SCB拖累業績”，Poonawala表示。美國銀行預計惠爾斯法哥將在2026年實現14-15％的有形股本ROE，假設CET1比率保持在11％以上。
Citigroup Should Positively React: Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) stands out with a 30bps decline in its SCB, potentially freeing up $3 billion for share buybacks. According to Bank of America, this positive development could enhance operating leverage and investor confidence in achieving its 11-12% ROTCE target.
花旗集團（紐交所：C）的SCB下降了30個點子，可能爲股票回購釋放了30億美元。據美國銀行稱，這一積極發展可能會增強經營槓桿和投資者信心，以實現其11-12％的ROE目標。
'Huntington Best Hit' Among Regional Banks: Banks like Huntington (NYSE:HBAN) saw a significant 70bps decline in SCB, suggesting a favorable outlook for resuming share buybacks. Conversely, Citizens Financial Group (NYSE:CFG) experienced a 60bps increase, the highest among regional banks, which might pressure its shares. M&T Bank (NYSE:MTB) and Truist Financial (NYSE:TFC) also showed positive outcomes, with excess capital paving the way for potential buybacks.
像亨廷頓（紐交所：HBAN）這樣的銀行SCB下降了70個點子，這表明恢復股票回購的前景看好。相反，市民金融集團（紐交所：CFG）的SCB上漲了60個點子，是區域銀行中最高的，這可能會對其股價施加壓力。 M＆T銀行（紐交所：MTB）和Truist Financial（紐交所：TFC）也呈現出積極的結果，超額資本爲潛在的回購鋪平了道路。
Citizens Financial Group (NYSE:CFG) shares may face pressure due to the 60bps year-over-year increase in SCB, the highest among regional banks. Conversely, KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) shares could see some relief, alleviating concerns about dividend sustainability.
市民金融集團（紐交所：CFG）的股票可能會面臨壓力，因爲其SCB年增長60個點子，是區域銀行中最高的。相反，KeyCorp（紐交所：KEY）的股票可能會獲得一些緩解，消除有關股息可持續性的擔憂。
Market Reactions: Regionals Outperform Large Banks
市場反應：區域銀行Outperform大型銀行
U.S. bank shares dipped slightly following the stress test results, with the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLF) and the Invesco KBW Bank ETF (NYSE:KBWB) each down 0.4%.
美國銀行ETF（NYSE：XLF）和Invesco KBW銀行ETF（NYSE：KBWB）的銀行股輕微下跌0.4％。
In contrast, regional banks outperformed their larger peers, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking (NYSE:KRE) gaining 0.4%.
相反，區域銀行的表現超過了大型同行，SPDR S＆P區域銀行（NYSE：KRE）獲得了0.4％的升值。
Among large institutions, Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE:COF) and Goldman Sachs were the worst performers, both down 2.1%.
在大型機構中，Capital One Financial Corp.（紐交所：COF）和高盛是最差的表現者，兩者均下跌2.1％。
Within regionals, First Foundation Inc. (NYSE:FFWM) and Dime Community Bancshares Inc. (NYSE:DCOM), outperformed, up 4.9% and 3.6% respectively.
在區域中，First Foundation Inc.（紐交所：FFWM）和Dime Community Bancshares Inc.（紐交所：DCOM）表現優異，分別上漲了4.9％和3.6％。
- GDP Growth Upwardly Revised In Q1 But Consumer Spending Weakens, Continuing Jobless Claims Hit Nearly 3-Year Highs: Thursday's Economic Digest
- Q1創業板增長修正向上，但消費疲軟，持續失業救濟索賠達近三年高點：週四經濟摘要
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
圖像由Midjourney通過人工智能創建。