While Shareholders of First Merchants (NASDAQ:FRME) Are in the Red Over the Last Three Years, Underlying Earnings Have Actually Grown
While Shareholders of First Merchants (NASDAQ:FRME) Are in the Red Over the Last Three Years, Underlying Earnings Have Actually Grown
As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. We regret to report that long term First Merchants Corporation (NASDAQ:FRME) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 19% in three years, versus a market return of about 18%. But it's up 5.5% in the last week.
作爲投資者,值得努力確保您的整個投資組合擊敗市場平均水平。但是,如果您嘗試自己挑選股票,則有可能返回低於市場。遺憾的是,長揸第一招商股份(納斯達克代碼:FRME)的股東們有過這種經歷,股價在三年內下跌了19%,而市場回報率約爲18%。但是,最近一週上漲了5.5%。
The recent uptick of 5.5% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.
最近的5.5%上漲可能是事情將要發生的積極跡象,因此讓我們看一下歷史基本面。
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
儘管一些人繼續教授有效市場假說,但已經證明市場是過度反應的動態系統,並且投資者並不總是理性的。通過比較每股收益(EPS)和股價的變化情況,我們可以了解投資者對公司的態度如何隨着時間變化而變化。
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, First Merchants actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 4.9% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
在不幸的三年股價下跌期間,第一招商股份的每股收益(EPS)每年實際上提高了4.9%。這是一個相當困惑的現象,並表明股價可能有一些短期支撐。或者,過去的增長預期可能不合理。
After considering the numbers, we'd posit that the the market had higher expectations of EPS growth, three years back. However, taking a look at other business metrics might shed a bit more light on the share price action.
考慮到數字後,我們認爲市場三年前對EPS增長的預期更高。但是,查看其他業務指標可能會對股價行動提供更多的見解。
We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. It's good to see that First Merchants has increased its revenue over the last three years. If the company can keep growing revenue, there may be an opportunity for investors. You might have to dig deeper to understand the recent share price weakness.
我們注意到分紅似乎足夠健康,因此這可能不能解釋股價下跌。很高興看到第一招商在過去三年中增加了營業收入。如果公司能繼續增長收入,投資者可能會有機會。您可能需要更深入地了解最近股價下跌的原因。
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
以下圖像顯示了公司的營業收入和盈利(隨時間變化)(單擊以查看準確的數字)。
![earnings-and-revenue-growth](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240629/0-e5df309c85cf61ea0ece9410e809f9bc-0-0a5fe51353aec0d06345fc7f95bb4e7e.png/big)
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
我們很高興地報告,CEO的報酬比同樣資本化的公司的大多數CEO都要適中。但是,雖然CEO報酬值得檢查,但真正重要的問題是公司是否能夠繼續增加收益。因此,我們建議查看此免費報告,顯示共識預測。
What About Dividends?
那麼分紅怎麼樣呢?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of First Merchants, it has a TSR of -9.7% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
考慮到任何給定股票的總股東回報和股價回報非常重要。而股價回報僅反映了股價的變化,TSR包括股息(假設它們已被再投資)的價值以及任何折價的資本籌集或分拆的利益。可以說,TSR提供了更全面的股票收益情況。在第一招商的情況下,它的TSR在過去3年中爲-9.7%。這超過了我們之前提到的股價回報。這在很大程度上是由於其股息支付而導致的!
A Different Perspective
不同的觀點
First Merchants shareholders have received returns of 23% over twelve months (even including dividends), which isn't far from the general market return. That gain looks pretty satisfying, and it is even better than the five-year TSR of 0.6% per year. It is possible that management foresight will bring growth well into the future, even if the share price slows down. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for First Merchants you should know about.
第一招商的股東在過去12個月中收回了23%的回報(包括紅利),這與一般市場回報不相上下。這種收益看起來非常令人滿意,並且甚至優於每年0.6%的五年TSR。即使股價放緩,管理前瞻性可能會爲未來帶來增長。以股價長期表現作爲企業績效的代表非常有趣。但是,要真正獲得見解,我們還需要考慮其他信息。例如,要考慮風險。每個公司都有風險,我們已發現第一招商的1個警告標誌,您應該知道。
Of course First Merchants may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
當然,第一招商可能不是最好的股票購買選項。因此,您可能希望查看此增長股票的免費集合。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
請注意,本文所引述的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所上市的股票的市場加權平均回報。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或者發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。