Avangrid (NYSE:AGR) Seems To Be Using A Lot Of Debt
Avangrid (NYSE:AGR) Seems To Be Using A Lot Of Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Avangrid, Inc. (NYSE:AGR) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
霍華德·馬克斯說得好:“與其擔心股價波動,我所擔心的風險是永久性損失……我認識的每個實際投資者都很擔心。” 當您評估一家公司的風險時,在考慮它的資產負債表時是很自然的,因爲債務往往涉及到企業破產。我們可以看到,Avangrid, Inc. (NYSE:AGR)在業務中確實使用了債務。但更重要的問題是,這些債務創造了多少風險?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
債務何時有危險?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
一般情況下,當公司無法輕易償還債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題,無論是通過增資還是通過自有現金流實現。最終,如果公司無法履行法律上的償還債務義務,股東可能會空手而歸。然而,更常見(但仍然痛苦)的情況是,公司以低價募集新的股本資本,從而永久性地稀釋股東的權益。然而,通過替代稀釋,債務可以成爲需要獲得高回報的增長資本的企業的極好工具。在我們評估債務水平時,我們首先考慮現金和債務水平。
What Is Avangrid's Net Debt?
Avangrid的淨負債是什麼?
As you can see below, at the end of March 2024, Avangrid had US$13.0b of debt, up from US$9.95b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
正如您下面所看到的,在2024年3月底,Avangrid的債務總額爲130億美元,高於一年前的99.5億美元。點擊圖片可以查看更多詳細信息。由於其現金幾乎沒有,因此其淨債務大約相同。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240629/0-52c21c46b7c7a4e38bdcd94d8ef25dee-0-712762a42f7bfbfce439ffc9e997071f.png/big)
A Look At Avangrid's Liabilities
放大最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到Avangrid有62.1億美元的負債,到期時間在12個月內,以及180億美元的負債,在12個月後到期。在此同時,該公司有1.52億美元的應收賬款和1.52億美元在12個月內到期的貨幣,以抵銷其負債總額(約22.4億美元)與其現金和短期應收賬款的組合。這種赤字像一個巨人一樣高聳在這家規模爲137億美元的公司之上。因此,我們絕對認爲股東需要密切關注這個問題。畢竟,如果今天Avangrid需要向債權人償還債務,那麼很可能需要進行大規模的再融資。
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Avangrid had liabilities of US$6.21b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$18.0b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$152.0m in cash and US$1.65b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$22.4b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
這個赤字給這家規模爲13.7億美元的公司,打了個暗影,就像一個高聳在凡人之上的巨像。因此,我們絕對認爲股東需要密切關注這個問題。畢竟,如果今天Avangrid需要向債權人償還債務,那麼很可能需要進行大規模的再融資。
This deficit casts a shadow over the US$13.7b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Avangrid would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
2.5倍的信息利潤覆蓋率和5.6倍的淨負債與息稅前利潤比率的高比率,像是一拳擊打我們對Avangrid的信心。這裏的債務負擔相當沉重。好消息是,Avangrid在過去12個月中平穩增長了44%的息稅前利潤。像人類的仁慈之乳一樣,這種增長增加了企業的韌性,使企業更能夠管理債務。當分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是開始的位置。但是,最終企業未來的盈利能力將決定Avangrid是否能夠隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果您關注未來,可以查看此免費報告,顯示分析師的利潤預測。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Service Corporation International的債務是其EBITDA的3.5倍,而其EBIT可覆蓋其利息開支的3.7倍。綜合考慮,雖然我們不希望看到債務水平上升,但我們認爲它可以應對當前的槓桿。好消息是,Service Corporation International在過去12個月中將其EBIT提高了2.9%,從而逐漸降低了其相對於收益的債務水平。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中獲得了有關債務的大部分內容。但是,相對於資產負債表,更重要的是未來收益,這將決定Service Corporation International維持健康資產負債表的能力。如果您關注未來,您可以查看此免費報告,其中有分析師的利潤預測。
Weak interest cover of 2.5 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.6 hit our confidence in Avangrid like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. The good news is that Avangrid grew its EBIT a smooth 44% over the last twelve months. Like the milk of human kindness that sort of growth increases resilience, making the company more capable of managing debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Avangrid can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
但我們最終的考慮也很重要,因爲公司無法用紙上利潤償還債務,它需要冰冷的現金。因此,邏輯的下一步是查看實際自由現金流所匹配的EBIT比例。在過去三年中,Avangrid持續虧損。雖然這可能是爲了增長而支出的結果,但它確實使債務風險更加嚴重。坦率地說,無論是Avangrid的EBIT轉換爲自由現金流,還是它掌握其總負債的記錄,都使我們對其債務水平感到非常不安。但至少它在增長其EBIT方面表現相當不錯,這是令人鼓舞的。我們還應該注意到,像Avangrid這樣的電力公用事業公司通常可以在不產生問題的情況下使用債務。總的來說,我們認爲Avangrid的資產負債表對企業確實構成真正的風險。出於這個原因,我們對該股持謹慎態度,並認爲股東應密切關注其流動性。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表上學到了大部分債務情況。但最終,每個公司都可能存在除資產負債表之外的風險。請注意,Avangrid在我們的投資分析中顯示出了2個警告信號,其中之一令人擔憂。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Avangrid burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
但我們最終的考慮也很重要,因爲公司無法用紙上利潤償還債務,它需要冰冷的現金。因此,邏輯的下一步是查看實際自由現金流所匹配的EBIT比例。在過去三年中,Avangrid燒掉了大量現金。雖然這可能是由於爲增長支出的結果,但它確實使債務風險更加嚴重。
Our View
我們的觀點
To be frank both Avangrid's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that's encouraging. We should also note that Electric Utilities industry companies like Avangrid commonly do use debt without problems. Overall, it seems to us that Avangrid's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Avangrid is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is concerning...
坦率地說,安萬格的EBIT轉換爲自由現金流以及保持總負債控制的歷史記錄,使我們對其債務水平感到不安。但至少它在增長EBIT方面相當不錯,這是令人鼓舞的。我們還應指出,像安萬格這樣的公用股企業通常會使用債務而沒有問題。總的來說,對我們來說,安萬格的資產負債表確實是業務的一大風險。因此,我們對股票持非常謹慎態度,並認爲股東應密切關注其流動性。毫無疑問,我們最能從資產負債表中了解負債的情況。但最終,每家公司都可能存在超出資產負債表之外的風險。請注意,安萬格在我們的投資分析中顯示了兩個警告信號,其中一個令人擔憂...。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有興趣投資能夠在不負債的情況下增長利潤的企業,請查看這份免費列表,其中列出了在資產負債表上擁有淨現金的成長型企業。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或電郵 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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