Prominent Economist Paul Krugman Says 'Inflation Beaten,' Underlines This As Reason For Sticky Pricing Pressure
Prominent Economist Paul Krugman Says 'Inflation Beaten,' Underlines This As Reason For Sticky Pricing Pressure
Paul Krugman, an authority in economics and Noble Prize winner, commented on Friday's inflation data that showed a further easing in pricing pressure, prompting an increase in the odds of rate cuts.
諾貝爾獎獲得者、經濟學權威保羅·克魯格曼在週五的通脹數據評論中指出,價格壓力進一步緩解,增加了降息機會。
Inflation War Won? "Inflation looks beaten," said Krugman in a post on X, formerly Twitter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis' personal income and spending report released on Friday showed that the annual rate of the personal consumption expenditure index (PCEI) came in 2.6%, marking the lowest level since March 2021. The metric is considered the Fed's favorite inflation gauge.
通脹戰爭贏了嗎?克魯格曼在X(即Twitter)的帖子中表示,“通脹看起來被打敗了”。美國經濟分析局週五發佈的個人收入和支出報告顯示,個人消費支出價格指數(PCEI)的年率爲2.6%,創下了自2021年3月以來的最低水平。該指標被認爲是聯儲局最喜歡的通脹衡量標準。
Sharing a chart of the annual rates of PCEI and the core PCEI, Krugman said, "The blip a few months ago looks like start-of-year price resets, and what's left is lagged housing costs."
克魯格曼分享了PCEI和核心PCEI年率的圖表,並說:“幾個月前的價格漲幅似乎是一年初的價格重置,留下的是滯後的住房成本。”
In other news, inflation looks beaten. The blip a few months ago looks like start-of-year price resets, and what's left is lagged housing costs pic.twitter.com/OsBPCPC2vo
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) June 28, 2024
在其他新聞中,通脹看起來被打敗了。幾個月前的價格漲幅似乎是一年初的價格重置,留下的是滯後的住房成本pic.twitter.com/OsBPCPC2vo —— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) June 28, 2024
— 保羅·克魯格曼 (@paulkrugman) 2024年6月28日
Why It's Important: Consumer price inflation rose to a high of 9%+ in the summer of 2022 and has been trending broadly downward. The CPI, which was at 3.1% at the start of this year, jumped slightly to 3.5% in March and fell to 3.4% in April. Krugman attributed the spike seen earlier this year to "start-of-year price resets."
爲什麼重要:消費者價格通脹率在2022年夏季攀升至9%以上,並呈總體下降趨勢。今年年初爲3.1%的消費者價格指數(CPI)在3月上升至3.5%,4月下降至3.4%。克魯格曼將今年早些時候出現的峯值歸因於“年初價格重置”。
One significant factor keeping the CPI inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% threshold is shelter costs. Home prices are not included in inflation calculations because they are considered an investment by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, the CPI does include rents and "owners' equivalent rents," which estimate the amount a homeowner might charge if they rented out their own home.
使CPI通脹率保持在聯儲局2%門檻之上的一個重要因素是住房費用。由於美國勞工統計局認爲房價是一種投資,因此不計入通脹計算。但是,CPI包括租金和“所有者等價租金”,用於估算業主如果將自己的住房出租,可能會收取的租金。
Shelter costs accounts for 30-40% of the CPI.
住房費用佔CPI的30-40%。
The BLS collects data for calculating the CPI every month, but the rent included is the amount negotiated at the start of the lease, which may have been set well before that particular month. Therefore, economists often regard this number as a lagging indicator.
美國勞工統計局每個月都會收集計算CPI所需的數據,但包括在CPI中的租金是在租賃開始時協商的金額,可能在特定月份之前就確定了。因此,經濟學家通常將此數字視爲滯後指標。
The inflation number is particularly important, as the Federal Reserve has maintained the Fed funds rate at a 22-year high. A reduction in interest rates could kickstart growth and have a cyclical effect on the economy.
通脹數字尤爲重要,因爲聯儲局將聯邦基金利率維持在22年來的高位。降低利率可能會啓動增長,並對經濟產生週期性影響。
For the stock market, which is rallying due to a sharp spike in shares of select stocks tied to artificial intelligence technology, a rate cut could mean additional gains. Lowering rates is seen as a positive for interest-rate-sensitive companies, potentially leading to a rise in stock prices and a broadening of the rally.
對於股市來說,由於與人工智能技術相關的某些股票銳漲,降息可能意味着進一步收益。降低利率被視爲利率敏感型公司的利好,並有可能導致股價上漲和漲勢擴大。
That said, inflation truthers such as Peter Schiff have warned that inflationary pressure will reignite in the near- to medium-term.
Peter Schiff等通脹論者認爲通貨膨脹壓力將在短至中期內再次引發。
The iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSE:TIP), an ETF tracking the investment results of an index composed of inflation-protected U.S. Treasury bonds, ended Friday's session down 0.31% at $106.78, according to Benzinga Pro data.
據Benzinga Pro數據顯示,追蹤由防通脹美國國債組成的指數投資成果的iShares TIPS Bond ETF(紐交所:TIP)週五收盤下跌0.31%,報106.78美元。
Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock