Tesla Stares At Another Sales Decline In Q2: Did China Save The Day For The EV Maker?
Tesla Stares At Another Sales Decline In Q2: Did China Save The Day For The EV Maker?
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ shares rose in premarket trading on Monday as it preps to release the all-important second-quarter deliveries.
$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$股份在週一盤前交易上漲，公司正準備發佈重要的第二季度交付數據。
The Elon Musk-led company is widely expected to provide an update on its quarterly sales ahead of the market open on Tuesday. Consensus estimate shared by fund manager Gary Black puts deliveries at 440,000 units for the second quarter. If the number proves accurate, Tesla is all set to report its second straight quarter of year-over-year sales decline. A year ago, the company produced 479,700 cars and sold 466,140 units.
由埃隆·馬斯克領導的公司被廣泛預計將在週二市場開盤前公佈其季度銷售情況。基金經理加里·布萊克分享的共識估計將第二季度的交付量設定爲440,000輛。如果該數字被證實準確，特斯拉即將報告第二個連續的同比銷售下降季度。一年前，該公司生產了479,700輛汽車，銷售了466,140輛。
The whisper number — an unofficial number floating around on the Street — is far less at 420,000 (a 10% drop), Black said.
布萊克表示，流傳在街頭的預測數字要少得多，爲42萬輛（下降10%）。
"There's a decent chance of an upside surprise on Tues, especially if we get another 17.5K weekly registrations out of China," he said in a post on Friday. His optimism is also premised on the last two days of the quarter being over the weekend, which can pull in more deliveries.
他在上週五的發帖中說：“週二有很大的機會出現驚喜，特別是如果我們從中國再獲得另外17,500個每週註冊數字。”他的樂觀也是基於季度的最後兩天是週末，這可能會增加交付量。
In the first quarter, Tesla's deliveries fell 8.5% year-over-year and over 20% sequentially to 386,810 units.
在第一季度，特斯拉的交付量同比下降8.5%，環比下降超過20%，爲386,810輛。
A few sell-side analysts took down their estimates for Tesla over the past two weeks. The revisions are as follows:
過去兩週，一些賣方分析師下調了對特斯拉的估值。以下是修訂情況：
RBC Capital Market's Tom Narayan reduced his estimate from 533,000 units to 410,000 units.
Barclays' Dan Levy brought down his estimate from 444,000 units to 415,000 units.
RBC資本市場的湯姆·納拉揚將估值從533,000輛降至410,000輛。
巴克萊銀行的丹·萊維將估值從444,000輛降至415,000輛。
Tesla typically shares a company-compiled consensus ahead of the official announcement.
特斯拉通常會在正式公告前分享公司編制的共識。
China is a key market for Tesla both from the production and consumption perspectives. The electric-vehicle maker's China sales performance for the first two months of the quarter are as follows:
中國對於特斯拉來說既是生產市場，也是消費市場。這家電動汽車製造商在季度的前兩個月在中國的銷售情況如下：
Made-in-China sales |
Domestic Sales |
Exports |
|
April |
62,167 |
31,421 |
30,746 |
May |
72,573 |
55,215 |
17,358 |
中國製造的銷量 |
當地銷量 |
出口銷量 |
|
四月 |
62,167 |
31,421 |
30,746 |
五月 |
72,573 |
55,215 |
17,358 |
Adding up the weekly insurance registrations data for June, Tesla sold about 41,200 cars in China until June 23.
綜合6月份保險註冊數據，截至6月23日，特斯拉在中國銷售了約41,200輛汽車。
It also remains to be seen whether the company breaks out the Cybertruck numbers.
還有待觀察該公司是否會公佈Cybertruck的銷售數字。
Future Perfect: Notwithstanding the near-term concerns, bullish analyst, including Wedbush's Daniel Ives, are hopeful of the company turning things around. The analyst said in a recent note that China sales may have seen a "mini-rebound" in the second quarter, helping it to report closer to the consensus estimate.
未來之路：儘管存在短期擔憂，包括Wedbush的分析師Daniel Ives在內的看好分析師仍然希望公司能夠扭轉局面。該分析師在最近的一封研究報告中表示，中國的銷售額在第二季度可能已經出現了“小反彈”，有助於將其報告調至更接近共識預期。
The Street may have already discounted a soft second-quarter number and its core focus will be on the second-half unit recovery, price stabilization, China growth and the upcoming Aug. 8 Robotaxi Day, he said.
華爾街可能已經預計到了軟弱的二季度業績，其核心焦點將在下半年的產量恢復、價格穩定、中國增長和即將到來的8月8日的機器人出租車發佈會上。他說。
Analysts have come to recognize the reality that Tesla is not merely an EV company. "We continue to believe that Tesla is more of an AI and robotics play than a traditional car company," Ives said.
分析師已經認識到特斯拉不僅僅是一家電動汽車公司。 Ives稱：“我們仍然相信特斯拉更像是一家人工智能和機器人公司，而不是一家傳統汽車公司。”
Ives has an Outperform rating and $275 price target for Tesla shares.
Ives爲特斯拉股票設定了跑贏大盤的評級和275美元的價格目標。