Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares are trading higher after Needham analyst Laura Martin maintained a Buy rating and a $220 price target. The stock price gained after the re-rating.
Martin summarized recent channel checks related to Apple. Insights from several ex-employees of Apple are summarized first, followed by insights from a key competitor.
The most important valuation-related takeaways from Martin's conversations included the fact that the smartphone replacement cycle is now closer to 36-40 months, up from about 24-30 months pre-COVID.
Some noted that Apple would raise prices on high-end smartphones and use that excess pricing to subsidize lower-cost iPhones to attract new consumers into the Apple ecosystem.
This is because high-end smartphone customers are typically less price-sensitive, and Apple needs to reach a new base of consumers to grow its installed base.
The smartphone market in the U.S. is saturated, and competition is ruthless, Martin flagged.
The global smartphone market saw a 12% decline in 2023, with Germany reporting a 17% decline, the U.K. a 14% decline, and the U.S. market an 11-12% decline.
Emerging markets like India are still reporting growth, owing to lower smartphone penetration.
The smartphone renewal cycle has extended from 24-26 months to 36 months due to pressure on consumer spending post-COVID smartphone market saturation.
This trend is especially evident in the U.S., where everyone owns at least one smartphone, the analyst picked up from the conversation.
Martin noted that the percentage of devices sold through Apple stores and Apple.com has increased over the past seven years.
The first-party channel has become more important, especially for Mac and iPad sales. Outside its owned stores, Apple's consumer retail channel strategy in the U.S. has become increasingly concentrated in a handful of partners.
Apple has dramatically lowered its dependence on other channels.
Martin noted that by reducing the number of retail channels it uses, APPL can use this "rarity" value and market power to dictate better terms with the distribution channels it keeps.
Martin projected fiscal 2024 revenue and EPS of $387.10 billion and $6.62.
Price Action: AAPL shares traded higher by 2.99% at $216.90 at the last check Monday.
Photo courtesy of Apple
Needham分析師Laura Martin維持買入評級和220美元的價格目標後，蘋果公司（納斯達克：AAPL）股價上漲。重新評級後，股價上漲。
Martin總結了與蘋果有關的最近的渠道檢查。首先概括了幾位前蘋果員工的見解，隨後是一位關鍵競爭對手的見解。
Martin從對話中得出的與估值相關的最重要的結論包括，智能手機更換週期現在接近36-40個月，比COVID前的24-30個月長。
一些人指出，蘋果將在高端智能手機上漲價，並利用這種過剩的價格來補貼低成本的iPhone，以吸引新的消費者進入蘋果生態系統。這是因爲高端智能手機的消費者通常不太注重價格，而蘋果需要吸引新的消費者群體來增加其安裝基數。
這是因爲高端智能手機的消費者通常不太注重價格，而蘋果需要吸引新的消費者群體來增加其生態系統安裝基數。
馬丁指出，美國的智能手機市場已經飽和，競爭異常激烈。
全球智能手機市場在2023年下降了12%，德國報告下降了17% ，英國下降了14%，美國市場下降了11-12%。
由於智能手機滲透率較低，印度等新興市場仍在報告增長。
由於COVID疫情後智能手機市場的飽和度，智能手機換新週期已從24-26個月延長到36個月。
分析師從談話中了解到，這種趨勢在美國特別明顯，那裏的每個人都擁有至少一部智能手機。
馬丁指出，在過去的七年中，通過Apple店和Apple.com銷售的設備的比例已經增加。一手渠道變得越來越重要，特別是對於Mac和iPad的銷售。在其擁有的商店之外，蘋果在美國的消費者零售渠道策略變得越來越集中在少數合作伙伴中。
Apple大幅降低了對其他渠道的依賴。
馬丁指出，通過減少它使用的零售渠道的數量，蘋果可以利用這種“稀缺”價值和市場影響力來與它保持的分銷渠道協商更好的條款。
Martin預計2024財年的營業收入爲3871億美元，每股收益爲6.62美元。
AAPL股票在分析師發佈此消息後，上漲2.99%，上漲了2.99美元，報收216.90美元。
價格行情：蘋果股票週一最新交易價爲216.90美元，上漲2.99%。
圖片提供：蘋果
