The Market Generally Performs Better In Early July Than Any Other Part Of The Year
The Market Generally Performs Better In Early July Than Any Other Part Of The Year
Americans spend the first half of July enjoying the July 4th holiday, vacations and spending time with family. While the dog days of July might not be amiable to those seeking cooler temperatures, they are historically kind to the stock market.
美國人在7月的前半段享受七月四日假期、度假和與家人共度時光。雖然7月的熱浪可能不適合那些尋求更涼爽氣溫的人，但它們在歷史上對股市非常友好。
The Data: A post on X relayed data from Bank of America.
數據：關於X的一篇帖子轉發了美國銀行的數據。
The first 10 trading days of July have seasonally been the strongest period for the S&P 500 since 1928.
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) June 30, 2024
The S&P 500 gained 1.5% on average in the first 10 trading days of July, rising 69% of the time. pic.twitter.com/miQYAsj9rc
自1928年以來，7月的前10個交易日季節性地成爲標普500指數最強勁的時期。
—Mike Zaccardi，CFA，CMT（@MikeZaccardi）2024年6月30日
在七月的前十個交易日中，標普500指數平均上漲了1.5％，有69％的時間上漲。pic.twitter.com/miQYAsj9rc
The S&P 500 has returned 1.5% on average during the first half of July since 1928. If that 1.5% was sustained over the entire year, the market would return 36% annually.
自1928年以來，7月的前半段標普500指數平均回報率爲1.5%。如果這1.5%的回報率在整個年度內持續下去，市場將實現年回報率36%。
Additionally, the S&P 500 has historically risen 69% of the time during this period.
此期間標普500指數的歷史平均升幅爲69%。
The second-most successful period for the S&P 500 is the second half of December.
標普500指數的第二成功板塊是12月的後半段。
Past Five Years: The market has risen in the first half of July in each of the past five years, according to data from Yahoo Finance.
過去五年：根據雅虎財經的數據，過去五年中7月的前半段市場都有上漲。
- In 2019, the S&P 500 had a 1.37% return.
- In 2020, the S&P 500 saw a 3.97% appreciation.
- In 2021, the S&P 500 returned 1.37%.
- In 2022, the S&P 500 saw a 2.28% gain.
- In 2023, the S&P 500 rose 1.79%.
- 2019年，標普500指數上漲了1.37%。
- 2020年，標普500指數上漲了3.97%。
- 2021年，標普500指數上漲了1.37%。
- 2022年，標普500指數上漲了2.28%。
- 2023年，標普500指數上漲了1.79%。
On average, the S&P returned 2.15% in the first 10 trading days of July.
在7月的前10個交易日中，標普500指數的平均回報率爲2.15%。
Why it Matters: The U.S. market has recently rallied toward all-time highs, aided by gains from large technology stocks. While many remain bullish on the market's future performance, others have cited "warning flags" that point to a potential market pullback.
重要性：伴隨着科技板塊的大漲，美國市場近期已經上漲至創紀錄的高位。雖然許多人看好市場未來的表現，但其他人也指出了指向潛在市場回調的“警告標誌”。
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Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock