Kenanga Investment Bank (Kenanga), in its Oil & Gas sector update on July 2, 2024 (Tuesday), affirmed an OVERWEIGHT rating, citing favourable conditions in mid-stream and upstream opportunities.
The bank maintained Brent crude price forecasts at USD84/bbl for CY24 and USD79/bbl for CY25, aligning closely with Bloomberg's median projections. Expectations point to a stabilising Brent price trajectory, with a slight weakening in 3QCY24 and a strengthening in 4QCY24, driven by seasonal impacts on Western economies.
Kenanga anticipates a phased discontinuation of OPEC+ production cuts by late CY24, followed by increased production in CY25, bolstering the global crude oil market balance. Notably, non-OPEC+ countries such as the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana are set to drive production growth in 2024 amid ample spare capacity from OPEC.
Petronas ramps up domestic capex. Petronas allocated RM5.5b for domestic projects in 1QCY24, marking a 20% YoY increase and reflecting 52% of its total capex. This focus on upstream investments and cleaner energy solutions is expected to benefit Malaysian upstream service providers significantly.
Local upstream services flourish. Malaysian companies servicing upstream sectors report heightened demand, particularly in vessel charter rates for accommodation work boats (AWB) and anchor handling tug supply (AHTS) vessels. Short-term AWB rates soared to RM150,000/day, driven by robust brownfield maintenance activities.
OSV market dynamics. Despite global OSV supply constraints, local markets remain under-supplied relative to demand from Petronas and other oil majors. The sector anticipates steady rates due to limited new build activity among Malaysian players.
Tank terminals poised for growth. Kenanga forecasts strong demand for tank terminal storage, driven by oil futures contango and increased geopolitical risks. Companies like DIALOG are well-positioned to benefit, particularly with ongoing expansions in Pengerang, Johor.
Investment outlook. Kenanga favours DIALOG (OP; TP: RM3.18), PETDAG (OP; TP: RM23.70), and VELESTO (OP; TP: RM0.34) as top sector picks, given their strategic positioning amidst anticipated sectoral growth.
Kenanga's bullish outlook on Malaysia's Oil & Gas sector underscores potential opportunities in upstream services, midstream expansions, and strategic investments in tank terminal infrastructure.
Kenanga Investment Bank (Kenanga)在2024年7月2日(週二)更新的石油與天然氣行業報告中確認了增持評級，理由是中游和上游機會條件有利。
該銀行將布倫特原油價格預測維持在24財年84美元/桶和25財年79美元/桶，與彭博社的中位數預測非常吻合。預期布倫特原油價格走勢將趨於穩定，在對西方經濟體的季節性影響的推動下，3QCY24 略有疲軟，4QCY24 走強。
Kenanga預計，歐佩克+將在24財年末分階段停止減產，隨後在25財年增加產量，從而鞏固全球原油市場平衡。值得注意的是，在歐佩克充足的剩餘產能下，美國、加拿大、巴西和圭亞那等非歐佩克+國家將在2024年推動產量增長。
國油增加了國內資本支出。國油在 1QCY24 中爲國內項目撥款55億令吉，同比增長20％，佔其總資本支出的52％。這種對上游投資和清潔能源解決方案的關注預計將使馬來西亞的上游服務提供商受益匪淺。
本地上游服務蓬勃發展。爲上游行業提供服務的馬來西亞公司報告說，需求增加，特別是在住宿工作船（AWB）和錨處理拖船供應（AHTS）的租船費率方面。在穩健的棕地維護活動的推動下，短期空運單利率飆升至每天15萬令吉。
OSV 市場動態。儘管全球OSV供應受到限制，但相對於國油和其他石油巨頭的需求，當地市場仍然供應不足。由於馬來西亞參與者的新建活動有限，該行業預計利率將保持穩定。
儲罐碼頭有望增長。Kenanga預測，在石油期貨交易和地緣政治風險增加的推動下，對儲罐碼頭儲存的需求將強勁。像DIALOG這樣的公司完全有能力從中受益，尤其是在柔佛州彭格朗的持續擴張中。
投資展望。鑑於DIALOG（OP；TP：3.18令吉）、PETDAG（OP：23.70令吉）和VELESTO（OP；TP：0.34令吉）在預期的行業增長中的戰略定位，Kenanga青睞這些行業的首選。
Kenanga對馬來西亞石油和天然氣行業的看漲前景凸顯了上游服務、中游擴張和儲罐碼頭基礎設施戰略投資方面的潛在機遇。
