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Is Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd (SHSE:600839) A Risky Investment?

Is Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd (SHSE:600839) A Risky Investment?

四川長虹電器股份有限公司(SHSE:600839)是一項冒險的投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  07/03 18:04

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Sichuan Changhong Electric Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600839) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

作爲投資者,有人認爲波動性而不是債務是考慮風險的最佳方式,但禾倫·巴菲特曾經說過“波動性遠非風險的代名詞”。當你考察一個公司時,自然要考慮其資產負債表,因爲當企業崩潰時通常涉及到債務。我們可以看到四川長虹電器股份有限公司(SHSE:600839)確實在業務中使用債務。但是債務是不是股東的擔憂?

When Is Debt A Problem?

什麼時候負債才是一個問題?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

一般來說,只有當公司不能輕易地通過籌集資本或自有現金流來償還債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題。資本主義的本質是“創造性破壞”過程,其中失敗的企業被其銀行家無情地清算。但更普遍的(但仍然痛苦的)情況是,公司必須以較低的價格籌集新的股本資本,從而永久稀釋股東。話雖如此,最常見的情況是公司合理地管理其債務,從而使其受益。考慮公司債務水平的第一步是同時考慮其現金和債務。

What Is Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd's Net Debt?

四川長虹電器股份有限公司的淨債務是多少?

As you can see below, at the end of March 2024, Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd had CN¥19.7b of debt, up from CN¥18.5b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. But it also has CN¥25.2b in cash to offset that, meaning it has CN¥5.46b net cash.

正如下圖所示,在2024年3月底,四川長虹電器股份有限公司的債務總額爲197億元人民幣,而去年同期爲185億元人民幣。點擊圖像查看更多細節。但它還有252億元人民幣的現金來抵消這一點,這意味着它有54.6億元淨現金。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SHSE:600839 Debt to Equity History July 3rd 2024
SHSE:600839股票的債務權益歷史記錄截至2024年7月3日

A Look At Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd's Liabilities

四川長虹電器股份有限公司負債情況分析

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd had liabilities of CN¥65.4b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥5.10b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥25.2b and CN¥20.2b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥25.2b.

從最新的資產負債表數據中可以看出,四川長虹電器股份有限公司有654億元的到期負債,並有51億元的超過12個月的負債。另一方面,它有252億元和202億元的應收賬款到期在一年內。因此,它的負債超過了其現金和(短期)應收賬款的總和252億元。

Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of CN¥20.7b, we think shareholders really should watch Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price. Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load, even if it does have very significant liabilities, in total.

鑑於這一逆差實際上高於公司的市值207億元人民幣,我們認爲股東們確實應該像父母看着孩子第一次騎自行車時那樣密切關注四川長虹電器股份有限公司的債務水平。假設以當前股價籌集資本,將需要進行極度重大的稀釋。四川長虹電器股份有限公司擁有淨現金,因此,即使它在總體上具有非常重要的負債,只要合理地管理其債務,就不會承擔沉重的債務負擔。

Also good is that Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd grew its EBIT at 15% over the last year, further increasing its ability to manage debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

此外,四川長虹電器股份有限公司過去一年EBIt增長了15%,這也進一步增加了其管理債務的能力。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是,對於資產負債表的未來狀況,是由四川長虹電器股份有限公司的收益情況所影響的。因此,在考慮債務時,肯定值得看一下收益趨勢。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the last three years, Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.

最後,一家公司只能用冷酷的現金而不是會計利潤來償還債務。四川長虹電器股份有限公司可能在資產負債表上具有淨現金,但看看企業將其利潤(利息和稅前利潤)轉化爲自由現金流的情況也很有趣,因爲這將影響其管理債務的需求和能力。在過去三年中,四川長虹電器股份有限公司的自由現金流比EBIt還多。這種強勁的現金轉換讓我們感到非常興奮,就像Daft Punk音樂會上的觀衆一樣興奮。

Summing Up

總之

While Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd does have more liabilities than liquid assets, it also has net cash of CN¥5.46b. The cherry on top was that in converted 166% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in CN¥1.4b. So we don't have any problem with Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd's use of debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd that you should be aware of before investing here.

雖然四川長虹電器有更多的負債而非流動資產,但它也有54.6億元的淨現金流。最令人高興的是,它將166%的EBIt轉化爲自由現金流,帶來了14億元。因此,我們對四川長虹電器使用債務沒有任何問題。當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是需要關注的地方。然而,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。例如,我們發現了2個對於在這裏投資之前需要了解的四川長虹電器的預警標誌。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果您有興趣投資能夠在不負債的情況下增長利潤的企業,請查看這份免費列表,其中列出了在資產負債表上擁有淨現金的成長型企業。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或電郵 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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