Estimating The Fair Value Of Aspen Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:AZPN)
Estimating The Fair Value Of Aspen Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:AZPN)
Key Insights
主要見解
- The projected fair value for Aspen Technology is US$229 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Aspen Technology's US$200 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
- The US$220 analyst price target for AZPN is 3.8% less than our estimate of fair value
- 艾斯本科技的預期公允價值爲229美元,基於兩階段自由現金流赴權益。
- 艾斯本科技的股價爲200美元,表明其交易水平類似於公允價值估計。
- 塔吉特對艾斯本科技的股價目標爲220美元,比我們估算的公允價值低3.8%。
Does the July share price for Aspen Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:AZPN) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
7月份納斯達克:AZPN的股價是否反映了其真正價值?今天,我們將通過預期未來現金流並將其貼現到其現值來估算該股票的內在價值。我們將在這個場合使用貼現現金流量模型。不管你信不信,這並不難理解,就像從我們的例子中看到的那樣!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
公司的估值可以用很多種方式來估算,因此我們指出DCF並不適用於每種情況。任何對內在價值想要了解更多的人都應該閱讀簡單華爾街分析模型的報告。
Is Aspen Technology Fairly Valued?
艾斯本科技是否公允價值?
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我們將採用兩階段DCF模型,正如其名稱所示,該模型考慮了兩個增長階段。第一階段通常是一個更高的增長期,隨着進入第二個“穩定期”,增長率趨於穩定。在第一階段,我們需要估計未來十年業務的現金流。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師的估計,但當這些估計不可用時,我們根據最後一個估計值或報告值的自由現金流(FCF)進行推斷。我們假設自由現金流收縮的公司將減緩其收縮速度,並且自由現金流增長的公司在此期間內將看到其增長率放緩。我們這樣做是爲了反映增長傾向於在早期年份比在後期年份放緩。
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
DCF的核心理念是未來的一美元價值不如現在的一美元,因此我們將這些未來現金流折現至今天的價值:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
10年自由現金流 (FCF) 預估值
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$399.4m | US$472.2m | US$374.9m | US$505.0m | US$646.0m | US$709.6m | US$763.5m | US$809.6m | US$849.6m | US$885.0m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x7 | Analyst x5 | Analyst x3 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 9.84% | Est @ 7.60% | Est @ 6.04% | Est @ 4.94% | Est @ 4.17% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.9% | US$374 | US$413 | US$307 | US$386 | US$462 | US$475 | US$478 | US$474 | US$465 | US$453 |
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
槓桿自由現金流 ($, 百萬) | 3.994億美元 | 4.722億美元 | 3.749億美元 | 5.05億美元 | 6.46億美元 | 7.096億美元 | 7.64億美元 | 8.096億美元 | 8.496億美元 | 8.85億美元 |
創業板增長率預測來源 | 共計7位分析師。 | 分析師 x5 | 分析師x3 | 分析師x1 | 分析師x1 | 估值爲9.84% | 以7.60%的估值 | 估計值 @ 6.04% | 估值增長率:4.94% | 4.17%以下估算 |
現值($,百萬)以6.9%的折現率折現 | 374美元 | 413 | 美元307 | 美元386 | 462美元 | 475美元 | 478美元 | 474美元 | 美元465 | 453億美元 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$4.3b
("Est" = FCF增長率估計由Simply Wall St)
10年現金流的現值(PVCF)= 美元4.3億
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.9%.
現在,我們需要計算終端價值。終端價值考慮的是這十年後所有未來現金流。使用戈登增長公式計算終端價值,未來年增長率等於10年政府債券收益率的5年平均水平2.4%。我們以6.9%的股本成本貼現終端現金流至今天的價值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$885m× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (6.9%– 2.4%) = US$20b
終止價值(TV)= FCF2034×(1+2.4%)/(r–g)=8.85億美元×(1+2.4%)/(6.9%–2.4%)=200億美元
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$20b÷ ( 1 + 6.9%)10= US$10b
終止價值現值(PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10=200億美元/(1+6.9%)10=美元10億
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$14b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$200, the company appears about fair value at a 13% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
總價值是未來十年現金流和貼現末期價值的總和。在這種情況下,總權益價值爲140億美元。要獲得每股內在價值,我們將其除以總已發行股數。相對於當前的股價200美元,該公司似乎處於公平價值的水平,其股價約比股價交易水平低13%。估值是不精確的工具,就像望遠鏡一樣 - 轉動幾度就會進入不同的星系。請記住這一點。
![dcf](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240704/0-dc96ef7c25c451b89753949ec9519781-0-d51ef91069860e8cfa1dd3cadc65c695.png/big)
Important Assumptions
重要假設
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Aspen Technology as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.989. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
上述計算非常依賴於兩個假設。第一個是折現率,另一個是現金流。投資的一部分是對公司未來業績的自己評估,所以請自己進行計算並檢查自己的假設。貼現現金流量模型還沒有考慮到一個行業的可能週期性,或者一家公司未來的資本需求,因此它不能給出公司潛在業績的完整畫面。考慮到我們正在將艾斯本科技作爲潛在股東,因此將使用權益成本作爲折現率,而不是成本資本(或加權平均成本資本,WACC)來考慮貼現現金流量。在這個計算中,我們使用了6.9%,它基於一個負債負擔的β爲0.989。Beta是一個股票波動性的度量,相對於整個市場而言。我們從全球可比的公司行業平均Beta中獲得了我們的Beta,它在0.8和2.0之間有一個強制性的限制,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。
Next Steps:
下一步:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Aspen Technology, there are three relevant items you should look at:
儘管很重要,但貼現現金流量的計算不應該是您研究公司時唯一需要考慮的度量標準。貼現現金流量模型並不是投資估值的全部和終極目標,而應該被視爲“這隻股票是低估還是高估所需要的假設的指南”。例如,如果終期增長率略有調整,它可以極大地改變總體結果。對於艾斯本科技而言,有三個相關的因素值得您注意:
- Financial Health: Does AZPN have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does AZPN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- 財務健康狀況:AZPN是否擁有健康的資產負債表?請查看我們免費的資產負債表分析,針對槓桿率和風險等關鍵因素進行六項簡單檢查。
- 未來收益:AZPN的增長率如何與同行及更廣泛的市場相比?與我們免費的分析師增長預期圖表互動,深入研究未來幾年的分析師一致預期數字。
- 其他優秀企業:低負債,高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是構建強大企業基礎的基礎。爲什麼不探索我們交互式的股票列表,其中包括具有堅實業務基礎的其他公司?
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
PS。Simply Wall St 應用程序每天針對納斯達克股票市場上的每隻股票進行現金流折現估值。如果您想找到其他股票的計算,請在此處搜索。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或者發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。