The projected fair value for Cushman & Wakefield is US$13.23 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Cushman & Wakefield's US$10.47 share price signals that it might be 21% undervalued
The US$12.86 analyst price target for CWK is 2.8% less than our estimate of fair value
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Cushman & Wakefield plc (NYSE:CWK) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
The Method
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$211.0m
US$245.0m
US$290.0m
US$324.0m
US$349.4m
US$371.0m
US$389.8m
US$406.3m
US$421.3m
US$435.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ 7.83%
Est @ 6.20%
Est @ 5.05%
Est @ 4.25%
Est @ 3.69%
Est @ 3.30%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 13%
US$187
US$193
US$202
US$200
US$191
US$180
US$168
US$155
US$143
US$131
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$1.7b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 13%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$4.3b÷ ( 1 + 13%)10= US$1.3b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$3.0b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$10.5, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 21% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
NYSE:CWK Discounted Cash Flow July 4th 2024
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Cushman & Wakefield as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.901. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Cushman & Wakefield
Strength
No major strengths identified for CWK.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
Good value based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.
Have CWK insiders been buying lately?
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the American market.
Is CWK well equipped to handle threats?
Next Steps:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Cushman & Wakefield, there are three essential factors you should further examine:
Risks: You should be aware of the 3 warning signs for Cushman & Wakefield (1 shouldn't be ignored!) we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
Future Earnings: How does CWK's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
