Shell's Q2 2024 Outlook: Stable Production and Earnings Across Segments
Shell's Q2 2024 Outlook: Stable Production and Earnings Across Segments
The following is an update to the second quarter 2024 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the second quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual second quarter 2024 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on August 1, 2024. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items.
以下是對2024年第二季度展望的更新，並概述了我們目前對第二季度的預期。展望可能與2024年第二季度的實際業績有所不同，並有待定於2024年8月1日公佈的業績的最終確定。除非另有說明，否則所有Outlook語句都不包括已識別的項目。
See appendix for previous quarter historical data.
有關上一季度的歷史數據，請參見附錄。
Integrated Gas
集成氣體
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Production (kboe/d) | 940 - 980 | |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 6.8 - 7.2 | |
| Underlying opex | 1.0 - 1.2 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 1.2 - 1.6 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.8 - 1.1 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| Trading & Optimisation results are expected to be in line with Q2'23, but lower compared to Q1'24 due to seasonality. | ||
| 數十億美元 | 24 年第二季度展望 | 評論 |
| 調整後的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤 | ||
| 產量 (kboe/d) | 940-980 | |
| 液化天然氣液化量 (MT) | 6.8-7.2 | |
| 基礎運營支出 | 1.0-1.2 | |
| 調整後收益： | ||
| 稅前折舊 | 1.2-1.6 | |
| 稅費 | 0.8-1.1 | |
| 其他注意事項： | ||
| 交易和優化業績預計將與23年第二季度持平，但由於季節性，與24年第一季度相比有所下降。 | ||
Upstream
上游
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,720 - 1,820 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.1 - 2.7 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 2.5 - 2.9 | |
| Taxation charge | 1.8 - 2.6 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| The share of profit / (loss) of joint ventures and associates in Q2'24 is expected to be ~$0.2 billion. Q2'24 exploration well write-offs are expected to be ~$0.2 billion. | ||
| 數十億美元 | 24 年第二季度展望 | 評論 |
| 調整後的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤 | ||
| 產量 (kboe/d) | 1,720-1,820 | |
| 基礎運營支出 | 2.1-2.7 | |
| 調整後收益： | ||
| 稅前折舊 | 2.5-2.9 | |
| 稅費 | 1.8-2.6 | |
| 其他注意事項： | ||
| 預計24年第二季度合資企業和關聯公司的利潤/（虧損）份額約爲2億美元。預計24年第二季度勘探油井的註銷額約爲2億美元。 | ||
Marketing
市場營銷
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,700 - 3,100 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.5 - 2.9 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.3 - 0.7 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.2 - 0.5 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| Marketing results are expected to be in line with Q1'24. | ||
| 數十億美元 | 24 年第二季度展望 | 評論 |
| 調整後的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤 | ||
| 銷量 (kb/d) | 2,700-3,100 | |
| 基礎運營支出 | 2.5-2.9 | |
| 調整後收益： | ||
| 稅前折舊 | 0.3-0.7 | |
| 稅費 | 0.2-0.5 | |
| 其他注意事項： | ||
| 預計營銷業績將與24年第一季度一致。 | ||
Chemicals & Products
化學品和產品
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Indicative refining margin | $8/bbl | |
| Indicative chemicals margin | $155/tonne | Chemicals sub segment Adjusted Earnings are expected to be close to break-even in Q2'24. |
| Refinery utilisation | 91% - 95% | |
| Chemicals utilisation | 78% - 82% | |
| Underlying opex | 1.9 - 2.3 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.7 - 0.9 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.1 - 0.5 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| Trading & Optimisation is expected to be in line with Q1'24. | ||
| 數十億美元 | 24 年第二季度展望 | 評論 |
| 調整後的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤 | ||
| 指示性煉油利潤率 | 8 美元/桶 | |
| 指示性化學品利潤率 | 155 美元/噸 | 預計化工子板塊調整後收益將在24年第二季度接近盈虧平衡。 |
| 煉油廠利用率 | 91%-95% | |
| 化學品的利用 | 78%-82% | |
| 基礎運營支出 | 1.9-2.3 | |
| 調整後收益： | ||
| 稅前折舊 | 0.7-0.9 | |
| 稅費 | 0.1-0.5 | |
| 其他注意事項： | ||
| 交易與優化預計將與24年第一季度持平。 | ||
Renewables and Energy Solutions
可再生能源和能源解決方案
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.5) - 0.1 |
| 數十億美元 | 24 年第二季度展望 | 評論 |
| 調整後收益 | (0.5)-0.1 |
Corporate
企業
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.7) - (0.5) |
| 數十億美元 | 24 年第二季度展望 | 評論 |
| 調整後收益 | (0.7)-(0.5) |
Shell Group
殼牌集團
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| CFFO: | ||
| Tax paid | 3.1 - 3.9 | |
| Derivative movements | (2) - 2 | Derivative movements and working capital estimations inherently have a broad range of uncertainty. |
| Working capital | (2) - 2 | |
| Other Shell Group Considerations: | ||
| Non-cash post tax impairments of $1.5 - $2 billion are expected, and mainly include the Singapore Chemicals & Products assets ($0.6 - $0.8 billion) as well as Rotterdam HEFA ($0.6 - $1.0 billion), which is reported in the Marketing segment. These items are reported as identified items. | ||
| 數十億美元 | 24 年第二季度展望 | 評論 |
| CFFO： | ||
| 繳納的稅款 | 3.1-3.9 | |
| 衍生運動 | (2)-2 | 衍生品變動和營運資本估算本質上具有廣泛的不確定性。 |
| 營運資金 | (2)-2 | |
| 殼牌集團的其他注意事項： | ||
| 預計非現金稅後減值爲15億至20億美元，主要包括新加坡化學品及產品資產（6億至8億美元）以及營銷板塊報告的鹿特丹HEFA（6億至10億美元）。這些物品被報告爲已識別物品。 | ||
Guidance
指導
The 'Quarterly Databook' contains guidance on Indicative Refining Margin, Indicative Chemicals Margin and full-year price and margin sensitivities (Link).
“季度數據手冊” 包含有關指示性煉油利潤率、指示性化學品利潤率以及全年價格和利潤敏感度的指導（鏈接）。
Consensus
共識
The consensus collection for quarterly Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA is per the reporting segments and CFFO at a Shell group level, managed by Vara Research, is expected to be published on July 25, 2024.
由Vara Research管理的季度調整後收益、調整後息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的共識彙總額預計將於2024年7月25日公佈，按報告細分市場計算，殼牌集團層面的CFFO預計將於2024年7月25日公佈。
Appendix
附錄
Indicative Margins
指示性利潤率
For Integrated Gas Q1'24 realised prices have been restated. There is no impact of this revision on previously
reported segment financials and other key performance indicators.
綜合天然氣公司24年第一季度的已實現價格已重報。此次修訂對以前沒有影響
報告了細分市場的財務狀況和其他關鍵業績指標。
| Integrated Gas Realised Prices | Q1'24 | Q1'24 Restated |
| Liquids ($/bbl) | 72.72 | 67.29 |
| Gas ($/thousand scf) | 8.86 | 7.84 |
| 綜合天然氣已實現價格 | Q1'24 | 24 年第一季度重啓 |
| 液體（美元/桶） | 72.72 | 67.29 |
| 天然氣（美元/千立方英尺） | 8.86 | 7.84 |
| Chemicals & Products | Q1'24 | Q2'24 Updated Outlook |
| Indicative refining margin | $12/bbl | $8/bbl |
| Indicative chemicals margin | $150/tonne | $155/tonne |
| 化學品和產品 | Q1'24 | 24 年第二季度更新的 Outlook |
| 指示性煉油利潤率 | 12 美元/桶 | 8 美元/桶 |
| 指示性化學品利潤率 | 每噸 150 美元 | 155 美元/噸 |
Volume Data
音量數據
| Q1'24 Adjusted | Q2'24 QPR Outlook | Q2'24 Updated Outlook | |
| Integrated Gas | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 992 | 920 - 980 | 940 - 980 |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 7.6 | 6.8 - 7.4 | 6.8 - 7.2 |
| Upstream | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,872 | 1,630 - 1,830 | 1,720 - 1,820 |
| Marketing | |||
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,763 | 2,700 - 3,200 | 2,700 - 3,100 |
| Chemicals & Products | |||
| Refinery utilisation | 91% | 87% - 95% | 91% - 95% |
| Chemicals utilisation | 73% | 72% - 80% | 78% - 82% |
| 24 年第一季度調整後 | 24 年第二季度女王公園巡遊展望 | 24 年第二季度更新的 Outlook | |
| 集成氣體 | |||
| 產量 (kboe/d) | 992 | 920-980 | 940-980 |
| 液化天然氣液化量 (MT) | 7.6 | 6.8-7.4 | 6.8-7.2 |
| 上游 | |||
| 產量 (kboe/d) | 1,872 | 1,630-1,830 | 1,720-1,820 |
| 市場營銷 | |||
| 銷量 (kb/d) | 2763 | 2,700-3,200 | 2,700-3,100 |
| 化學品和產品 | |||
| 煉油廠利用率 | 91% | 87%-95% | 91%-95% |
| 化學品的利用 | 73% | 72%-80% | 78%-82% |
Underlying Opex
基礎運營支出
| $ billions | Q1'24 | Q1'24 Adjusted | Q2'24 Updated Outlook |
| Production and manufacturing expenses | 5.8 | ||
| Selling, distribution and administrative expenses | 3.0 | ||
| Research and development | 0.2 | ||
| Operating Expenses (Opex) | 9.0 | 9.0 | |
| Less: Identified Items | (0.1) | ||
| Underlying Opex | 9.1 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 - 1.2 |
| Upstream | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 - 2.7 |
| Marketing | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 - 2.9 |
| Chemicals & Products | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 - 2.3 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 數十億美元 | Q1'24 | 24 年第一季度調整後 | 24 年第二季度更新的 Outlook |
| 生產和製造費用 | 5.8 | ||
| 銷售、分銷和管理費用 | 3.0 | ||
| 研究和開發 | 0.2 | ||
| 運營費用（運營支出） | 9.0 | 9.0 | |
| 減去：已識別物品 | (0.1) | ||
| 基礎運營支出 | 9.1 | ||
| 其中： | |||
| 綜合氣體 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0-1.2 |
| 上游 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1-2.7 |
| 市場營銷 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5-2.9 |
| 化學品和產品 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9-2.3 |
| 可再生能源和能源解決方案 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
Depreciation, depletion and amortisation
折舊、損耗和攤銷
| $ billions | Q1'24 | Q1'24 Adjusted | Q2'24 Updated Outlook |
| Depreciation, Depletion & Amortisation | 5.9 | 5.9 | |
| Less: Identified Items | 0.2 | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation (as Adjusted) | 5.7 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 - 1.6 |
| Upstream | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 - 2.9 |
| Marketing | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 - 0.7 |
| Chemicals & Products | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 - 0.9 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | — | 0.1 |
| 數十億美元 | Q1'24 | 24 年第一季度調整後 | 24 年第二季度更新的 Outlook |
| 折舊、損耗和攤銷 | 5.9 | 5.9 | |
| 減去：已識別物品 | 0.2 | ||
| 稅前折舊（調整後） | 5.7 | ||
| 其中： | |||
| 綜合氣體 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2-1.6 |
| 上游 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.5-2.9 |
| 市場營銷 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3-0.7 |
| 化學品和產品 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7-0.9 |
| 可再生能源和能源解決方案 | — | 0.1 |
Tax Charge
稅費
| $ billions | Q1'24 | Q1'24 Adjusted | Q2'24 Updated Outlook |
| Taxation Charge | 3.6 | 3.6 | |
| Less: Identified Items and Cost of supplies adjustment | (0.5) | ||
| Taxation Charge (as Adjusted) | 4.1 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 - 1.1 |
| Upstream | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.8 - 2.6 |
| Marketing | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 - 0.5 |
| Chemicals & Products | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 - 0.5 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.1 | — |
| 數十億美元 | Q1'24 | 24 年第一季度調整後 | 24 年第二季度更新的 Outlook |
| 稅費 | 3.6 | 3.6 | |
| 減去：已確定項目和供應成本調整 | (0.5) | ||
| 稅費（調整後） | 4.1 | ||
| 其中： | |||
| 綜合氣體 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8-1.1 |
| 上游 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.8-2.6 |
| 市場營銷 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2-0.5 |
| 化學品和產品 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1-0.5 |
| 可再生能源和能源解決方案 | 0.1 | — |
Adjusted Earnings
調整後收益
The "Adjusted Earnings" measure aims to facilitate a comparative understanding of Shell's financial performance from period to period by removing the effects of oil price changes on inventory carrying amounts and removing the effects of identified items. These items are in some cases driven by external factors and may, either individually or collectively, hinder the comparative understanding of Shell's financial results from period to period. This measure excludes earnings attributable to non-controlling interest. For further details see the 1st Quarter 2024 unaudited results (Link).
“調整後收益” 衡量標準旨在通過消除油價變動對庫存賬面金額的影響並消除已確定項目的影響，促進對殼牌各時期財務業績的比較理解。在某些情況下，這些項目是由外部因素驅動的，無論是個人還是集體，都可能阻礙對殼牌不同時期財務業績的比較理解。該衡量標準不包括歸屬於非控股權益的收益。欲了解更多詳情，請參閱2024年第一季度未經審計的業績（鏈接）。
| $ billions | Q1'24 | Q1'24 Adjusted | Q2'24 Updated Outlook |
| Income/(loss) attributable to Shell plc shareholders | 7.4 | 7.4 | |
| Add: Current cost of supplies adjustment attributable to Shell plc shareholders | (0.3) | ||
| Less: Identified items attributable to Shell plc shareholders | (0.6) | ||
| Adjusted Earnings | 7.7 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.6 | 0.2 | (0.5) - 0.1 |
| Corporate | (0.4) | (0.5) | (0.7) - (0.5) |
| 數十億美元 | Q1'24 | 24 年第一季度調整後 | 24 年第二季度更新的 Outlook |
| 歸屬於殼牌公司股東的收入/（虧損） | 7.4 | 7.4 | |
| 添加：歸屬於殼牌公司股東的當前供應成本調整 | (0.3) | ||
| 減去：歸屬於殼牌公司股東的已確定項目 | (0.6) | ||
| 調整後收益 | 7.7 | ||
| 其中： | |||
| 可再生能源和能源解決方案 | 0.6 | 0.2 | (0.5)-0.1 |
| 企業 | (0.4) | (0.5) | (0.7)-(0.5) |