Mixed Picture For Fed: June Payrolls Rise More Than Expected, Unemployment Rate Ticks Up, Wage Growth Slows
Mixed Picture For Fed: June Payrolls Rise More Than Expected, Unemployment Rate Ticks Up, Wage Growth Slows
The official June labor market report for the United States indicates mixed conditions, showing robust employment growth but a slowdown in wage increases, which may support expectations for upcoming interest rate cuts.
美國6月份的官方勞動力市場報告顯示，情況好壞參半，就業增長強勁，但工資增長放緩，這可能會支持對即將到來的降息的預期。
In June, the U.S. economy added 206,000 new jobs, a reduction from the downwardly revised 218,000 in May, according to data released Friday.
週五公佈的數據顯示，6月，美國經濟增加了20.6萬個新工作崗位，較5月份向下修正的21.8萬個有所減少。
June's Employment Situation: Key Highlights
6月的就業情況：主要亮點
- Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 last month, slowing down by 12,000 from May, but above economist expectations of 189,000, with predictions ranging from 150,000 to 237,000.
- The unemployment rate ticked slightly higher from 4% to 4.1% against expectations of an unchanged reading.
- Wage growth showed signs of cooling. Average hourly earnings advanced by 0.3% on month-on-month basis, decelerating from May's 0.4%, in line with expectations.
- Annually, average hourly earnings were 3.9% higher compared to June 2023, declining from May's 4.1% and matching expectations.
- 上個月非農就業人數增加了20.6萬人，比5月份下降了12,000人，但高於經濟學家預期的18.9萬人，預測從15萬到23.7萬不等。
- 失業率從4％小幅上升至4.1％，而預期數據將保持不變。
- 工資增長顯示出降溫的跡象。平均小時收入同比增長0.3％，低於5月份的0.4％，符合預期。
- 與2023年6月相比，每年的平均小時收入增長了3.9％，低於5月份的4.1％，符合預期。
| June 2024 | Consensus | May 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | 206,000 | 189,000 | 218,000 (downwardly revised from 272,000) |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 4% | 4% |
| Average hourly earnings (m/m) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Average hourly earnings (y/y) | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% |
| 2024 年 6 月 | 共識 | 2024 年 5 月 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 非農就業人數 | 206,000 | 189,000 | 218,000 （從 272,000 向下修訂） |
| 失業率 | 4.1% | 4% | 4% |
| 平均時薪 (m/m) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 平均時薪（y/y） | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% |
Market Reactions
市場反應
Before the June jobs report, traders had assigned a 73% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and factored in 52 basis points of cuts — implying two rate cuts — by the end of the year.
在6月就業報告發布之前，交易員認爲聯儲局在9月份降息的可能性爲73％，並在年底之前考慮了52個點子的降息——這意味着兩次降息。
The cooler-than-expected labor market data increases the likelihood the Federal Reserve will reduce borrowing costs if inflation trends remain benign, to avoid an undue economic hurdle.
低於預期的勞動力市場數據增加了聯儲局在通貨膨脹趨勢保持良性的情況下降低借貸成本的可能性，以避免不必要的經濟障礙。
The market reacted positively to the June jobs report. The dollar and Treasury yields fell, indicating growing confidence in imminent interest rate cuts. Futures on major U.S. indices rose in Friday's premarket trading.
市場對6月份的就業報告反應積極。美元和美國國債收益率下降，表明人們對即將降息的信心增強。美國主要指數期貨在週五的盤前交易中上漲。
On Tuesday, ahead of the Fourth of July market closure, major equity averages, as tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), closed at record highs.
週二，在7月4日市場收盤之前，景順QQ信託（納斯達克股票代碼：QQQ）和SPDR標準普爾500指數ETF信託（紐約證券交易所代碼：SPY）追蹤的主要股票平均指數收於歷史新高。
Read now:
立即閱讀：
- Wall Street On 'Wait-And-Watch' Mode Ahead Of Jobs Data, Bitcoin Plummets, Tesla Extends Climb: Analyst Flags 2 Factors That Pose Risk To Rally
- 在就業數據公佈之前，華爾街處於 “觀望” 模式，比特幣暴跌，特斯拉延續攀升：分析師指出了構成反彈風險的兩個因素
Photo via Shutterstock.
照片來自 Shutterstock。