Bank Earnings Preview: Analyst Reveals 3 Favorites, But Downgrades JPMorgan And 2 Others
Bank Earnings Preview: Analyst Reveals 3 Favorites, But Downgrades JPMorgan And 2 Others
As Wall Street gears up for the Q2 earnings season, all eyes are on three major banks set to report their results on Friday, July 12: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C), and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC).
隨着華爾街進入Q2季度盈利季，所有目光都聚焦於7月12日星期五公佈其成果的三家主要銀行：摩根大通（NYSE：JPM），花旗集團（NYSE：C）和富國銀行（NYSE：WFC）。
Wolfe Research recently released a comprehensive analysis of the upcoming bank earnings, highlighting potential winners and underperformers in the sector.
Wolfe Research最近發佈了一份關於未來銀行業盈利的全面分析，重點分析了板塊中的潛在贏家和表現不佳者。
Steven Chubak, analyst at Wolfe Research, shared updated preferences on bank stocks in a detailed note this past Sunday.
Wolfe Research的分析師Steven Chubak在上週日的詳細論文中分享了有關銀行股票的更新偏好。
At the start of the year, Wolfe Research was bullish on banks benefiting from a prolonged period of high-interest rates, particularly JPMorgan. However, with the Federal Reserve likely to begin easing rates, the outlook has shifted.
在年初，Wolfe Research看好銀行股從長期高利率受益，特別是看好摩根大通。然而，隨着聯邦儲備委員會可能開始降息，前景已經發生了變化。
Wolfe Research's Top Picks
Wolfe Research的首選股票
Chubak's revised strategy now emphasizes banks and brokers with unique Net Interest Income (NII) advantages and attractive valuations relative to growth. His top picks include Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Charles Schwab Corp. (NYSE:SCHW), and LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LPLA).
Chubak的修訂策略現在強調具有獨特淨利息收入（NII）優勢和有吸引力估值相對於增長的銀行和券商。他的首選股包括美國銀行（NYSE：BAC），嘉信理財股份有限公司（NYSE：SCHW）和LPL財務控股公司（NASDAQ：LPLA）。
- Bank of America: Expected to benefit from asset repricing and liability optimization, with a projected 13% upside to 2026 earnings estimates.
- Charles Schwab: Favored for its strong seasonality in the second half of the year and significant upside potential of approximately 35% to 2026 consensus estimates.
- LPL Financial: Highlighted for its widening organic growth gap compared to peers and benefits from a steeper yield curve.
- 美國銀行：預計受到資產重新定價和負債優化的惠及，預計2026年盈利預測將增長13％。
- 嘉信理財：因其下半年強勁的季節性和約35％的2026年共識估值潛力而備受青睞。
- LPL財務控股公司：因與同行相比擴大的有機增長差距和利益於更陡峭的收益率曲線而受到關注。
Chubak emphasizes that retail brokers remain a preferred sub-sector within the rate-sensitive coverage due to better fundamentals and seasonally stronger performance in the second half of the year. However, he remains cautious on certain names due to evolving market dynamics and competitive pressures.
Chubak強調，由於更好的基本面和下半年季節性表現更強，零售經紀商仍然是利率敏感類別中的首選子部門。但是，由於市場動態和競爭壓力的不斷演變，他對某些名稱仍然持謹慎態度。
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閱讀也可參考：分析師稱英偉達可能在2025年賺取5美元每股，供應檢查較兩個月前顯著增加
Here's a breakdown of Wolfe Research's top picks and their potential upside:
以下是Wolfe Research的首選股票及其潛在上漲空間：
| Bank | Previous Rating | New Rating | Old PT | New PT | Current Price | Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of America | Outperform | Outperform | $42 | $49 | $40.41 | 21% |
| Charles Schwab Corp. | Outperform | Outperform | $82 | $90 | $73.20 | 23% |
| LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | Outperform | Outperform | $326 | $347 | $276.01 | 26% |
| 銀行 | 上一個評級 | 新評級 | 舊價格目標 | 新價格目標 | 現價 | 上行/下行空間 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 美國銀行 | 跑贏大盤 | 跑贏大盤 | $42 | $49 | $40.41 | 21% |
| 嘉信理財 | 跑贏大盤 | 跑贏大盤 | $82 | $90 | $73.20 | 23% |
| LPL財務控股公司 | 跑贏大盤 | 跑贏大盤 | $326 | $347 | $276.01 | 26% |
Wolfe Research's Downgrades
沃爾夫研究的下調評級
The report also includes some notable downgrades:
該報告還包括一些值得注意的下調評級：
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM): Downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform due to concerns over its exposure to rate cuts and its stretched valuation following a significant rally. Chubak notes that while JPMorgan has outperformed significantly, the stock's valuation now appears stretched, and potential rate cuts could impact its NII.
- Raymond James Financial (NYSE:RJF): Downgraded to Peer Perform due to emerging risks affecting its growth, including net new asset headwinds and compensation pressures.
- State Street Corp. (NYSE:STT): Downgraded to Underperform as it faces significant downside risk to 2026 consensus estimates, despite positive EPS revisions.
- 摩根大通（JPM）：由於對降息的暴露和顯著上漲後的估值被拉伸的擔憂，從跑贏大盤下調至與大盤持平。 Chubak指出，儘管摩根大通表現顯著，但股票估值現在似乎被拉伸，潛在的降息可能會影響其NII。
- 瑞傑金融（紐交所：RJF）：由於新興風險影響其成長，包括淨新資產不足和薪酬壓力，從跑贏大盤下調至與大盤持平。
- 道富銀行（紐交所：STT）：儘管EPS呈現積極修正，但仍面臨着2026年共識預測的重大下行風險，因此從賣出評級下調。
Here's a detailed table summarizing the downgrades:
以下是總結下調評級的詳細表格：
| Bank | Previous Rating | New Rating | Old PT | New PT | Current Price | Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase | Outperform | Peer Perform | $216 | $226 | $204.79 | 10% |
| Raymond James Financial | Outperform | Peer Perform | $140 | $135 | $119.51 | 13% |
| State Street | Peer Perform | Underperform | $81 | $73 | $73.72 | -1% |
| 銀行 | 上一個評級 | 新評級 | 舊價格目標 | 新價格目標 | 現價 | 上行/下行空間 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 摩根大通 | 跑贏大盤 | 同業表現 | $216 | $226 | $204.79 | 10% |
| 瑞傑金融 | 跑贏大盤 | 同業表現 | 140美元 | $135 | $119.51 | 13% |
| 道富銀行 | 同業表現 | 弱於市場表現 | $81 | $73 | $73.72 | -1% |
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